为了科学设计黄渤海海洋气象边界层观测站网并研究观测网布局对数值天气预报模式的影响,本文采用模式误差、海洋气象要素特征区域资料统计分析和观测系统模拟试验(OSSE)方法,根据边界层雾、层云降水、小风与中等风速天气条件设计布局方...为了科学设计黄渤海海洋气象边界层观测站网并研究观测网布局对数值天气预报模式的影响,本文采用模式误差、海洋气象要素特征区域资料统计分析和观测系统模拟试验(OSSE)方法,根据边界层雾、层云降水、小风与中等风速天气条件设计布局方案,并分析站点观测要素对数值预报模式的要素预报的影响。模拟试验数据使用了每6 h NCEP再分析资料FNL(NCEP Final Operational Global Analysis data)、NCEP每天平均的高分辨率海温资料RTG_SST(Real-Time Global Sea Surface Temperature)和石油平台、浮标站等每小时实况观测资料,评估了黄渤海海洋气象站网布局各个方案的优缺点。评估结果表明,湿度和风的要素预报受实况风向风速条件影响,偏东和偏北风个例湿度要素预报较好。然而,在偏南中等风速个例中,风场预报要素更接近实况。温度场的分析综合结果显示,在海气相互作用影响较大的天气过程中,特征区域布站能明显提高温度要素的预报准确率。最后,综合分析多项模拟试验的结果,给出了改进数值预报准确率的海洋布站建议。展开更多
利用2019~2021年厦门市翔安区气象局观测的雾滴谱资料,分析了闽南沿海雾的微物理参数及滴谱特征,研究了能见度与粒子数浓度、液态水含量、相对湿度等的关系。在此基础上对能见度进行分级参数化拟合与检验评估。结果表明闽南沿海雾的平...利用2019~2021年厦门市翔安区气象局观测的雾滴谱资料,分析了闽南沿海雾的微物理参数及滴谱特征,研究了能见度与粒子数浓度、液态水含量、相对湿度等的关系。在此基础上对能见度进行分级参数化拟合与检验评估。结果表明闽南沿海雾的平均粒子数浓度为47.5 cm^(-3),平均液态水含量为0.0763 g m^(-3)。当能见度下降时,粒子数浓度、液态水含量快速上升,平均直径、有效直径等物理量缓慢上升。能见度低于100 m时,平均粒子数浓度达到115.42 cm^(-3),液态水含量达到0.228 g m^(-3)。粒子数浓度和液态水含量谱线均呈现双峰结构特征分布,粒子数浓度主峰的粒子直径范围为4~6μm,次峰值为22~26μm。液态水含量与粒子数浓度相反,主峰位于24~26μm,次峰为4~6μm,表明雾的粒子数浓度主要受小粒子控制,但液态水含量以20~30μm段的粒子贡献最为显著。与沿海地区相比,闽南沿海雾的平均粒子数浓度小于华南沿海,高于华东沿海;平均液态水含量高于华南沿海,低于华东沿海。与内陆城市区域或县郊相比,同等状态下沿海的粒子数浓度明显更低,但液态水含量更大。采用四种参数化方案对能见度进行了分段以及不分段拟合。评估检验结果表明,采用粒子数浓度和液态水含量的乘积作为因子的分段拟合效果最优,尤其是对于1 km以下的能见度拟合效果更优。展开更多
Meiyu onset (MO) over Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley (YHRV) possesses obvious characteristics of interannual variations. Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets, NOAA OLR and ERSST data, the in-terannual variability of M...Meiyu onset (MO) over Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley (YHRV) possesses obvious characteristics of interannual variations. Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets, NOAA OLR and ERSST data, the in-terannual variability of MO(IVMO) and its previous strong influence signal (PSIS) are investigated. The possible mechanisms that the PSIS affecting IVMO are also discussed. The results show that the pre-vious CP-ENSO (Central Pacific El Nio/Southern Oscillation) event is the PSIS affecting IVMO and it has a better accuracy rate of short-term climate prediction and practicality. The MO is most likely to be late (early) with the warm (cold) phase of CP-ENSO in previous boreal February and spring. CP-ENSO affects MO mainly by means of EAP (East Asian-Pacific) or JP (Japanese-Pacific) teleconnection, in which the tropical western North Pacific anticyclone plays an important role. In the years of CP-ENSO warm phase, the tropical warm wet water vapor transportation to YHRV is late. The anomalous positive sea surface temperature near the equatorial central Pacific results in late northward jump of the western Pacific subtropical high and late establishment of Indian southwest monsoon via air-sea interaction, which leads to late seasonal transition of the atmospheric circulations over East Asia from boreal spring to summer. Late seasonal transition of the atmospheric circulations and late tropical warm wet water vapor transport to YHRV are the primary reasons that cause the late MO. The situations are directly opposite in the years of CP-ENSO cold phase.展开更多
