Implications of Climate Change on Streamflow of a Snow-Fed River System of the Northwest Himalaya

Air temperature and snow cover variability are sensitive indicators of climate change. This study was undertaken to forecast and quantify the potential streamflow response to climate change in the Jhelum River basin. The implications of air temperature trends (+0.11°C/decade) reported for the entire north-west Himalaya for past century and the regional warming (+0.7°C/decade) trends of three observatories analyzed between last two decades were used for future projection of snow cover depletion and stream flow. The streamflow was simulated and validated for the year 2007-2008 using snowmelt runoff model (SRM) based on in-situ temperature and precipitation with remotely sensed snow cover area. The simulation was repeated using higher values of temperature and modified snow cover depletion curves according to the assumed future climate. Early snow cover depletion was observed in the basin in response to warmer climate. The results show that with the increase in air temperature, streamflow pattern of Jhelum will be severely affected. Significant redistribution of streamflow was observed in both the scenarios. Higher discharge was observed during spring-summer months due to early snowmelt contribution with water deficit during monsoon months. Discharge increased by 5% 40% during the months of March to May in 2030 and 2050. The magnitude of impact of air temperature is higher in the scenario-2 based on regional warming. The inferences pertaining to change in future streamflow pattern can facilitate long term decisions and planning concerning hydro-power potential, waterresource management and flood hazard mapping in the region.

Snow Cover Variation and Streamflow Simulation in a Snow-fed River Basin of the Northwest Himalaya

Snowmelt is an important component of any snow-fed river system.The Jhelum River is one such transnational mountain river flowing through India and Pakistan.The basin is minimally glacierized and its discharge is largely governed by seasonal snow cover and snowmelt.Therefore,accurate estimation of seasonal snow cover dynamics and snowmeltinduced runoff is important for sustainable water resource management in the region.The present study looks into spatio-temporal variations of snow cover for past decade and stream flow simulation in the Jhelum River basin.Snow cover extent(SCE) was estimated using MODIS(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer) sensor imageries.Normalized Difference Snow Index(NDSI) algorithm was used to generate multi-temporal time series snow cover maps.The results indicate large variation in snow cover distribution pattern and decreasing trend in different sub-basins of the Jhelum River.The relationship between SCE-temperature,SCE-discharge and discharge-precipitation was analyzed for different seasons and shows strong correlation.For streamflow simulation of the entire Jhelum basin Snow melt Runoff Model(SRM) used.A good correlation was observed between simulated stream flow and in-situ discharge.The monthly discharge contribution from different sub-basins to the total discharge of the Jhelum River was estimated using a modified version of runoff model based on temperature-index approach developed for small watersheds.Stream power - an indicator of the erosive capability of streams was also calculated for different sub-basins.

Behavior of ring footing resting on reinforced sand subjected to eccentric-inclined loading

Ring footings are suitable for the structures like tall transmission towers, chimneys, silos and oil storages.These types of structures are susceptible to horizontal loads(wind load) in addition to their dead weight.In the literature, very little or no effort has been made to study the effect of ring footing resting on reinforced sand when subjected to eccentric, inclined and/or eccentric-inclined loadings. This paper aims to study the behavior of ring footing resting on loose sand and/or compacted randomly distributed fiberreinforced sand(RDFS) when subjected to eccentric(0 B, 0.05 B and 0.1 B, where B is the outer diameter of ring footing), inclined(0°,5°,10°, 15°,-5°,-10° and-15°)and eccentric-inclined loadings by using a finite element(FE) software PLAXIS 3 D. The behavior of ring footing is studied by using a dimensionless factor called reduction factor(RF). The numerical model used in the PLAXIS 3 D has been validated by conducting model plate load tests. Moreover, an empirical expression using regression analysis has been presented which will be helpful in plotting a load-settlement curve for the ring footing.