AIM To identify objective predictive factors for donor after cardiac death(DCD) graft loss and using those factors, develop a donor recipient stratification risk predictive model that could be used to calculate a DCD ...AIM To identify objective predictive factors for donor after cardiac death(DCD) graft loss and using those factors, develop a donor recipient stratification risk predictive model that could be used to calculate a DCD risk index(DCD-RI) to help in prospective decision making on organ use.METHODS The model included objective data from a single institute DCD database(2005-2013, n = 261). Univariate survival analysis was followed by adjusted Cox-regressional hazard model. Covariates selected via univariate regression were added to the model via forward selection, significance level P = 0.3. The warm ischemic threshold was clinically set at 30 min. Points were given to each predictor in proportion to their hazard ratio. Using this model, the DCD-RI was calculated. The cohort was stratified to predict graft loss risk and respective graft survival calculated.RESULTS DCD graft survival predictors were primary indication for transplant(P = 0.066), retransplantation(P = 0.176), MELD > 25(P = 0.05), cold ischemia > 10 h(P = 0.292) and donor hepatectomy time > 60 min(P = 0.028).According to the calculated DCD-RI score three risk classes could be defined of low(DCD-RI < 1), standard(DCD-RI 2-4) and high risk(DCD-RI > 5) with a 5 years graft survival of 86%, 78% and 34%, respectively.CONCLUSION The DCD-RI score independently predicted graft loss(P < 0.001) and the DCD-RI class predicted graft survival(P < 0.001).展开更多
文摘AIM To identify objective predictive factors for donor after cardiac death(DCD) graft loss and using those factors, develop a donor recipient stratification risk predictive model that could be used to calculate a DCD risk index(DCD-RI) to help in prospective decision making on organ use.METHODS The model included objective data from a single institute DCD database(2005-2013, n = 261). Univariate survival analysis was followed by adjusted Cox-regressional hazard model. Covariates selected via univariate regression were added to the model via forward selection, significance level P = 0.3. The warm ischemic threshold was clinically set at 30 min. Points were given to each predictor in proportion to their hazard ratio. Using this model, the DCD-RI was calculated. The cohort was stratified to predict graft loss risk and respective graft survival calculated.RESULTS DCD graft survival predictors were primary indication for transplant(P = 0.066), retransplantation(P = 0.176), MELD > 25(P = 0.05), cold ischemia > 10 h(P = 0.292) and donor hepatectomy time > 60 min(P = 0.028).According to the calculated DCD-RI score three risk classes could be defined of low(DCD-RI < 1), standard(DCD-RI 2-4) and high risk(DCD-RI > 5) with a 5 years graft survival of 86%, 78% and 34%, respectively.CONCLUSION The DCD-RI score independently predicted graft loss(P < 0.001) and the DCD-RI class predicted graft survival(P < 0.001).