文摘为了科学设计黄渤海海洋气象边界层观测站网并研究观测网布局对数值天气预报模式的影响,本文采用模式误差、海洋气象要素特征区域资料统计分析和观测系统模拟试验(OSSE)方法,根据边界层雾、层云降水、小风与中等风速天气条件设计布局方案,并分析站点观测要素对数值预报模式的要素预报的影响。模拟试验数据使用了每6 h NCEP再分析资料FNL(NCEP Final Operational Global Analysis data)、NCEP每天平均的高分辨率海温资料RTG_SST(Real-Time Global Sea Surface Temperature)和石油平台、浮标站等每小时实况观测资料,评估了黄渤海海洋气象站网布局各个方案的优缺点。评估结果表明,湿度和风的要素预报受实况风向风速条件影响,偏东和偏北风个例湿度要素预报较好。然而,在偏南中等风速个例中,风场预报要素更接近实况。温度场的分析综合结果显示,在海气相互作用影响较大的天气过程中,特征区域布站能明显提高温度要素的预报准确率。最后,综合分析多项模拟试验的结果,给出了改进数值预报准确率的海洋布站建议。
文摘利用2019~2021年厦门市翔安区气象局观测的雾滴谱资料,分析了闽南沿海雾的微物理参数及滴谱特征,研究了能见度与粒子数浓度、液态水含量、相对湿度等的关系。在此基础上对能见度进行分级参数化拟合与检验评估。结果表明闽南沿海雾的平均粒子数浓度为47.5 cm^(-3),平均液态水含量为0.0763 g m^(-3)。当能见度下降时,粒子数浓度、液态水含量快速上升,平均直径、有效直径等物理量缓慢上升。能见度低于100 m时,平均粒子数浓度达到115.42 cm^(-3),液态水含量达到0.228 g m^(-3)。粒子数浓度和液态水含量谱线均呈现双峰结构特征分布,粒子数浓度主峰的粒子直径范围为4~6μm,次峰值为22~26μm。液态水含量与粒子数浓度相反,主峰位于24~26μm,次峰为4~6μm,表明雾的粒子数浓度主要受小粒子控制,但液态水含量以20~30μm段的粒子贡献最为显著。与沿海地区相比,闽南沿海雾的平均粒子数浓度小于华南沿海,高于华东沿海;平均液态水含量高于华南沿海,低于华东沿海。与内陆城市区域或县郊相比,同等状态下沿海的粒子数浓度明显更低,但液态水含量更大。采用四种参数化方案对能见度进行了分段以及不分段拟合。评估检验结果表明,采用粒子数浓度和液态水含量的乘积作为因子的分段拟合效果最优,尤其是对于1 km以下的能见度拟合效果更优。
基金Supported jointly by the China Meteorological Administration Project (Grant No. GYHY200706005)the Applied Basic and Front Technology Research Project for Tianjin (Grant No. 08JCYBJC10300)the Technological Innovation Foundation Program of Beijing Regional Meteorological Center (Grant No. BRMCCJ200705)
文摘Meiyu onset (MO) over Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley (YHRV) possesses obvious characteristics of interannual variations. Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets, NOAA OLR and ERSST data, the in-terannual variability of MO(IVMO) and its previous strong influence signal (PSIS) are investigated. The possible mechanisms that the PSIS affecting IVMO are also discussed. The results show that the pre-vious CP-ENSO (Central Pacific El Nio/Southern Oscillation) event is the PSIS affecting IVMO and it has a better accuracy rate of short-term climate prediction and practicality. The MO is most likely to be late (early) with the warm (cold) phase of CP-ENSO in previous boreal February and spring. CP-ENSO affects MO mainly by means of EAP (East Asian-Pacific) or JP (Japanese-Pacific) teleconnection, in which the tropical western North Pacific anticyclone plays an important role. In the years of CP-ENSO warm phase, the tropical warm wet water vapor transportation to YHRV is late. The anomalous positive sea surface temperature near the equatorial central Pacific results in late northward jump of the western Pacific subtropical high and late establishment of Indian southwest monsoon via air-sea interaction, which leads to late seasonal transition of the atmospheric circulations over East Asia from boreal spring to summer. Late seasonal transition of the atmospheric circulations and late tropical warm wet water vapor transport to YHRV are the primary reasons that cause the late MO. The situations are directly opposite in the years of CP-ENSO cold phase.
