Weight change and all-cause and cause-specific mortality:A 25-year follow-up study

Background:Whether the dynamic weight change is an independent risk factor for mortality remains controversial.This study aimed to examine the association between weight change and risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality based on the Linxian Nutrition Intervention Trial(NIT)cohort.Methods:Body weight of 21,028 healthy residents of Linxian,Henan province,aged 40-69 years was measured two times from 1986 to 1991.Outcome events were prospectively collected up to 2016.Weight maintenance group(weight change<2 kg)or stable normal weight group was treated as the reference.Cox proportional hazard model was performed to calculate hazard ratios(HRs)and 95%confidence intervals(95%CIs)to estimate the risk of mortality.Results:A total of 21,028 subjects were included in the final analysis.Compared with the weight maintenance group,subjects with weight loss≥2 kg had an increased risk of death from all-cause(HR_(All-cause)=1.14,95%CI:1.09-1.19,P<0.001),cancer(HR_(Cancer)=1.12,95%CI:1.03-1.21,P=0.009),and heart disease(HR_(Heart diseases)=1.21,95%CI:1.11-1.31,P<0.001),whereas subjects with weight gain≥5 kg had 11%(HR_(Cancer)=0.89,95%CI:0.79-0.99,P=0.033)lower risk of cancer mortality and 23%higher risk of stroke mortality(HR_(Stroke)=1.23,95%CI:1.12-1.34,P<0.001).For the change of weight status,both going from overweight to normal weight and becoming underweight within 5 years could increase the risk of total death(HR_(Overweight to normal)=1.18,95%CI:1.09-1.27;HR_(Becoming underweight)=1.35,95%CI:1.25-1.46)and cancer death(HR_(Overweight to normal)=1.20,95%CI:1.04-1.39;HR_(Becoming underweight)=1.44,95%CI:1.24-1.67),while stable overweight could increase the risk of total death(HR_(Stable overweight)=1.11,95%CI:1.05-1.17)and death from stroke(HR_(Stable overweight)=1.44,95%CI:1.33-1.56).Interaction effects were observed between age and weight change on cancer mortality,as well as between baseline BMI and weight change on all-cause,heart disease,and stroke mortality(all P_(interaction)<0.01).Conclusions:Weight loss was associated with an increased risk of all-cause,cancer,and heart disease mortality,whereas excessive weight gain and stable overweight were associated with a higher risk of stroke mortality.Efforts of weight management should be taken to improve health status.Trial registration:https://classic.clinicaltrials.gov/,NCT00342654.

The Enhancement of the East Asian Summer Monsoon over Northeast Asia over the Most Recent Two Decades

The East Asian summer monsoon in Northeast Asia(NEA)has experienced an increase in summer rainfall and a delayed end to the rainy season after 2000,suggesting a trend of enhancement.Based on the data analyses spanning 1979-2022,our results show that the increased rainfall amounts are associated with a more pronounced Mongolian cyclone(MC)in July−August,a manifestation of a portion of the Eurasian barotropic Rossby wave train.Sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the North Atlantic(NA)regulate this wave train,with SST increases leading to its amplification.Somewhat independently,a delayed end to the rainy season in September is related to an enhanced anticyclone over the Kuril Islands(ACKI)in the Russian Far East.This anticyclone originates in the Arctic region,possibly induced by the loss of sea ice in the East Siberian Sea,a condition that can be detected two months in advance.The stronger MC and ACKI jointly contribute to the observed enhancement in the East Asian summer monsoon in NEA since 2000 by facilitating ascending motion and moisture transport.Therefore,the SST anomaly in the NA,which is responsible for the intensified rainfall in the rainy season in NEA,coupled with the sea ice conditions in the East Siberian Sea,provides a potential prediction source for the retreat of the rainy season.