模式分辨率对气候模式的模拟效果具有重要影响。然而,当前模式开发对于垂直分辨率的重视不够。以ENSO(厄尔尼诺-南方涛动)遥相关为例,利用CESM(Community Earth System Model)模式,探究不同模式垂直分辨率设置下模式模拟的ENSO对平流层...模式分辨率对气候模式的模拟效果具有重要影响。然而,当前模式开发对于垂直分辨率的重视不够。以ENSO(厄尔尼诺-南方涛动)遥相关为例,利用CESM(Community Earth System Model)模式,探究不同模式垂直分辨率设置下模式模拟的ENSO对平流层、对流层影响的差异,评估模式垂直分辨率在气候模拟中的重要性。结果表明,提高垂直分辨率可以显著改进模式对ENSO遥相关的模拟能力。以ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)第五代再分析数据集(ERA5)为参照,ENSO对纬向平均温度的影响在北半球中高纬地区冬季呈现出“负正负”的三极子模态。CESM默认的垂直分辨率设置(L66)不能模拟出这一模态,而提高模式垂直分辨率(L103)后则可以较好地模拟出这个模态。对于水平分布而言,L66模拟的ENSO在对流层的信号与再分析资料相比明显偏强,L103则可以显著改善。同时,L103对ENSO影响平流层的模拟效果也比L66有所改善。进一步分析发现,L103模拟的行星波从对流层向平流层的传播更强,更接近再分析资料。提高垂直分辨率可以改善模式对大气波活动以及平流层-对流层动力耦合的模拟,重视模式的研发。展开更多
针对评估指标和评估专家权重未知的中型合成营作战能力评估问题,从作战要素的角度建立一种评估指标体系。利用熵权法获得评估指标和专家的权重信息,在传统多准则优化妥协决策(vlse kriterijumska optimizacija i kompromisno resenje,VI...针对评估指标和评估专家权重未知的中型合成营作战能力评估问题,从作战要素的角度建立一种评估指标体系。利用熵权法获得评估指标和专家的权重信息,在传统多准则优化妥协决策(vlse kriterijumska optimizacija i kompromisno resenje,VIKOR)思想的基础上,结合直觉模糊数的计算法则,利用直觉模糊加权平均算子(intuitionistic fuzzy weighted average operator,IFWA)对多个专家的评估结果进行集成,进而对每个合成营的作战能力进行排序,并将其结果与利用TOPSIS方法获得的结果进行比较。结果表明,该模型可靠、准确、稳定。展开更多
We have used a fully coupled chemistry-climate model(WACCM)to investigate the relative importance of the direct and indirect effects of 11a solar variations on stratospheric temperature and ozone.Although the model do...We have used a fully coupled chemistry-climate model(WACCM)to investigate the relative importance of the direct and indirect effects of 11a solar variations on stratospheric temperature and ozone.Although the model does not contain a quasi-biennial oscillation(QBO)and uses fixed sea surface temperature(SST),it is able to produce a second maximum solar response in tropical lower stratospheric(TLS)temperature and ozone of approximately 0.5 K and 3%,respectively.In the TLS,the solar spectral variations in the chemistry scheme play a more important role than solar spectral variations in the radiation scheme in generating temperature and ozone responses.The chemistry effect of solar variations causes significant changes in the Brewer-Dobson(BD)circulation resulting in ozone anomalies in the TLS.The model simulations also show a negative feedback in the upper stratosphere between the temperature and ozone responses.A wavelet analysis of the modeled ozone and temperature time series reveals that the maximum solar responses in ozone and temperature caused by both chemical and radiative effects occur at different altitudes in the upper stratosphere.The analysis also confirms that both the direct radiative and indirect ozone feedback effects are important in generating a solar response in the upper stratospheric temperatures,although the solar spectral variations in the chemistry scheme give the largest solar cycle power in the upper stratospheric temperature.展开更多
文摘模式分辨率对气候模式的模拟效果具有重要影响。然而,当前模式开发对于垂直分辨率的重视不够。以ENSO(厄尔尼诺-南方涛动)遥相关为例,利用CESM(Community Earth System Model)模式,探究不同模式垂直分辨率设置下模式模拟的ENSO对平流层、对流层影响的差异,评估模式垂直分辨率在气候模拟中的重要性。结果表明,提高垂直分辨率可以显著改进模式对ENSO遥相关的模拟能力。以ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)第五代再分析数据集(ERA5)为参照,ENSO对纬向平均温度的影响在北半球中高纬地区冬季呈现出“负正负”的三极子模态。CESM默认的垂直分辨率设置(L66)不能模拟出这一模态,而提高模式垂直分辨率(L103)后则可以较好地模拟出这个模态。对于水平分布而言,L66模拟的ENSO在对流层的信号与再分析资料相比明显偏强,L103则可以显著改善。同时,L103对ENSO影响平流层的模拟效果也比L66有所改善。进一步分析发现,L103模拟的行星波从对流层向平流层的传播更强,更接近再分析资料。提高垂直分辨率可以改善模式对大气波活动以及平流层-对流层动力耦合的模拟,重视模式的研发。
文摘针对评估指标和评估专家权重未知的中型合成营作战能力评估问题,从作战要素的角度建立一种评估指标体系。利用熵权法获得评估指标和专家的权重信息,在传统多准则优化妥协决策(vlse kriterijumska optimizacija i kompromisno resenje,VIKOR)思想的基础上,结合直觉模糊数的计算法则,利用直觉模糊加权平均算子(intuitionistic fuzzy weighted average operator,IFWA)对多个专家的评估结果进行集成,进而对每个合成营的作战能力进行排序,并将其结果与利用TOPSIS方法获得的结果进行比较。结果表明,该模型可靠、准确、稳定。
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(2010CB428604)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41175042 and 41225018)
文摘We have used a fully coupled chemistry-climate model(WACCM)to investigate the relative importance of the direct and indirect effects of 11a solar variations on stratospheric temperature and ozone.Although the model does not contain a quasi-biennial oscillation(QBO)and uses fixed sea surface temperature(SST),it is able to produce a second maximum solar response in tropical lower stratospheric(TLS)temperature and ozone of approximately 0.5 K and 3%,respectively.In the TLS,the solar spectral variations in the chemistry scheme play a more important role than solar spectral variations in the radiation scheme in generating temperature and ozone responses.The chemistry effect of solar variations causes significant changes in the Brewer-Dobson(BD)circulation resulting in ozone anomalies in the TLS.The model simulations also show a negative feedback in the upper stratosphere between the temperature and ozone responses.A wavelet analysis of the modeled ozone and temperature time series reveals that the maximum solar responses in ozone and temperature caused by both chemical and radiative effects occur at different altitudes in the upper stratosphere.The analysis also confirms that both the direct radiative and indirect ozone feedback effects are important in generating a solar response in the upper stratospheric temperatures,although the solar spectral variations in the chemistry scheme give the largest solar cycle power in the upper stratospheric temperature.
