为了精确预测民用机场跑道的剩余使用寿命,利用数据融合技术将两种数据集进行联合分析,采用贝叶斯概率预测方法对机场跑道定期检测数据进行更新。考虑机场道面退化过程的随机性和动态性,建立了一种机场道面性能退化的动态半马尔可夫随...为了精确预测民用机场跑道的剩余使用寿命,利用数据融合技术将两种数据集进行联合分析,采用贝叶斯概率预测方法对机场跑道定期检测数据进行更新。考虑机场道面退化过程的随机性和动态性,建立了一种机场道面性能退化的动态半马尔可夫随机过程模型,利用生存分析对半马尔可夫过程模型的转移概率进行了估计。考虑飞行交通量和道面厚度的双重影响,采用某地方民用机场2007—2017年的道面性能定期检测数据,分析了两种影响因素的作用。利用半马尔可夫过程模型的转移概率对某地方民用机场跑道性能退化过程进行了预测,并采用马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛(Markov Chain Monte Carlo,MCMC)模拟技术,基于贝叶斯统计分析方法,利用不定期检测数据得到的先验信息对半马尔可夫过程模型的转移概率进行了更新,将更新后的模型应用于民用机场跑道性能预测,并将预测结果和未更新的动态半马尔可夫过程模型预测结果进行了对比分析。结果表明,基于MCMC的贝叶斯分析方法能够融合定期和不定期检测数据确定动态半马尔可夫过程模型的参数先验信息,可以有效地更新机场跑道的性能预估模型,提高模型的预测精度。展开更多
[Objective] This study aimed to investigate the temperature regulation effect of surface thermal environment and waters on the temperature, as well as the influencing factors, in Binzhou City, Shandong Province, so as...[Objective] This study aimed to investigate the temperature regulation effect of surface thermal environment and waters on the temperature, as well as the influencing factors, in Binzhou City, Shandong Province, so as to provide scientific basis for layout planning of urban waters. [Method] Based on the Landsat image of 2009 and 2014, the surface temperature was retrieved using mono-window algorithm and the distribution characteristics of surface temperature of different land types were analyzed. By arranging temperature points on the temperature line and water characteristic statistics, the temperature regulation effect of waters, as well as the influencing factors was analyzed. [Result](1) The order of surface temperature of different land types in summer was building land > cultivated land > woodland > water body, while in winter, the order was cultivated land > woodland > building land > water body. In terms of summer-winter average thermal level, the order was building land > cultivated land > woodland > water body.(2) The temperature regulation effect of waters showed a strong nonlinear relationship with the distance.(3) Large-area water bodies had better cooling effect. Under the condition of same area, the temperature regulated area of multiple small-area water bodies was larger than that of single large-area water body.(4) The increase in the proportion of non-building land around the water body increased the range of water cooling.(5) When the area of water bodies was small, the smaller the ratio of perimeter to area was, the larger the influence range of water cooling was. [Conclusion] The temperature regulation effect of waters in Binzhou City showed a strong nonlinear relationship with the distance, and was affected by the size of the water body, the complexity of the boundary and the composition of the surrounding land.展开更多
文摘为了精确预测民用机场跑道的剩余使用寿命,利用数据融合技术将两种数据集进行联合分析,采用贝叶斯概率预测方法对机场跑道定期检测数据进行更新。考虑机场道面退化过程的随机性和动态性,建立了一种机场道面性能退化的动态半马尔可夫随机过程模型,利用生存分析对半马尔可夫过程模型的转移概率进行了估计。考虑飞行交通量和道面厚度的双重影响,采用某地方民用机场2007—2017年的道面性能定期检测数据,分析了两种影响因素的作用。利用半马尔可夫过程模型的转移概率对某地方民用机场跑道性能退化过程进行了预测,并采用马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛(Markov Chain Monte Carlo,MCMC)模拟技术,基于贝叶斯统计分析方法,利用不定期检测数据得到的先验信息对半马尔可夫过程模型的转移概率进行了更新,将更新后的模型应用于民用机场跑道性能预测,并将预测结果和未更新的动态半马尔可夫过程模型预测结果进行了对比分析。结果表明,基于MCMC的贝叶斯分析方法能够融合定期和不定期检测数据确定动态半马尔可夫过程模型的参数先验信息,可以有效地更新机场跑道的性能预估模型,提高模型的预测精度。
基金Sponsored by Major People’s Livelihood and Social Project of Jinan City(201704315)Key Research and Development Project of Department of Science and Technology of Shandong Province(2016GSF117018)Shandong Provincial Water Conservancy Research and Technology Promotion Project(SDSLKY201312)
文摘[Objective] This study aimed to investigate the temperature regulation effect of surface thermal environment and waters on the temperature, as well as the influencing factors, in Binzhou City, Shandong Province, so as to provide scientific basis for layout planning of urban waters. [Method] Based on the Landsat image of 2009 and 2014, the surface temperature was retrieved using mono-window algorithm and the distribution characteristics of surface temperature of different land types were analyzed. By arranging temperature points on the temperature line and water characteristic statistics, the temperature regulation effect of waters, as well as the influencing factors was analyzed. [Result](1) The order of surface temperature of different land types in summer was building land > cultivated land > woodland > water body, while in winter, the order was cultivated land > woodland > building land > water body. In terms of summer-winter average thermal level, the order was building land > cultivated land > woodland > water body.(2) The temperature regulation effect of waters showed a strong nonlinear relationship with the distance.(3) Large-area water bodies had better cooling effect. Under the condition of same area, the temperature regulated area of multiple small-area water bodies was larger than that of single large-area water body.(4) The increase in the proportion of non-building land around the water body increased the range of water cooling.(5) When the area of water bodies was small, the smaller the ratio of perimeter to area was, the larger the influence range of water cooling was. [Conclusion] The temperature regulation effect of waters in Binzhou City showed a strong nonlinear relationship with the distance, and was affected by the size of the water body, the complexity of the boundary and the composition of the surrounding land.
