Nowcasting and forecasting global aging and cancer burden:analysis of data from the GLOBOCAN and Global Burden of Disease Study

Objective:To analyze the impact of global population aging on cancer epidemiology,with a focus on the incidence and mortality rates among individuals aged 60 years and above.Methods:We utilized open-source data,retrieving population age estimates from the United Nations Population Division website.The GLOBOCAN 2020 database provided estimates for cancer cases and deaths in 2020 and 2040,while the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database supplied estimates of new cancer cases worldwide from 2000 to 2019.Inclusion criteria considered individuals aged 60 years and over,focusing on the top five deadliest cancers.The cohort-component method was employed for population prediction,with age-specific incidence and mortality rates estimated for 2020 used to forecast the cancer burden.Results:In 2021,the global population aged over 60 years accounted for 13.7%,with Europe/North America and Australia/New Zealand having the highest proportions.The older population is predicted to reach 19.2%by 2040.In 2020,of the 19.3 million new cancer cases worldwide,64%occurred in individuals aged 60 and above,contributing to 71.3%of cancer-related deaths.The five most common cancer sites were the lung,colorectum,prostate,breast,and stomach.Cancer incidence and deaths are projected to rise significantly among older indi-viduals,reaching 20.7 million new cases and 12.7 million deaths by 2040.Older age,tobacco use,dietary factors,alcohol consumption,and high body mass index(BMI)were identified as major risk factors for various cancers in this demographic.Conclusions:This study reveals a significant rise in cancer incidence and mortality among the elderly due to global population aging.The urgency for targeted interventions in cancer prevention,screening,and treatment for older individuals is emphasized.Despite acknowledged limitations,these findings contribute valuable insights to inform strategies for managing cancer in the elderly amidst evolving demographic trends.

Disparities in stage at diagnosis for liver cancer in China

Background:The stage at diagnosis is a major factor in making treatment strategies and cancer control policies.However,the stage distribution for liver cancer in China was not well studied.In this multi-center hospital-based study,we aimed to identify the distribution and factors associated with stage at diagnosis for liver cancer in China.Methods:We included patients diagnosed with primary liver cancer in 13 hospitals of 10 provinces covering various geographic and socioeconomic populations during 2016-2017 in China.The stage distribution overall,and by sex and age at diagnosis were analyzed.We used logistic regression to identify the factors associated with stage Ⅲ-Ⅳ disease.We further compared these estimates with data from the USA.Results:We included 2,991 patients with known stage at diagnosis in China.The proportion of patients diagnosed with stageⅠ,Ⅱ,Ⅲ,and Ⅳ was 17.5%,25.6%,29.3%,and 27.6%,respectively.The proportion of stage Ⅲ-Ⅳ cases was higher in women[65.1%vs 54.9%,adjusted odds ratio(OR)=1.5,95%CI:1.2,1.8]and those≥60 years(61.6%vs 52.8%,OR=1.4,95%CI:1.2,1.6).We found an increased risk of stage Ⅲ-Ⅳ among drinkers and those without a family history of cancer.Compared to the USA,our study population had a substantially higher proportion of stage Ⅲ-Ⅳ cases(56.9%vs 45.6%).Conclusion:The disparities in liver cancer stage at diagnosis among different populations within China,and between China and the USA,imply the necessity for improving cancer awareness and early detection for liver cancer in China.