基于熵权法—PSR模型的重庆市大气污染治理政策效果评价

采用PSR模型构建重庆市大气污染治理政策效果评价指标体系,通过熵权法与综合指数法对政策效果综合评价,并引进障碍度模型进行障碍因子判断。结果表明,重庆市大气污染治理政策效果显著提升,大气环境质量得到明显改善,压力、状态、响应层面总体上取得了较满意的效果;工业废气排放持续有效控制尚需加强和人均机动车保有量持续增加,NO_(2)、O_(3)污染物排放控制力度需要加强;缺乏较为完善的大气环境污染协同防治体系,是制约重庆市大气污染治理政策效果的重要障碍因素。因此,加强工业氮氧化物和挥发性有机物的深度治理、加强新生产和在用汽车排放管理和完善“政-企-民”协同防治体系,是进一步提升大气污染治理政策效果主要着力点。

The Longmen Cloud Physics Field Experiment Base, China Meteorological Administration

Aiming at the needs of mechanism analysis of rainstorms and development of numerical prediction models in south China, the Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration and the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences jointly set up the Longmen Cloud Physics Field Experiment Base,China Meteorological Administration. This paper introduces the instruments and field experiments of this base, provides an overview of the recent advances in retrieval algorithms of microphysical parameters, improved understanding of microphysical characteristics, as well as the formation mechanisms and numerical prediction of heavy rainfalls in south China based on the field experiments dataset.

广东两次飑线过程的微物理特征分析研究

基于中国气象局龙门云物理野外科学试验基地2DVD(Two-Dimensional Video Disdrometer)雨滴谱观测资料,分析广东地区2017年5月4日(槽前型飑线)和2017年8月22日(东风型飑线)两次不同飑线系统不同降水类型的雨滴谱特征。根据雨强和雷达反射率随时间变化将降水分成对流降水和层云降水,同时以20 mm/h为阈值将对流降水划分为对流前沿、对流中心和对流后沿。结果表明,两次飑线系统在不同降水时期的微物理特征参数变化有所差异。槽前型飑线过程中,对流降水的粒子分布较为分散,中等粒径的粒子比重较高,且对流区前半部分粒子尺寸大于“大陆性”对流特征,后半部分粒子尺寸小于“海洋性”对流特征;层云降水的粒子分布较为集中,小粒径粒子居多。而东风型飑线整个降水时期基本上是由高浓度中小粒径粒子组成,降水粒子粒径分布较为集中,对流降水粒子介于“海洋性”和“大陆性”对流区之间。

一次华南海岸带台前飑线的结构特征与环境条件的观测研究

2007年8月8日,热带风暴"帕布"移动到华南近海,在珠江三角洲至湛江以西地区出现了一次强飑线天气过程。根据多普勒天气雷达、风廓线雷达和气象探空等观测数据,分析此次台前飑线的生成、演变过程、组织结构以及环境大气条件特征,并对热带风暴"帕布"与台前飑线环境大气的关系进行初步探讨。观测和分析结果显示:(1)此次台前飑线系统是由孤立的对流单体逐渐发展而成,陆风环流的抬升作用有可能对飑线的初始生成起到重要作用;(2)台前飑线移动路径和强度受海岸附近环境条件的影响;在海岸靠近陆地一侧的强度远比内陆和海洋上强,移动路径倾向于沿海岸线平行;(3)台前飑线在发展和成熟阶段,其水平结构具有典型的尾流层云降水特征;其冷池强度和垂直结构具有典型的热带飑线特征;(4)台前飑线发生在具有深厚水汽层、对流凝结高度较低的环境大气条件中,与热带飑线的环境大气条件类似;而对流不稳定能量和低层垂直风切变强度与中纬度飑线接近;(5)热带气旋外围大风一方面使低层风切变加强,同时为环境大气提供了高层的水汽。在下沉环流区内太阳辐射使陆地明显增温,一方面使位势不稳定能量增大,另一方面也使海陆温差增大、海风环流加强,导致低层风切变进一步加强,低层水汽输送增大。下沉逆温抑制了低层弱对流的发生,为强对流的发展积累了对流不稳定能量。

