Investigating the Changes in Air Pollutant Emissions over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region in February from 2014 to 2019 through an Inverse Emission Method

In recent years,China has implemented several measures to improve air quality.The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region is one area that has suffered from the most serious air pollution in China and has undergone huge changes in air quality in the past few years.How to scientifically assess these change processes remain the key issue in further improving the air quality over this region in the future.To evaluate the changes in major air pollutant emissions over this region,this paper employs ensemble Kalman filtering(EnKF)for integrating the national ground monitoring pollutant observation data and the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System(NAQPMS)simulation data to inversely estimate the emission rates of SO_(2),NOX,CO,and primary PM_(2.5)over BTH region in February from 2014 to 2019.The results show that SO_(2),NOX,CO,and primary PM_(2.5)emissions in the BTH region decreased in February from 2014 to 2019 by 83%,37%,41%,and 42%,while decreases in Beijing during this period were 86%,67%,59%,and 65%,respectively.Compared with the prior emission inventory,the inversion emission inventory reduces the uncertainty of multi-pollutant simulation in the BTH region,with simulated root mean square errors of the monthly average concentrations of SO_(2),NOX,PM_(2.5),and CO reduced by 41%,30%,31%,and 22%,respectively.The average uncertainties of SO_(2),NOX,PM_(2.5),and CO inversion emissions in2014-19 are±14.03%yr^(-1),±28.91%yr^(-1),±126.15%yr^(-1),and±43.58%yr^(-1).Compared with the uncertainty of MEIC emission,the uncertainties of all species changed by+2%yr^(-1),-2%yr^(-1),-26%yr^(-1),and-4%yr^(-1),respectively.The spatial distribution results illustrate that air pollutant emissions are mainly distributed over the eastern and southern BTH regions.The spatial gap between the inversion emissions and MEIC emissions was further closed in 2019 compared to 2014.The results of this paper can provide a new reference for assessing changes in air pollution emissions over the BTH region in recent years and validating a bottom-up emission inventory.

Breath-by-breath measurement of exhaled ammonia by acetonemodifier positive photoionization ion mobility spectrometry via online dilution and purging sampling

Exhaled ammonia(NH_(3))is an essential noninvasive biomarker for disease diagnosis.In this study,an acetone-modifier positive photoionization ion mobility spectrometry(AM-PIMS)method was developed for accurate qualitative and quantitative analysis of exhaled NH_(3)with high selectivity and sensitivity.Acetone was introduced into the drift tube along with the drift gas as a modifier,and the characteristic NH_(3)product ion peak of(C_(3)H_(6)O)_(4)NH_(4)^(+)(K_(0)=1.45 cm^(2)/V·s)was obtained through the ion-molecule reaction with acetone reactant ions(C_(3)H_(6)O)_(2)H^(+)(K_(0)=1.87 cm^(2)/V·s),which significantly increased the peak-to-peak resolution and improved the accuracy of exhaled NH_(3)qualitative identification.Moreover,the interference of high humidity and the memory effect of NH_(3)molecules were significantly reduced via online dilution and purging sampling,thus realizing breath-by-breath measurement.As a result,a wide quantitative range of 5.87-140.92μmol/L with a response time of 40 ms was achieved,and the exhaled NH_(3)profile could be synchronized with the concentration curve of exhaled CO_(2).Finally,the analytical capacity of AM-PIMS was demonstrated by measuring the exhaled NH_(3)of healthy subjects,demonstrating its great potential for clinical disease diagnosis.

Detection of <i>Acinetobacter baumannii</i>in the Oropharynx of Long-Term Hospitalized Patients and the Expression of <i>IntI</i>Gene Induced by Different Antibiotics

