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CMIP5模式对江淮流域极端气候指数的模拟评估及预估
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作者 吴晶璐 汤剑平 +4 位作者 吴建秋 黄文彦 雷正翠 姚丽娜 蒋骏 《气象与环境科学》 2024年第3期93-103,共11页
基于1976-2005年淮河流域260个区域站点观测资料及CMIP5中19个全球气候模式模拟的16个极端气候指数格点资料,利用空间相关系数、均方根误差方法对CMIP5各模式和多模式集合模拟的极端气候指数分别进行评估,并研究在RCP4.5情境下CMIP5优... 基于1976-2005年淮河流域260个区域站点观测资料及CMIP5中19个全球气候模式模拟的16个极端气候指数格点资料,利用空间相关系数、均方根误差方法对CMIP5各模式和多模式集合模拟的极端气候指数分别进行评估,并研究在RCP4.5情境下CMIP5优选模式的多模式集合预估2016-2045年和2071-2100年的江淮流域极端气候指数变化情况,结果表明:(1)CMIP5中有11个模式与站点观测的空间相关系数较高。其中,CCSM4、CMCC-CM模拟TXx的结果最好,ACCESS1-0、MPI-ESM-LR、MPI-ESM-MR和GFDL-ESM2M对于TNn具有较好的模拟能力,ACCESS1-0、CMCC-CM对Rx1day具有良好的模拟能力。(2)CMIP5多模式集合模拟结果能很好地再现1976-2005年R95p、R99p、CDD的空间分布特点,但是对GSL、CSDI及极端气候强度指数模拟的结果与站点资料偏差较大。(3)在RCP4.5情境下,CMIP5多模式集合模拟的江淮流域极端气候指数中,在2016-2045年的TXx普遍增加了1.0℃左右,TNn在安徽省北部和河南省东部增加了约1.8℃,Rx1day和Rx5day的高增长区集中在河南省北部;2071-2100年,TXx和TNn增长幅度大于2.1℃,Rx1day和Rx5day各站点增长幅度的差异减弱。 展开更多
关键词 极端气候指数 CMIP5 江淮流域
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2018年常州一次罕见持续性雾-霾天气分析 被引量:10
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作者 雷正翠 郑媛媛 +5 位作者 刘银峰 孙康远 刘端阳 何涛 吴晶璐 周文君 《气象》 CSCD 北大核心 2019年第8期1123-1134,共12页
利用常规气象观测资料、探空资料、污染物浓度及AQI资料、NCEP再分析资料等,对2018年11月24日至12月3日夜间常州持续11 d的强浓雾和严重霾天气过程进行了分析。结果表明:(1)此次雾-霾过程持续时间长、范围广、强度大、污染重。(2)中纬... 利用常规气象观测资料、探空资料、污染物浓度及AQI资料、NCEP再分析资料等,对2018年11月24日至12月3日夜间常州持续11 d的强浓雾和严重霾天气过程进行了分析。结果表明:(1)此次雾-霾过程持续时间长、范围广、强度大、污染重。(2)中纬度地区高层持续纬向环流控制、中低层暖脊稳定存在,地面持续受均压场或弱倒槽顶部、弱冷锋前部影响,是这次持续性雾-霾过程的重要天气条件。(3)边界层内弱辐散、负涡度及弱的下沉气流是此次雾-霾天气得以长时间维持、发展的动力因子。近地层长时间水汽饱和且维持小风速利于雾-霾的长时间维持。(4)近地面高强度的贴地逆温长时间维持和持续较低的混合层高度是此次雾-霾形成、发展和长时间维持的重要热力条件。雾比霾的平均混合层高度明显偏低且霾等级越高混合层高度越低,混合层高度的变化先于能见度变化,对雾-霾临近预警有较好的指导作用。(5)弱冷空气渗透、风速适当增加、混合层高度的先期快速下降、负净辐射曝辐量绝对值的明显增大是雾爆发性增强的主要原因。 展开更多
关键词 持续雾-霾 气象要素 污染物 逆温层 混合层高度 爆发性增强
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乌兹别克斯坦阿姆河流域水体中多环芳烃的分布、来源及风险评估 被引量:6
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作者 金苗 吴敬禄 +1 位作者 占水娥 Shakhimardan Shaniyazov 《湖泊科学》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2022年第3期855-867,I0004,共14页
为研究乌兹别克斯坦境内阿姆河地区水体中多环芳烃(PAHs)污染特征、来源并进行风险评估,采用高效液相色谱二极管阵列检测器串联荧光检测器法,对研究区域50个采样点中16种优先控制的多环芳烃进行了检测分析.结果表明,阿姆河地区水体中多... 为研究乌兹别克斯坦境内阿姆河地区水体中多环芳烃(PAHs)污染特征、来源并进行风险评估,采用高效液相色谱二极管阵列检测器串联荧光检测器法,对研究区域50个采样点中16种优先控制的多环芳烃进行了检测分析.结果表明,阿姆河地区水体中多环芳烃总浓度范围为3.19~779 ng/L,平均值为98.4 ng/L,中位值为40.1 ng/L,单体浓度范围为0~333 ng/L,检出浓度最高的单体为苊烯,5种单体芴、蒽、荧蒽、芘和?的检出率为100%,单体苯并[b]荧蒽的检出总量最高,水样中总浓度为786 ng/L,平均值为15.7 ng/L,中值为2.79 ng/L.不同水体含中低环多环芳烃(2~4环)与高环多环芳烃(5~6环)总浓度相近,但不同采样点间浓度差异较大.浓度较高的采样点主要集中在阿姆河三角洲的城市、农业灌溉区及近咸海区域.与世界不同研究区域相比,阿姆河流域多环芳烃浓度处于中等水平.采用相对丰度法、同分异构体比值法及正定矩阵分解法相结合进行源解析,表明研究区域水体中多环芳烃多为混合来源,其中阿姆河下游河段水体多环芳烃主要来源于生物质燃烧,而阿姆河三角洲区域主要来源于生物质燃烧、石油、天燃气燃烧及汽车尾气排放.生态风险评估结果显示,研究区水体单体多环芳烃中萘、苊、菲和蒽的生态风险较低,其余单体处于中等风险等级,其中苯并[b]荧蒽的污染程度较为严重;总体上阿姆河流域ΣPAHs风险等级相对较低,但仍有12和8个点位分别处于中等风险2和高风险等级,且主要集中在阿姆河三角洲地区,需采取相应措施加以控制. 展开更多
关键词 阿姆河流域 水体 多环芳烃 风险评估
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近30多年江淮流域极端气温指数的时空变化分析:站点观测和再分析的对比 被引量:8
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作者 吴晶璐 朱红芳 +2 位作者 宗培书 惠品宏 汤剑平 《气象科学》 北大核心 2018年第4期464-476,共13页
