Origins of intraseasonal rainfall variations over the southern South China Sea in boreal winter

本文主要探讨冬季南海南部季节内降水变化的来源,数据主要来自于TRMM和NCEP-DOE资料,方法主要有谱分析和回归分析。研究发现南海南部的降水变化在10–20天和30–60天时间尺度上有不同的来源。10–20天时间尺度上,东亚冬季风超前于南海南部降水异常2天。而在30–60天时间尺度上,两者几乎同时出现。此外,热带东南印度洋上的降水异常超前于南海南部一周左右,这表明热带印度洋上的对流引起的环流异常可能对南海南部30–60天时间尺度上降水异常有重要的作用,但对10–20天时间尺度上降水异常的作用并不明显。

Persistence of Snow Cover Anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau and the Implications for Forecasting Summer Precipitation over the Meiyu-Baiu Region

The present reported study investigated the persistence of snow anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) from the preceding seasons to summer and the relationship between the previous snow cover anomaly and summer precipitation over East Asia. The results showed that, relative to other snow indices, such as the station observational snow depth(SOSD) index and the snow water equivalent(SWE) index, the snow cover area proportion(SCAP) index calculated from the SWE and the percentage of visible snow of the Equal-Area Scalable Earth Grids(EASE-grids) dataset has a higher persistence in interannual anomalies, particularly from May to summer. As such, the May SCAP index is significantly related to summer precipitation over the Meiyu-Baiu region. The persistence of the SCAP index can partly explain the season-delayed effect of snow cover over the TP on summer rainfall over the Meiyu-Baiu region besides the contribution of the soil moisture bridge. The preceding SST anomaly in the tropical Indian Ocean and ENSO can persist through the summer and affect the summer precipitation over the Meiyu-Baiu region. However, the May SCAP index is mostly independent of the simultaneous SSTs in the tropical Indian Ocean and the preceding ENSO and may affect the summer precipitation over the Meiyu-Baiu region independent of the effects of the SST anomalies. Therefore, the May SCAP over the TP could be regarded as an important supplementary factor in the forecasting of summer precipitation over the Meiyu-Baiu region.

Variability of Surface Sensible Heat Flux over Northwest China

The present study documents the variability of surface sensible heat flux over Northwest China using station observations for the period 1961 2000.It is found that the afternoon and nighttime sensible heat flux variations are remarkably different.The variability of the instant flux in the afternoon is much larger than in the nighttime.The afternoon and nighttime flux anomalies tend to be opposite.The diurnal and seasonal dependence of sensible heat flux variations is closely related to the diurnal cycle of mean land-air temperature difference.The relationship of sensible heat flux with land-air temperature difference based on the instant value differs from that based on the daily mean.The present study indicates the importance for the models to properly simulate mean land-air temperature difference and its diurnal and seasonal variations in order to capture surface sensible heat flux variability over Northwest China and predicts its plausible impacts on climate.

Contribution of intraseasonal oscillation to long-duration summer precipitation events over southern China

本文重点分析了中国南方地区长持续性(14天以上)夏季降水事件的环流异常背景和相应的前期信号。结果显示,长持续性降水事件主要由中国南方及其相邻的南海地区低层(850-h Pa)气旋性环流异常导致。该气旋性环流异常可以追溯到30天以前新几内亚以北的热带地区,随后它自热带地区逐渐向北略偏西方向移动,最终影响了中国南方地区长持续性降水事件。其北移特征在30–60天滤波后的风场中也有清楚的体现,暗示了30–60天季节内振荡自热带西太平洋地区向北的传播可能对中国南方地区长持续性夏季降水事件具有重要贡献。

Perspectives on the non-stationarity of the relationship between Indian and East Asian summer rainfall variations

观测和气候模式中印度和东亚夏季降水变化的关系是不稳定的。本文讨论外部强迫和大气内部过程在上述关系变化中的作用。虽然厄尔尼诺-南方涛动在印度和东亚夏季降水变化中有重要作用,但它并不能解释印度-东亚降水关系的长期变化。蒙特卡罗试验说明随机过程的作用不能完全排除。气候模式结果分析表明印度-东亚夏季降水的关系在不同模式之间和同一模式不同模拟之间都有明显变化。这指出了大气内部过程对印度-东亚夏季降水关系变化的影响。此观点为100年气候平均海温强迫的大气环流模式试验结果所支持。