Acinetobacter baumannii is the main drug resistant bacteria in clinic at present, and its drug resistance is still rising rapidly. Integrons play an important role in bacterial acquisition of exogenous drug resistance genes. This study investigated A. baumannii colonization in oropharynx and the integron gene carrying, and the expressions of integrase gene were determined when exposed to the different concentrations of antibiotics. 64 hospitalized patients were collected during January 2019 to June in respiratory department of our hospital (the hospitalized time more than 14 days) in our experiment. All throat swab collections were used for DNA extraction, and A. baumannii identification and integron gene detection were done by PCR assay. A. baumannii strains isolated from the oropharynx were identified by MALD-TOF-MS technology and the drug resistance was also analyzed. When expose to a series of ceftazidime and imipenem (10 μg/mL, 5 μg/mL, 1 μg/mL, 0.1 μg/mL, 0.01 μg/mL), the expressions of integron gene in the strains originated from oropharynx were determined by qRT-PCR assay. The results of the PCR showed that 60 patients had detected the A. baumannii Ab-ITS gene and rA gene in throat swabs, wherein 43 patients with symptoms of infection and 17 without symptoms of infection. There was no significant difference in Ab-ITS gene and rA gene detection rates in the symptoms of infection and no symptoms of infection (P > 0.05). In total 60 cases of samples, 29 cases had detected the IntI genes. 6 strains of A. baumannii isolated from the throat swabs of hospitalized patients were multi-drug resistant bacteria with IntI gene and variable region genes. Gene sequencing analysis revealed that the variable region gene cassettes were aacA4-catB8-aadA1-qacEdelta1. When exposed to the concentration of 1 μg/mL and 5 μg/mL ceftazidime, the mRNA expression of IntI had significantly increase compared to the negative control (P < 0.05). When exposed to the concentration of 0.1 μg/mL, 1 μg/mL and 5 μg/mL imipenem, the mRNA expression of IntI had significantly increase compared to the negative control (P < 0.05). The results indicated that oropharyngeal microflora includes multidrug-resistant A. baumannii and carries ingegron genes in long-term hospitalized patients. The improper use of ceftazidime and imipenem might also contribute to the up-regulation of the integrase genes expression and the enhancement of bacterial resistance, which requires more attention in clinical work.

Evolution of the North Atlantic Current and Barents Ice Sheet as revealed by grain size populations in the northern Norwegian Sea during the last 60 ka

The grain size distribution of bulk sediment samples was decomposed in a core to reconstruct paleoceanographic evolution over the past 60 ka in the northern Norwegian Sea.The results show that sediments consisted of 3–4 grain populations derived from the North Atlantic Current(NAC)and Barents Ice Sheet(BIS).The grain size data suggest three palaeoceanographic evolution stages:(1)an environment affected by BIS and NAC and changed with the interstadial/stadial transition in phase with the Greenland ice-core record at 60–31 ka BP,during which discharge of icebergs and the content of the coarsest population containing ice-rafted debris(IRD)in the sediments increased significantly during stadial,while the fine silt population containing volcanic glasses increased with the enhancement of NAC during the interstadial;(2)an extreme environment controlled by BIS at31–13 ka BP.BIS reached to its maximum at about 31 ka BP and the turbid plumes that formed at the leading edge of BIS contributed to a significant increase in the clayey population in sediments.Icebergs drained into the northern Norwegian Sea with periodical calving of the BIS at 31–19 ka BP.Subsequently,the ablation of the BIS discharged massive floods with clayey sediments and icebergs into the Norwegian Sea at 19–13 ka BP,resulting in a constant increase in clay and IRD in sediments;and(3)a marine environment similar to the present one under the strong influence of NAC following the complete melting of the BIS after 13 ka BP,NAC is the dominant transport agent and no IRD occurred in sediments.The fine silt populations containing volcanic glasses transported by NAC significantly increased.

Trajectory of bearing movement during Oxford mobile-bearing unicompartmental knee arthroplasty using a kinematic alignment technique

To the Editor:Dislocation of the mobile bearing is the most common reason for revisions in Asian patients who undergo Oxford mobile-bearing unicompartmental knee arthroplasty(Oxford MB UKA),with an incidence rate as high as 7.9%.[1]Multiple studies have shown that the bearing dislocation rate is significantly higher in Asian than in Western patients.[2]A poor bearing movement trajectory was considered one of the risk factors.Malpositioning of the component results in a wider space between the margin of the bearing and the lateral wall of the tibial component,leading to a poor bearing movement trajectory and even bearing rotation.The superior surface is designed with high surrounding rims(higher in the anterior and posterior parts,lower in the medial and lateral parts).When rotation occurs,the lower rim loses its restriction to mutual movement of the bearing and femoral component,which leads to dislocation.