利用1979—2011年江淮流域的区域站点、NCEP/DOE和ERA-Interim再分析资料中的逐日最高、最低气温资料集,对比分析了近33 a江淮流域极端气温指数的时空变化特征,对再分析资料的再现能力进行检验和评估。结果表明:(1)近33 a来大部分极端... 利用1979—2011年江淮流域的区域站点、NCEP/DOE和ERA-Interim再分析资料中的逐日最高、最低气温资料集,对比分析了近33 a江淮流域极端气温指数的时空变化特征,对再分析资料的再现能力进行检验和评估。结果表明:(1)近33 a来大部分极端气温指数及其趋势系数的空间分布都表现出南北向梯度分布特征,而极端最高、最低气温的极值区分布在长江三角洲地区;(2)夏日指数、作物生产指数、极端最高、极端最低、暖期长度指数和高百分位指数在年际变化中均有上升趋势,而且多次出现异常低值和异常高值;近10多年来,极端气温频率指数和百分位指数的年际变化趋势有所减缓;(3)月最高气温在近30 a中不断被突破,最低气温不断上升,而且高温天气日数也在不断增加,但低温日数逐渐减少;(4)再分析资料能较合理地再现大部分极端指数的时空变化和线性趋势特征,ERA-Interim比NCEP/DOE具有更好的再现能力。 展开更多
关键词 极端气温指数 变化特征 再分析资料
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江淮流域极端降水时空变化特征:站点观测和再分析的对比 被引量:14
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作者 吴晶璐 惠品宏 +1 位作者 刘建勇 汤剑平 《大气科学学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2019年第2期207-220,共14页
利用淮河流域1979—2011年260个站点观测、ERA-Interim和NCEP/DOE再分析资料的日降水量数据,选用8个极端降水指数,从空间分布、发展趋势、时间变化等方面对比分析了我国江淮流域极端降水的变化规律,研究了再分析数据的适用性,结果表明:1... 利用淮河流域1979—2011年260个站点观测、ERA-Interim和NCEP/DOE再分析资料的日降水量数据,选用8个极端降水指数,从空间分布、发展趋势、时间变化等方面对比分析了我国江淮流域极端降水的变化规律,研究了再分析数据的适用性,结果表明:1)持续湿润指数(CWD)、强降水日数(R10mm,R20mm)以及百分位指数(R95p,R99p)具有一致的北少南多的分布特征,而持续干燥指数(CDD)为北多南少,且强度指数(Rx1day,Rx5day)和百分位指数在浙江沿海均有极大值存在。2)大部分地区的强降水日数呈减少趋势,仅在江淮周边地区有弱上升趋势。3)区域平均的降水强度指数具有上升的趋势变化,逐月变化具有先增长后减少的结构特征,5—6月的增长量最大,峰值出现在7月,在夏末、冬季有较明显的随年代增加的趋势,在秋季则随年代减少。4)再分析资料ERA-Interim和NCEP/DOE对不同指数的再现能力有所不同,ERA-Interim对强降水日数(R10mm)、CDD、百分位指数的空间分布以及CDD的变化趋势再现能力较好,与强度指数和百分位指数年际变化的相关性较高,但对CWD变化趋势分布特点的再现能力较弱;NCEP/DOE更善于再现较强降水日数(R20mm)的空间分布以及强度指数和百分位指数的线性变化趋势。5)两种再分析资料能合理地再现强降水日数(R10mm,R20mm)和CDD年际变化特征和强度指数的季节变化特征。 展开更多
关键词 极端降水指数 江淮流域 再分析资料
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Environmental change inferred from Rb and Sr of lacustrine sediments in Huangqihai Lake,Inner Mongolia 被引量:11
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作者 CHEN Lei SHEN Hongyuan +4 位作者 JIA Yulian wu jinglu LI Xusheng WEI Ling WANG Pengling 《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 SCIE CSCD 2008年第3期373-384,共12页
Based on the geochemical elements Rb and Sr in sediments with three different grain size fractions from profile H3 on the northern lacustrine bottomland 13 m above the Huangqihai Lake surface in 1986,the paper investi... Based on the geochemical elements Rb and Sr in sediments with three different grain size fractions from profile H3 on the northern lacustrine bottomland 13 m above the Huangqihai Lake surface in 1986,the paper investigates the record of palaeolake stand state, sedimentary environmental evolution,and winter monsoon change.First,these samples are separated into three different grain size fractions,i.e.,total sediments,77-20μm and〈20μm. Second,the chemical elements-Rb and Sr-of the grain size separation were tested and analyzed systematically in this paper.Then the elements compositions of these samples are measured using VP-320 mode fluorescence spectrum instrument,respectively.The magnetic susceptibility of these samples is measured using Kappabridge KLY-3 mode instrument made in Czech AGICO Company.The results showed the elements and the ratios varied regularly with the grain size.But the ratio of Rb/Sr in the sediments〈20μm correlates positively with the magnetic susceptibility of these samples.Therefore,the ratio of Rb/Sr in the fraction〈20 μm from the lake sediments reflected the strengthening of the weathering in the deposition sites.It is a good indicator of the summer monsoon-induced weathering and pedogenesis fluctuations and can be used to reconstruct the conditions of the paleoclimate and paleoenvironment. 展开更多
