为衡量数值模式对强降水过程的预报能力,选取欧洲中期天气预报中心(the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)数值预报产品、国家气象中心区域中尺度数值预报产品(China Meteorological Administration Mesoscale...为衡量数值模式对强降水过程的预报能力,选取欧洲中期天气预报中心(the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)数值预报产品、国家气象中心区域中尺度数值预报产品(China Meteorological Administration Mesoscale Model,CMA-MESO 3KM)、西南区域中心中尺度模式系统(Southwest Center WRF ADAS Real-time Modeling System,SWC)、国家气象中心全球数值预报系统(China Meteorological Administration for Global Forecast System,CMA-GFS)4个模式预报产品,利用目标对象检验法,对四川2018—2020年共93次强降水过程(≥25 mm·d^(-1))从降水位置、降水面积、降水强度等方面进行检验,在此基础上重点讨论36 h预报时效模式的预报能力。结果表明:(1)随着预报时效越临近,各模式预报平均水平越高,且整体对雨带位置把握较好,更具有参考性。(2)各模式对锋面降水过程预报能力较强,对暖区降水过程预报能力较差。(3)暖区强降水过程可在大尺度模式基础上结合本地中尺度模式进行订正;锋面降水过程则以ECMWF模式预报为基础,参考CMA-MESO 3KM模式对大雨及以上量级降水落区和量级进行调整。展开更多
Land use conflicts(LUCs),as a spatial manifestation of the conflicts in the human-land relationships,have a profound impact on regional sustainable development.For China’s metropolitan junction areas(MJAs),the existe...Land use conflicts(LUCs),as a spatial manifestation of the conflicts in the human-land relationships,have a profound impact on regional sustainable development.For China’s metropolitan junction areas(MJAs),the existence of“administrative district economies”has made the issue of LUCs more prominent.Based on a case study of the central Chengdu–Chongqing region,we conducted an exploratory spatial data analysis of the evolutionary process of regional LUCs.Furthermore,structural equation modeling was utilized to analyze the dynamic mechanism of LUCs in MJAs,with a particular emphasis on exploring the influences of administrative boundary.The results showed that from 2010 to 2020,LUCs in the central Chengdu–Chongqing region continued to worsen,and the spatial process conflict and spatial structure conflict indices increased by more than 30.0%.The intensification of LUCs in the central Chengdu–Chongqing region from 2010 to 2020 was mainly the result of the deterioration of conflicts in evaluation units with low conflict levels.LUCs in China’s metropolitan areas generally presented a circular gradient distribution,weakening from the core to the periphery,but there were some strong isolated conflict zones in the outer regions.LUCs in China’s MJAs were the result of interactions among multiple factors,e.g.,natural environment,socio-economic development,policy and institutional processes,and administrative boundary effects.Administrative boundary affected the flow of socio-economic elements,changing the supply-and-demand competition of stakeholders for land resources,consequently exerting an indirect influence on LUCs.This study advances the theory of the dynamic mechanism of LUCs,and provides theoretical support for the governance of these conflicts in transboundary areas.展开更多
文摘为衡量数值模式对强降水过程的预报能力,选取欧洲中期天气预报中心(the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)数值预报产品、国家气象中心区域中尺度数值预报产品(China Meteorological Administration Mesoscale Model,CMA-MESO 3KM)、西南区域中心中尺度模式系统(Southwest Center WRF ADAS Real-time Modeling System,SWC)、国家气象中心全球数值预报系统(China Meteorological Administration for Global Forecast System,CMA-GFS)4个模式预报产品,利用目标对象检验法,对四川2018—2020年共93次强降水过程(≥25 mm·d^(-1))从降水位置、降水面积、降水强度等方面进行检验,在此基础上重点讨论36 h预报时效模式的预报能力。结果表明:(1)随着预报时效越临近,各模式预报平均水平越高,且整体对雨带位置把握较好,更具有参考性。(2)各模式对锋面降水过程预报能力较强,对暖区降水过程预报能力较差。(3)暖区强降水过程可在大尺度模式基础上结合本地中尺度模式进行订正;锋面降水过程则以ECMWF模式预报为基础,参考CMA-MESO 3KM模式对大雨及以上量级降水落区和量级进行调整。
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42101264,42101200)the Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(CPSF)(GZC20233314)+1 种基金the Chongqing Natural Science Foundation,China(cstc2021jcyj-msxmX0811)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China(2023CDSKXYGG006,2024CDJXY014).
文摘Land use conflicts(LUCs),as a spatial manifestation of the conflicts in the human-land relationships,have a profound impact on regional sustainable development.For China’s metropolitan junction areas(MJAs),the existence of“administrative district economies”has made the issue of LUCs more prominent.Based on a case study of the central Chengdu–Chongqing region,we conducted an exploratory spatial data analysis of the evolutionary process of regional LUCs.Furthermore,structural equation modeling was utilized to analyze the dynamic mechanism of LUCs in MJAs,with a particular emphasis on exploring the influences of administrative boundary.The results showed that from 2010 to 2020,LUCs in the central Chengdu–Chongqing region continued to worsen,and the spatial process conflict and spatial structure conflict indices increased by more than 30.0%.The intensification of LUCs in the central Chengdu–Chongqing region from 2010 to 2020 was mainly the result of the deterioration of conflicts in evaluation units with low conflict levels.LUCs in China’s metropolitan areas generally presented a circular gradient distribution,weakening from the core to the periphery,but there were some strong isolated conflict zones in the outer regions.LUCs in China’s MJAs were the result of interactions among multiple factors,e.g.,natural environment,socio-economic development,policy and institutional processes,and administrative boundary effects.Administrative boundary affected the flow of socio-economic elements,changing the supply-and-demand competition of stakeholders for land resources,consequently exerting an indirect influence on LUCs.This study advances the theory of the dynamic mechanism of LUCs,and provides theoretical support for the governance of these conflicts in transboundary areas.
