Probability distributions are derived for real-world situations where the environment may be subject to high volatility involving radical revisions in probability judgments.A simple procedure is outlined deriving an i...Probability distributions are derived for real-world situations where the environment may be subject to high volatility involving radical revisions in probability judgments.A simple procedure is outlined deriving an initial probability distribution which may then be adjusted to reflect additional or new information.The trade-off between minimal computation and maximum information is examined.展开更多
Using spreadsheets and ranges for pairwise judgments,candidate probability distributions are generated for the decision-maker to consider.This replaces event-by-event determination of probabilities.Basic statistics of...Using spreadsheets and ranges for pairwise judgments,candidate probability distributions are generated for the decision-maker to consider.This replaces event-by-event determination of probabilities.Basic statistics of the distributions are then used to determine a final distribution for decision purposes as in buy,sell,or hold.展开更多
Decision-makers in unique or one-off situations may have difficulties in framing the probabilities of possible events that are required in modern decision-making. This paper illustrates a new approach to probability d...Decision-makers in unique or one-off situations may have difficulties in framing the probabilities of possible events that are required in modern decision-making. This paper illustrates a new approach to probability determination based on pairwise primary judgments on the relative likelihoods of the possible events. Related “news” on the situation can also be used to update these prior probabilities using Bayesian Revision. Illustrative calculations outline the entire process through to determination of posterior probabilities following a “news” event.展开更多
This paper outlines a two-stage assessment procedure for deriving probabilities of unique events.The calculations are illustrated using possible events pertaining to the Lehman failure in 2008.The procedures utilize p...This paper outlines a two-stage assessment procedure for deriving probabilities of unique events.The calculations are illustrated using possible events pertaining to the Lehman failure in 2008.The procedures utilize pairwise comparisons associated with the Analytic Hierarchy Process.Typical betting odds are used to motivate an ordering of qualitative judgments that are then converted into quantitative assessments and finally a probability distribution.展开更多
A probability assessment framework is outlined that enables decision-makers to determine a probability distribution over possible events or scenarios they could face in the future.The methodology of the analytic hiera...A probability assessment framework is outlined that enables decision-makers to determine a probability distribution over possible events or scenarios they could face in the future.The methodology of the analytic hierarchy process can be utilized in the procedures.Bayesian revision accounting for new developments can be used to calculate posterior probabilities using the same procedures.展开更多
The methodology presented below can be viewed as a means of quantifying intuitions,guesses,hunches etc.,about relative likelihoods for alternative events leading to a“ballpark”probability distribution.Different intu...The methodology presented below can be viewed as a means of quantifying intuitions,guesses,hunches etc.,about relative likelihoods for alternative events leading to a“ballpark”probability distribution.Different intuitions etc.,will lead to different“ballpark”distributions.A final distribution can then be formulated by the decision-maker using other information as in minimum or maximum collective probabilities for groups of events or similar assessments.Final judgments may be idiosyncratic to the decision-maker and not easily replicable in an algorithm.展开更多
Probability distributions are derived for real-world situations involving hard-to-quantify outcomes unlike drug trials for example.Scenarios may involve levels of satisfaction,risk,inflation,etc.,that show extreme vol...Probability distributions are derived for real-world situations involving hard-to-quantify outcomes unlike drug trials for example.Scenarios may involve levels of satisfaction,risk,inflation,etc.,that show extreme volatility over time requiring frequent updating.Pairwise judgments by the decision-maker form the basis for the simple calculations that could replace traditional revision of prior distributions.展开更多
文摘Probability distributions are derived for real-world situations where the environment may be subject to high volatility involving radical revisions in probability judgments.A simple procedure is outlined deriving an initial probability distribution which may then be adjusted to reflect additional or new information.The trade-off between minimal computation and maximum information is examined.
文摘Using spreadsheets and ranges for pairwise judgments,candidate probability distributions are generated for the decision-maker to consider.This replaces event-by-event determination of probabilities.Basic statistics of the distributions are then used to determine a final distribution for decision purposes as in buy,sell,or hold.
文摘Decision-makers in unique or one-off situations may have difficulties in framing the probabilities of possible events that are required in modern decision-making. This paper illustrates a new approach to probability determination based on pairwise primary judgments on the relative likelihoods of the possible events. Related “news” on the situation can also be used to update these prior probabilities using Bayesian Revision. Illustrative calculations outline the entire process through to determination of posterior probabilities following a “news” event.
文摘This paper outlines a two-stage assessment procedure for deriving probabilities of unique events.The calculations are illustrated using possible events pertaining to the Lehman failure in 2008.The procedures utilize pairwise comparisons associated with the Analytic Hierarchy Process.Typical betting odds are used to motivate an ordering of qualitative judgments that are then converted into quantitative assessments and finally a probability distribution.
文摘A probability assessment framework is outlined that enables decision-makers to determine a probability distribution over possible events or scenarios they could face in the future.The methodology of the analytic hierarchy process can be utilized in the procedures.Bayesian revision accounting for new developments can be used to calculate posterior probabilities using the same procedures.
文摘The methodology presented below can be viewed as a means of quantifying intuitions,guesses,hunches etc.,about relative likelihoods for alternative events leading to a“ballpark”probability distribution.Different intuitions etc.,will lead to different“ballpark”distributions.A final distribution can then be formulated by the decision-maker using other information as in minimum or maximum collective probabilities for groups of events or similar assessments.Final judgments may be idiosyncratic to the decision-maker and not easily replicable in an algorithm.
文摘Probability distributions are derived for real-world situations involving hard-to-quantify outcomes unlike drug trials for example.Scenarios may involve levels of satisfaction,risk,inflation,etc.,that show extreme volatility over time requiring frequent updating.Pairwise judgments by the decision-maker form the basis for the simple calculations that could replace traditional revision of prior distributions.