关键词 Inner Mongolia Huangqihai Lake HOLOCENE different grain size fractions lake sediment Rb/Sr ratio climatic change
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Organochlorine pesticides and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in water and sediment of the Bosten Lake,Northwest China 被引量:13
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作者 SHEN Beibei wu jinglu ZHAO Zhonghua 《Journal of Arid Land》 SCIE CSCD 2017年第2期287-298,共12页
We evaluated organic pollution in Bosten Lake, Xinjiang, China, by measuring the concentrations and distributions of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Water and sediment... We evaluated organic pollution in Bosten Lake, Xinjiang, China, by measuring the concentrations and distributions of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Water and sediment samples were collected from 19 sites 031-1319) in the lake for analysis. Our analytical results show that the concentrations of total OCPs in water ranges from 30.3 to 91.6 ng/L and the concentrations of PAHs ranges from undetectable (ND) to 368.7 ng/L. The concentrations of total OCPs in surface (i.e., lake bottom) sediment ranges from 6.9 to 16.7 ng/g and the concentrations of PAHs ranges from 25.2 to 491.0 ng/g. Hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs) and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs) account for large proportions of the OCPs. Low α- to γ-HCH ratios in both water and sediment samples indicate possible contributions from both industrial products and lindane. DDTs in water are probably from historical input, whereas DDTs in sediments are from both historical and recent inputs. Moreover, DDT products in both water and sediments were from multiple sources in the northwestern part of the lake(B11, B12, B13, and B14). Fugacity ratios for DDT isomers (p,p'-DDE and p,p'-DDT) at these sites were generally higher than equilibrium values. These results suggest that the input from the Kaidu River and diffusion of DDTs from the sediment to the water are responsible for DDT pollution in the water. Lower-molecular-weight PAHs, which originate primarily from wood and coal combustion and petroleum sources, represent the major fraction of the PAHs in both water and sediment samples. Our findings indicate that OCPs and PAHs in Bosten Lake can be attributed primarily to human activities. A risk assessment of OCPs and PAHs in water and sediment from Bosten Lake, however, suggests that concentrations are not yet high enough to cause adverse biological effects on the aquatic ecosystem. 展开更多
关键词 organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) Bosten Lake surface water and sediment spatial distribution