基于WRF-EnKF系统的雷达反射率直接同化对台风“天鸽”（1713）预报的影响

利用基于中尺度数值模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecast)的集合卡尔曼滤波(EnKF,Ensemble Kalman Filter)同化系统直接同化广东地区雷达反射率资料,对2017年台风“天鸽”(1713,Hato)近海发展以及降水预报效果进行数值模拟分析研究。结果显示,直接同化雷达反射率资料后,台风的回波强度和范围有了明显改善,可更好地调整水汽场、水凝物和温度场。当台风风场和水汽场调整后,进入台风主体部分的水汽量显著增加,使得台风强度增强,台风中心最低海平面气压降低,与实况更接近。同化雷达反射率资料后,6 h和24 h降水强度和落区预报效果有显著改善,尤其是能提高大暴雨和特大暴雨量级的TS评分,此外地面2 m温度和2 m相对湿度的预报效果也有改进。

脂联素水平对AMI患者急诊PCI术后心脏功能及临床预后的影响

目的探讨脂联素水平对急性心肌梗死(AMI)患者急诊经皮冠状动脉介入治疗(PCI)术后心脏功能及临床预后的影响。方法连续入选2012年5月~2015年5月于河南大学淮河医院心内科收治行急诊PCI治疗的AMI患者110例,根据脂联素水平分为两组,其中A组76例(血清脂联素<8.5 mg/L);B组34例(血清脂联素≥8.5 mg/L)。比较两组患者实验室相关指标、超声心动图指标、冠状动脉造影检查指标、主要心血管事件(MACE)发生率及死亡率等。结果两组患者肌酐、尿素氮、超敏C反应蛋白、三酰甘油、总胆固醇、低密度脂蛋白胆固醇、高密度脂蛋白胆固醇、载脂蛋白A及载脂蛋白B水平比较差异无统计学意义(P>0.05);B组患者空腹血糖水平显著低于A组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。两组患者左房内径和左室舒张末内径水平比较差异无统计学意义(P>0.05);B组患者左室射血分数水平显著高于A组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。两组患者病变动脉支数、梗阻血管位置及冠状动脉TIMI分级比较差异无统计学意义(P>0.05);B组患者校正TIMI水平显著低于A组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。两组患者住院和随访6个月死亡率比较差异无统计学意义(P>0.05);B组患者住院和随访6个月MACE发生率均显著低于A组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论高脂联素水平可有效降低AMI患者急诊PCI术后MACE发生风险,改善心脏功能。

基于2017年5月7日广州特大暴雨分析影响半径对集合卡尔曼滤波方法同化效果的影响

集合卡尔曼滤波(EnKF)目前在资料同化的科研和业务中已得到广泛应用,可为集合预报提供较好的初始场,其影响半径的选取对同化结果影响显著。2017年5月7日在珠三角(珠江三角洲)一带出现极强降水,尤以广州的花都、黄埔、增城区为盛,甚至出现了极为罕见的特大暴雨。以本次极强降水过程为例,分析影响半径对EnKF同化效果的影响。结果发现利用EnKF方法同化观测站的10 m风和2 m温度资料后,可以较好地模拟出此次强降水过程,但仍存在着位置偏南,强度偏大,局地虚报和过报的现象。当水平影响半径取值过大时,大量虚假信息引入,产生过犹不及的效果,使得强降水过程南移较快,最终导致降水落区显著偏南偏东。且水平影响半径对模拟效果极为重要,因此取值要适当。

THE EFFECT OF SAMPLE OPTIMIZATION ON THE ENSEMBLE KALMAN FILTER IN FORECASTING TYPHOON RAMMASUN(2014)

