This paper discusses theories and methods of climate change risk studies for the research expansion in China. Climate change risks consist of three basic components including sensitivity, exposure, and possibility. Un...This paper discusses theories and methods of climate change risk studies for the research expansion in China. Climate change risks consist of three basic components including sensitivity, exposure, and possibility. Uncertainty, future events, damages, and relativity are the major features of climate change risk. Climate change risk research includes two key steps: risk assessment and risk management, the former is the process, and the latter is the ultimate goal which is the basis for actions to address climate change. We present the main framework and methods for climate change risk research. A case study on China's floods risk is taken as an example of climate change risk study. Finally, we point out main aspects of climate change risk research, including ensemble-based probabilistic projection, quantitative risk assessment, risk zoning and mapping, and risk management.展开更多
Guizhou Karst Plateau is located at the center of the karst region in Asia, where landslides are a typical disaster. Affected by the local karst environment, the landslides in this region have their own characteristic...Guizhou Karst Plateau is located at the center of the karst region in Asia, where landslides are a typical disaster. Affected by the local karst environment, the landslides in this region have their own characteristics. In this study, 3975 landslide records from inventories of the Guizhou karst plateau are studied. The geographical detector method is used to detect the dominant casual factor and predominant multi-factor combinations for the local landslides. The results show that landslides are prone to areas on slopes between 10° and 35°, of clay rock, in close proximity to gullies, and especially in areas of moderate vegetation, dryland, and mild rocky desertification. Continuous precipitation over 10 days has a great effect on landslide occurrence. Compared with the individual factors, the impact of two-factor interaction has greater explanatory power for landslide volume. The volume of earthquake-induced landslides is predominantly controlled by the interactions of faults and slopes, while that of humaninduced landslides is affected by the interactions of land cover and hydrological conditions. For rainfallinduced landslides, the dominant interactions vary in different regions. In the central karst basin, the interactions between faults and precipitation can explain over 90% of the variations in landslide volumes. In the southern hilly karst region, the interactions between lithology and slope can explain over 71% of the variations in landslide volume and those between fault and land-use can explain 50% of the variations of the landslide volumes in the northeastern mountainous karst region.展开更多
Relative weakness in sensitivity and contribution integration,especially lack of specific indicators at spatial and temporal scales,may hinder the formation of systematic knowledge for climate change impact on vegetat...Relative weakness in sensitivity and contribution integration,especially lack of specific indicators at spatial and temporal scales,may hinder the formation of systematic knowledge for climate change impact on vegetation activity.Considering the interannual variability and periods difference,we investigated the ecosystem sensitivity to hydrothermal conditions and the contribution of individual climatic factors to vegetation activity on spatiotemporal scales during the period of 1980s—2013 in China.We ran simulations of the Common Land Model(CoLM)to obtain the photosynthetic rate,and used the satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI),to which we applied a temporal sensitivity analysis,the slope change ratio of accumulative quantity(SCRAQ),and geographical detectors.We show that the discrepancy between warming and precipitation variation contributed to vegetation activity was more notable than the ecosystem sensitivity to hydrothermal conditions,regardless of which temporal and spatial scale was considered.The sensitivity of vegetation activity to hydrothermal variation in most parts of northeastern and western China was higher than elsewhere,and the contribution of warming to vegetation dynamics was relatively high in the Inner Mongolian Plateau and Tibetan Plateau(>60%),where the contribution of warming to the vegetation distribution was also greater than elsewhere in China.Conversely,the contribution of precipitation variation to vegetation dynamics was comparatively greater in northwestern China and subtropical and tropical regions(>55%).The spatiotemporal contribution of precipitation variation to vegetation activity differed between regions,especially on the Tibetan Plateau and in subtropical and tropical regions.Moreover,both the temporal and spatial sensitivities to climate change were weak in the subtropical and tropical regions,where the contribution of climatic factors to vegetation distribution was also small.Overall,temperature sensitivity and its contribution to vegetation activity were positively associated in most regions.However,the regions where precipitation contributed substantially to vegetation activity were not necessarily also highly sensitive to changes in precipitation within the range of variation explored.展开更多
基金supported by National Science and Technology Support Program (No. 2012BAC19B10)Knowledge Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCXZ-YW-QO3-01)
文摘This paper discusses theories and methods of climate change risk studies for the research expansion in China. Climate change risks consist of three basic components including sensitivity, exposure, and possibility. Uncertainty, future events, damages, and relativity are the major features of climate change risk. Climate change risk research includes two key steps: risk assessment and risk management, the former is the process, and the latter is the ultimate goal which is the basis for actions to address climate change. We present the main framework and methods for climate change risk research. A case study on China's floods risk is taken as an example of climate change risk study. Finally, we point out main aspects of climate change risk research, including ensemble-based probabilistic projection, quantitative risk assessment, risk zoning and mapping, and risk management.