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Extreme Flood Events over the Past 300 Years Inferred from Lake Sedimentary Grain Sizes in the Altay Mountains,Northwestern China 被引量:2
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作者 ZHOU Jianchao wu jinglu ZENG Haiao 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2018年第5期773-783,共11页
Understanding the temporal variations of extreme floods that occur in response to climate change is essential to anticipate the trends in flood magnitude and frequency in the context of global warming. However, long-t... Understanding the temporal variations of extreme floods that occur in response to climate change is essential to anticipate the trends in flood magnitude and frequency in the context of global warming. However, long-term records of paleofloods in arid regions are scarce, thus preventing a thorough understanding of such events. In this study, a reconstruction of paleofloods over the past 300 years was conducted through an analysis of grain sizes from the sediments of Kanas Lake in the Altay Mountains of northwestern China. Results showed that grain parameters and frequency distributions can be used to infer possible abrupt environmental events within the lake sedimentary sequence, and two extreme flood events corresponding to ca. 1736–1765 AD and ca. 1890 AD were further identified based on canonical discriminant analysis(CDA) and coarse percentile versus median grain size(C-M) pattern analysis, both of which occurred during warmer and wetter climate conditions by referring to tree-ring records. These two flood events are also evidenced by lake sedimentary records in the Altay and Tianshan mountains. Furthermore, through a comparison with other records, the flood event from ca. 1736–1765 AD in the study region seems to have occurred in both the arid central Asia and the Alps in Europe, and thus may have been associated with changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) index. 展开更多
关键词 flood events grain size Kanas Lake Altay Mountains North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)
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China's lakes at present:Number,area and spatial distribution 被引量:94
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作者 MA RongHua YANG GuiShan +8 位作者 DUAN HongTao JIANG JiaHu WANG SuMin FENG XueZhi LI AiNong KONG FanXiang XUE Bin wu jinglu LI ShiJie 《Science China Earth Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS 2011年第2期283-289,共7页
Based on 11004 satellite images from CBERS CCD and Landsat TM/ETM,changes in the spatial characteristics of all lakes in China were determined following pre-established interpretation rules.This dataset was supported ... Based on 11004 satellite images from CBERS CCD and Landsat TM/ETM,changes in the spatial characteristics of all lakes in China were determined following pre-established interpretation rules.This dataset was supported by 6843 digital raster images(1:100000 and 1:50000),a countrywide digital vector dataset(1:250000),and historical literature.Comparative data were corrected for seasonal variations using precipitation data.There are presently 2693 natural lakes in China with an area greater than 1.0 km2,excluding reservoirs.These lakes are distributed in 28 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities and have a total area of 81414.6 km2,accounting for-0.9% of China's total land area.In the past 30 years,the number of newly formed and newly discovered lakes with an area greater than 1.0 km2 is 60 and 131,respectively.Conversely,243 lakes have disappeared in this time period. 展开更多