In a limited number of ensembles, some samples do not adequately reflect the true atmospheric state and can in turn affect forecast performance. This study explored the feasibility of sample optimization using the ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF) for a simulation of the 2014 Super Typhoon Rammasun, which made landfall in southern China in July 2014. Under the premise of sufficient ensemble spread, keeping samples with a good fit to observations and eliminating those with poor fit can affect the performance of En KF. In the sample optimization, states were selected based on the sample spatial correlation between the ensemble state and observations. The method discarded ensemble states that were less representative and, to maintain the overall ensemble size, generated new ensemble states by reproducing them from ensemble states with a good fit by adding random noise. Sample selection was performed based on radar echo data. Results showed that applying En KF with optimized samples improved the estimated track, intensity,precipitation distribution, and inner-core structure of Typhoon Rammasun. Therefore, the authors proposed that distinguishing between samples with good and poor fits is vital for ensemble prediction, suggesting that sample optimization is necessary to the effective use of En KF.

Raindrop Size Distribution Parameters Retrieved from Xinfeng C-Band Polarimetric Radar Observations

The objective of this research was to acquire a raindrop size distribution(DSDs)retrieved from C-band polarimetric radar observations scheme for the first time in south China.An observation period of the precipitation process was selected,and the shape-slope(μ-Λ)relationship of this region was statistically analyzed using the raindrop sample observations from the two-dimensional video disdrometer(2DVD)at Xinfeng Station,Guangdong Province.Simulated data of the C-band polarimetric radar reflectivity ZHHand differential reflectivity ZDRwere obtained through scattering simulation.The simulation data were combined with DSD fitting to determine the ZDR-Λand log10(ZHH/N0)-Λrelationships.Using Xinfeng C-band polarimetric radar observations ZDRand ZHH,the raindrop Gamma size distribution parametersμ,Λ,and N0were retrieved.A scheme for using C-band polarimetric radar to retrieve the DSDs was developed.This research revealed that during precipitation process,the DSDs obtained using the C-band polarimetric radar retrieval scheme are similar to the 2DVD observations,the precipitation characteristics of rainfall intensity(R),mass-weighted mean diameter(Dm)and intercept parameter(Nw)with time obtained by radar retrieval are basically consistent with the observational results of the 2DVD.This scheme establishes the relationship between the observations of the C-band polarimetric radar and the physical quantities of the numerical model.This method not only can test the prediction of the model data assimilation system on the convective scale and determine error sources,but also can improve the microphysical precipitation processes analysis and radar quantitative precipitation estimation.The present research will facilitate radar data assimilation in the future.

AN OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS OF A TORRENTIAL RAINSTORM IN THE WARM SECTOR OF SOUTH CHINA COASTAL AREAS

On May 20 th 2007, a brief but severe downpour rainstorm occurred in the coastal areas of Maoming and Yangjiang with rainfall of 115 mm per hour. Data from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis with 1°×1° resolution, Doppler weather radar, conventional surface observations, high-altitude radiosonde and wind profiler radar were used to analyze characteristics and contributions of synoptic scale and mesoscale systems during this torrential rainstorm. The results showed that:(1) the storm was caused by a quasi-linear mesoscale convective system(MCS) and the slow-movement of this system was the primary trigger of the torrential downpour;(2) water vapor was abundant, nearly saturated and in steady state throughout the atmosphere before the storm; intrusion of the weak dry and cold air in the middle level and a striking "dry above and wet below " structure had increased the atmospheric instability;(3) low-level southwesterly airflow from a low pressure(trough) at the Beibu Gulf provided abundant water vapor at the onset of the rainstorm; a deep dry layer was formed by dry and cold air behind the high-level trough, which facilitated latent heat release;upper-level divergence and low-level convergence circulations also provided vertical uplift for warm and moist air at the lower level;(4) Topography only played a minor role as the MCS developed and strengthened over relatively flat coastal terrain. Low level density flow induced by convection triggered new convective cell generation at the leading edge of the convective system, thereby playing a key role in the change of temperature gradient at lower layers, and resulting in strengthening atmospheric instability.

