Although, there are numerous empirical studies that explore option pricing on vacant land, there is hardly such study based on a South African case study. Moreover, phenomena observed in certain countries are not alwa...Although, there are numerous empirical studies that explore option pricing on vacant land, there is hardly such study based on a South African case study. Moreover, phenomena observed in certain countries are not always prevalent due to different economic circumstances. This case study explores option value emerging on vacant land due to office building in the Northern Suburbs of Johannesburg, South Africa （ZA） because land value ＂increased＂ in ＂price＂. Since late 1990s, Northern Suburbs are one of the most expensive areas of Johannesburg. Samuelson-McKean （1965） model is used to calculate option value on vacant land （Geltner ＆ Miller, 2001） and the model is used to estimate option values, first, when there are no costs, then when total costs are taken into account and lastly, when improvements are taken into account. The results are synonymous with option pricing theory （OPT） in sense that costs and land improvements increase option value; however, the impact of fixed costs on option value is debatable as fixed costs lead to an increase in option value while according to OPT they should not as fixed costs could easily be ＂hedged＂.展开更多
文摘Although, there are numerous empirical studies that explore option pricing on vacant land, there is hardly such study based on a South African case study. Moreover, phenomena observed in certain countries are not always prevalent due to different economic circumstances. This case study explores option value emerging on vacant land due to office building in the Northern Suburbs of Johannesburg, South Africa （ZA） because land value ＂increased＂ in ＂price＂. Since late 1990s, Northern Suburbs are one of the most expensive areas of Johannesburg. Samuelson-McKean （1965） model is used to calculate option value on vacant land （Geltner ＆ Miller, 2001） and the model is used to estimate option values, first, when there are no costs, then when total costs are taken into account and lastly, when improvements are taken into account. The results are synonymous with option pricing theory （OPT） in sense that costs and land improvements increase option value; however, the impact of fixed costs on option value is debatable as fixed costs lead to an increase in option value while according to OPT they should not as fixed costs could easily be ＂hedged＂.