关键词 China lake number lake area spatial distribution
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Baseline determination,pollution source and ecological risk of heavy metals in surface sediments of the Amu Darya Basin,Central Asia
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作者 ZHAN Shuie wu jinglu +1 位作者 JIN Miao ZHANG Hongliang 《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 SCIE CSCD 2022年第11期2349-2364,共16页
Central Asia(CA)is one of the most fragile regions worldwide owing to arid climate and accumulated human activities,and is a global hotspot due to gradually deteriorating ecological environment.The Amu Darya Basin(ADB... Central Asia(CA)is one of the most fragile regions worldwide owing to arid climate and accumulated human activities,and is a global hotspot due to gradually deteriorating ecological environment.The Amu Darya Basin(ADB),as the most economically and demographically important region in CA,is of particular concern.To determine the concentration,source and pollution status of heavy metals(HMs)in surface sediments of the ADB,154samples were collected and analyzed for metals across the basin.Correlation and cluster analysis,and positive matrix factorization model were implemented to understand metals’association and apportion their possible sources.Cumulative frequency distribution and normalization methods were used to determine the geochemical baseline values(GBVs).Then,various pollution indices and ecological risk index were employed to characterize and evaluate the pollution levels and associated risks based on the GBVs.Results indicated that the mean concentrations of HMs showed the following descending order in the surface sediments of ADB:Zn>Cr>Ni>Cu>Pb>Co>Cd.The spatial distribution maps showed that Cr,Ni,and Cu had relatively high enrichment in the irrigated agricultural area;high abundances of Zn,Pb,and Cd were mainly found in the urban areas.Four source factors were identified for these metals,namely natural sources,industrial discharge,agricultural activities,and mixed source of traffic and mining activities,accounting for 33.5%,11.4%,34.2%,and 20.9%of the total contribution,respectively.The GBVs of Cd,Zn,Pb,Cu,Ni,Cr,and Co in the ADB were 0.27,58.9,14.6,20.3,25.8,53.4,and 9.80 mg/kg,respectively,which were similar to the regional background values obtained from lake sediments in the bottom.In general,the assessment results revealed that surface sediments of the ADB were moderately polluted and low ecological risk by HMs. 展开更多
关键词 heavy metal spatial distribution source identification geochemical baseline value risk assessment Amu Darya Basin
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