Kinematics and Microphysical Characteristics of the First Intense Rainfall Convective Storm Observed by Jiangsu Polarimetric Radar Network

The polarimetric radar network in Jiangsu Province has just been operationalized since 2020.The first intense precipitation event observed by this polarimetric radar network and disdrometer occurred during August 28-29,2020 and caused severe flooding and serious damage in eastern Jiangsu Province.The microphysics and kinetics for this heavy precipitation convective storm is diagnosed in this study,in order to promote the application of this polarimetric radar network.Drop size distribution(DSD)of this event is estimated from measurements of a ground disdrometer,and the corresponding three-dimensional atmospheric microphysical features are obtained from the multiple polarimetric radars.According to features of updraft and lighting,the evolution of the convective storm is divided into four stages:developing,mature with lightning,mature without lightning and dissipating.The DSD of this event is featured by a large number of raindrops and a considerable number of large raindrops.The microphysical characteristics are similar to those of warm-rain process,and ice-phase microphysical processes are active in the mature stages.The composite vertical structure of the convective storm indicates that deep ZDR and KDP columns coincide with strong updrafts during both mature stages.The hierarchical microphysical structure retrieved by the Hydrometeor Identification Algorithm(HID)shows that depositional growth has occurred above the melting level,and aggregation is the most widespread ice-phase process at the-10℃level or higher.During negative lightning activity,the presence of strongest updrafts and a large amount of ice-phase graupel by riming between the 0℃and-35℃layers generate strong negative electric fields within the cloud.These convective storms are typical warm clouds with very high precipitation efficiency,which cause high concentration of raindrops,especially the presence of large raindrops within a short period of time.The ice-phase microphysical processes above the melting layer also play an important role in the triggering and enhancing of precipitation.

Assimilation of Polarimetric Radar Data Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter for the Analysis and Forecast of Tropical Storm Ewiniar(2018)

This study explores the potential for directly assimilating polarimetric radar data(including reflectivity Z and differential reflectivity Z_(DR))using an ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF)based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model to improve analysis and forecast of Tropical Storm Ewiniar(2018).Ewiniar weakened but brought about heavy rainfall over Guangdong,China after its final landfall.In the present study,two experiments are performed,one assimilating only Z and the other assimilating both Z and Z_(DR).Assimilation of Z_(DR)together with Z effectively modifies hydrometeor fields,and improves the forecast of the intensity,shape and position of rainbands.Forecast of 24-hour extraordinary rainfall≥250 mm is significantly improved.Improvement can also be seen in the wind fields because of cross-variable covariance.The current study shows the possibility of applying polarimetric radar data to improve forecasting of tropical cyclones,which deserves more research in the future.

Occurrences of Wintertime Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific under the Background of Global Warming

Using tropical cyclone （TC） observations over a 58-yr period （1949-2006） from the China Meteorological Administration, the 40-year ECMWF Reanalysis （ERA-40）, NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, and the Hadley Centre sea ice and sea surface temperature （HadISST） datasets, the authors have examined the behaviors of tropical cyclones （TCs） in the western north Pacific （WNP） in boreal winter （November-December-January-February）. The results demonstrate that the occurrences of wintertime TCs, including super typhoons, have decreased over the 58 years. More TCs are found to move westward than northeastward, and the annual total number of parabolic-track-type TCs is found to be decreasing. It is shown that negative sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） related to La Nifia events in the equatorial central Pacific facilitate more TC genesis in the WNP region. Large-scale anomalous cyclonic circulations in the tropical WNP in the lower troposphere are observed to be favorable for cyclogenesis in this area. On the contrary, the positive SSTAs and anomalous anticyclonic circulations that related to E1 Nifio events responsible for fewer TC genesis. Under the background of global warming, the western Pacific subtropical high tends to intensify and to expand more westward in the WNP, and the SSTAs display an increasing trend in the equatorial eastern-central Pacific. These climate trends of both atmospheric circulation and SSTAs affect wintertime TCs, inducing fewer TC occurrences and causing more TCs to move westward.