基金supported by high-level innovative talents training in Guizhou province(2016 No.4026)the Chinese National Natural Science Fund(Grant Nos.41671101,41671098)the Pioneer Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA19040304)
文摘Guizhou Karst Plateau is located at the center of the karst region in Asia, where landslides are a typical disaster. Affected by the local karst environment, the landslides in this region have their own characteristics. In this study, 3975 landslide records from inventories of the Guizhou karst plateau are studied. The geographical detector method is used to detect the dominant casual factor and predominant multi-factor combinations for the local landslides. The results show that landslides are prone to areas on slopes between 10° and 35°, of clay rock, in close proximity to gullies, and especially in areas of moderate vegetation, dryland, and mild rocky desertification. Continuous precipitation over 10 days has a great effect on landslide occurrence. Compared with the individual factors, the impact of two-factor interaction has greater explanatory power for landslide volume. The volume of earthquake-induced landslides is predominantly controlled by the interactions of faults and slopes, while that of humaninduced landslides is affected by the interactions of land cover and hydrological conditions. For rainfallinduced landslides, the dominant interactions vary in different regions. In the central karst basin, the interactions between faults and precipitation can explain over 90% of the variations in landslide volumes. In the southern hilly karst region, the interactions between lithology and slope can explain over 71% of the variations in landslide volume and those between fault and land-use can explain 50% of the variations of the landslide volumes in the northeastern mountainous karst region.
基金supported by National Key Technologies Research and Development Program of China(2018YFC1509002)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41901125,42071288)+1 种基金the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFC1508801,2018YFC1508900)the Climate Change Project of the China Meteorological Administration(CCSF202042).
文摘Relative weakness in sensitivity and contribution integration,especially lack of specific indicators at spatial and temporal scales,may hinder the formation of systematic knowledge for climate change impact on vegetation activity.Considering the interannual variability and periods difference,we investigated the ecosystem sensitivity to hydrothermal conditions and the contribution of individual climatic factors to vegetation activity on spatiotemporal scales during the period of 1980s—2013 in China.We ran simulations of the Common Land Model(CoLM)to obtain the photosynthetic rate,and used the satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI),to which we applied a temporal sensitivity analysis,the slope change ratio of accumulative quantity(SCRAQ),and geographical detectors.We show that the discrepancy between warming and precipitation variation contributed to vegetation activity was more notable than the ecosystem sensitivity to hydrothermal conditions,regardless of which temporal and spatial scale was considered.The sensitivity of vegetation activity to hydrothermal variation in most parts of northeastern and western China was higher than elsewhere,and the contribution of warming to vegetation dynamics was relatively high in the Inner Mongolian Plateau and Tibetan Plateau(>60%),where the contribution of warming to the vegetation distribution was also greater than elsewhere in China.Conversely,the contribution of precipitation variation to vegetation dynamics was comparatively greater in northwestern China and subtropical and tropical regions(>55%).The spatiotemporal contribution of precipitation variation to vegetation activity differed between regions,especially on the Tibetan Plateau and in subtropical and tropical regions.Moreover,both the temporal and spatial sensitivities to climate change were weak in the subtropical and tropical regions,where the contribution of climatic factors to vegetation distribution was also small.Overall,temperature sensitivity and its contribution to vegetation activity were positively associated in most regions.However,the regions where precipitation contributed substantially to vegetation activity were not necessarily also highly sensitive to changes in precipitation within the range of variation explored.