SAMPLE OPTIMIZATION OF ENSEMBLE FORECAST TO SIMULATE TROPICAL STORMS(MERBOK, MAWAR, AND GUCHOL) USING THE OBSERVED TRACK

Nowadays,ensemble forecasting is popular in numerical weather prediction(NWP).However,an ensemble may not produce a perfect Gaussian probability distribution due to limited members and the fact that some members significantly deviate from the true atmospheric state.Therefore,event samples with small probabilities may downgrade the accuracy of an ensemble forecast.In this study,the evolution of tropical storms(weak typhoon)was investigated and an observed tropical storm track was used to limit the probability distribution of samples.The ensemble forecast method used pure observation data instead of assimilated data.In addition,the prediction results for three tropical storm systems,Merbok,Mawar,and Guchol,showed that track and intensity errors could be reduced through sample optimization.In the research,the vertical structures of these tropical storms were compared,and the existence of different thermal structures was discovered.One possible reason for structural differences is sample optimization,and it may affect storm intensity and track.

Impacts of a Large-scale Adaptive Blending Scheme for CMA-MESO on Regional Forecasts-A Case Study of Typhoon Haima

Large-scale atmospheric information plays an important role in the regional model for the forecasts of weather such as tropical cyclone(TC).However,it is difficult to be fully represented in regional models due to domain size and a lack of observation data,particularly at sea used in regional data assimilation.Blending analysis has been developed and implemented in regional models to reintroduce large-scale information from global model to regional analysis.Research of the impact of this large-scale blending scheme for the Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System(CMA-MESO)regional model on TC forecasting is limited and this study attempts to further progress by examining the adaptivity of the blending scheme using the two-dimensional Discrete Cosine Transform(2D-DCT)filter on the model forecast of Typhoon Haima over Shenzhen,China in 2016 and considering various cut-off wavelengths.Results showed that the error of the 24-hour typhoon track forecast can be reduced to less than 25 km by applying the scale-dependent blending scheme,indicating that the blending analysis is effectively able to minimise the large-scale bias for the initial fields.The improvement of the wind forecast is more evident for u-wind component according to the reduced root mean square errors(RMSEs)by comparing the experiments with and without blending analysis.Furthermore,the higher equitable threat score(ETS)provided implications that the precipitation prediction skills were increased in the 24h forecast by improving the representation of the large-scale feature in the CMA-MESO analysis.Furthermore,significant differences of the track error forecast were found by applying the blending analysis with different cut-off wavelengths from 400 km to 1200 km and the track error can be reduced less than by 10 km with 400 km cut-off wavelength in the first 6h forecast.It highlighted that the blending scheme with dynamic cut-off wavelengths adapted to the development of different TC systems is necessary in order to optimally introduce and ingest the large-scale information from global model to the regional model for improving the TC forecast.In this paper,the methods and data applied in this study will be firstly introduced,before discussion of the results regarding the performance of the blending analysis and its impacts on the wind and precipitation forecast correspondingly,followed by the discussion of the effects of different blending scheme on TC forecasts and the conclusion section.

SPATIOTEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION CHARACTERISTICS AND VARIATION TRENDS OF HIERARCHICAL PRECIPITATION IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE OVER THE PAST 50 YEARS

The climatic characteristics of the precipitation in Guangdong province over the past 50 years were analyzed based on the daily rainfall datasets of 86 stations from 1961 to 2010. The rainfall was divided into five categories according to its intensity, and their spatiotemporal characteristics and variation trends were investigated. The annual rainfall amount was within 1,500 to 2,000 mm over most parts of Guangdong, but substantial differences of rainfall amount and rainy days were found among different parts of the province. There were many rainy days in the dry seasons （October to March）, but the daily rainfall amounts are small. The rainy seasons （April to September） have not only many rainy days but also heavy daily rainfall amounts. The spatial distributions of light rainy days （1 mm〈P〈 10 mm） and moderate rainy days （10 mm〈P〈 25 mm） resemble each other. The heavy rainy days （25 mm〈P〈 50 mm）, rainstorm days （50 ram〈P〈 100 mm） and downpour days （P〉 100 mm） are generally concentrated in three regions, Qingyuan, Yangjiang, and Haifeng/Lufeng. The average rainfall amount for rainy days increases form the north to the south of Guangdong, while decreasing as the rainfall intensity increases. The contributions from light, moderate and heavy rain to the total rainfall decreases form the north to the south. The annual rainy days show a decreasing trend in the past 50 years. The light rainy days decreased significantly while the heavy, rainstorm and downpour rainy days increased slightly. The annual total rainfall amount increased over the past 50 years, which was contributed by heavy, rainstorm and downpour rains, while the contribution from light and moderate rains decreased. Key words： spatiotemporal distribution; rainfall amount; rainy days; rainfall contribution rate

OPERATIONAL FORECAST OF RAINFALL INDUCED BY LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES ALONG GUANGDONG COAST

Following previous studies of the rainfall forecast in Shenzhen owing to landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs),a nonparametric statistical scheme based on the classification of the landfalling TCs is applied to analyze and forecast the rainfall induced by landfalling TCs in the coastal area of Guangdong province,China.All the TCs landfalling with the distance less than 700 kilometers to the 8 coastal stations in Guangdong province during 1950—2013 are categorized according to their landfalling position and intensity.The daily rainfall records of all the 8 meteorological stations are obtained and analyzed.The maximum daily rainfall and the maximum 3 days’accumulated rainfall at the 8 coastal stations induced by each category of TCs during the TC landfall period(a couple of days before and after TC landfalling time)from 1950 to 2013 are computed by the percentile estimation and illustrated by boxplots.These boxplots can be used to estimate the rainfall induced by landfalling TC of the same category in the future.The statistical boxplot scheme is further coupled with the model outputs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)to predict the rainfall induced by landfalling TCs along the coastal area.The TCs landfalling in south China from 2014 to 2017 and the corresponding rainfall at the 8 stations area are used to evaluate the performance of these boxplots and coupled boxplots schemes.Results show that the statistical boxplots scheme and coupled boxplots scheme can perform better than ECMWF model in the operational rainfall forecast along the coastal area in south China.

转底炉用含碳球团制备及生产工艺优化

转底炉直接还原工艺是目前处理含铁锌尘泥工艺的典型代表,能充分利用钢铁尘泥中的铁、碳和锌等物质,生产的金属化球团可返回炼铁/炼钢生产工序,同时可回收氧化锌粉等高附加值资源,成为钢铁企业含铁尘泥处理技术发展的趋势之一。基于某钢铁企业转底炉生产情况,从含碳球团的成型工艺参数及还原焙烧制度等方面进行分析与优化,以期为转底炉处理含铁尘泥工艺的推广和改进提供参考。揭示了压球工艺参数如水分、辊速和压力等对含碳球团的成球性及强度的影响规律,结果表明,3个参数相互作用、紧密相关,建议混合料压球水分、辊轮转速和辊轮压力分别控制为14%、6.0 r/min和2.5×10^(4)N/cm,此时原料的成球性能和球团强度等综合性能最佳;探究了焙烧温度、焙烧时间及摆放位置对金属化球团强度性能、金属化率及脱锌率的影响,结果表明,适当提高焙烧温度和延长焙烧时间使得金属铁连晶增加、渣相填充铁连晶间的孔隙,且金属铁相、浮氏体及渣相连结增强,可提高金属化球团的强度。其中焙烧温度对改善球团微观结构并提高球团抗压强度的作用最为显著,建议焙烧温度设定为1275℃、焙烧时间设定为25 min;摆放方式对还原后球团的平均抗压强度、金属化率和脱锌率等性能的影响较小,但3层摆放较2层摆放而言,会造成各层球团之间性能的差异逐渐增大。