A review of recent advances(2018–2021)on tropical cyclone intensity change from operational perspectives,part 1:Dynamical model guidance

This review summarizes the rapporteur report on tropical cyclone(TC)intensity change from the operational perspective,as presented to the 10th International Workshop on TCs(IWTC-10)held in Bali,Indonesia,from Dec.5–9,2022.The accuracy of TC intensity forecasts issued by operational forecast centers depends on three aspects:real-time observations,TC dynamical model forecast guidance,and techniques and methods used by forecasters.The rapporteur report covers the progress made over the past four years(2018–2021)in all three aspects.This review focuses on the progress of dynamical model forecast guidance.The companion paper(Part II)summarizes the advance from operational centers.The dynamical model forecast guidance continues to be the main factor leading to the improvement of operational TC intensity forecasts.Here,we describe recent advances and developments of major operational regional dynamical TC models and their intensity forecast performance,including HWRF,HMON,COAMPS-TC,Met Office Regional Model,CMA-TYM,and newly developed HAFS.The performance of global dynamical models,including NOAA's GFS,Met Office Global Model(MOGM),JMA's GSM,and IFS(ECMWF),has also been improved in recent years due to their increased horizontal and vertical resolution as well as improved data assimilation systems.Recent challenging cases of rapid intensification are presented and discussed.

A review of recent advances(2018–2021)on tropical cyclone intensity change from operational perspectives,part 2:Forecasts by operational centers

This paper summarizes the progress and activities of tropical cyclone(TC)operational forecast centers during the last four years(2018–2021).It is part II of the review on TC intensity change from the operational perspective in the rapporteur report presented to the 10th International Workshop on TCs(IWTC)held in Bali,Indonesia,from Dec.5–9,2022.Part I of the review has focused on the progress of dynamical model forecast guidance.This part discusses the performance of TC intensity and rapid intensification forecasts from several operational centers.It is shown that the TC intensity forecast errors have continued to decrease since the 9th IWTC held in 2018.In particular,the improvement of rapid intensification forecasts has accelerated,compared with years before 2018.Consensus models,operational procedures,tools and techniques,as well as recent challenging cases from 2018 to 2021 identified by operational forecast centers are described.Research needs and recommendations are also discussed.©2023 The Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration.Publishing services by Elsevier B.V.on behalf of KeAi Communication Co.Ltd.This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

膝骨关节炎患者生活质量和非手术治疗方式的多中心横断面研究

目的探究膝骨关节炎患者健康相关生活质量(HRQoL)的影响因素,并分析膝骨关节炎的非手术治疗方式。方法收集2017年12月至2018年11月在北京市五家医院骨科门诊就诊的膝骨关节炎患者的人口统计学变量、治疗方式、影像学资料以及12条目简短生命质量量表(SF-12)评分,分析HRQoL的影响因素及非手术治疗方式。结果共纳入2034例患者,男530例(26.1%),女1504例(73.9%),年龄(59.17±10.22)岁。在躯体生活质量方面,与男性相比,女性膝骨关节炎患者的生理总评分较低(β=-0.521,P=0.036);与年龄<55岁者相比,年龄≥64岁者生理总评分较低(β=-0.636,P=0.026);与受教育年限≤9年的人群相比,受教育年限≥13年的人群生理总评分较高(β=1.063,P<0.001);与轻度临床症状者相比,中度临床症状者生理总评分较低(β=-0.860,P=0.002),而重度临床症状者则更低(β=-1.126,P<0.001)。与未经治疗者相比,采用多种方式联合治疗者生理总评分较高(β=0.731,P=0.005)。在心理生活质量方面,与久坐工作人群相比,轻度体力工作人群的心理总评分较低(β=-0.712,P=0.015);与Charson合并症指数为0的人群相比,Charson合并症指数≥2的人群心理总评分较低(β=-1.183,P=0.007)。在过去的12个月中,使用过非甾体类抗炎药、对乙酰氨基酚、氨基葡萄糖/软骨素制剂、物理治疗、关节腔穿刺注射药物、中医治疗以及运动治疗的患者分别为648例(31.9%)、143例(7.0%)、406例(20.0%)、680例(33.4%)、343例(16.9%)、681例(33.5%)、170例(8.4%)。使用单一治疗和联合治疗的患者分别为451例(22.2%)、889例(43.7%)。结论北京市膝骨关节炎患者的非手术治疗方式以非甾体抗炎药、理疗和中医治疗为主,联合治疗的使用比例高于单一治疗。躯体生活质量与性别、年龄、受教育程度、症状严重程度及治疗方式相关,而心理生活质量与职业劳动性质和合并症相关。

HWRF BASED ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM USING PERTURBATIONS FROM GEFS AND STOCHASTIC CONVECTIVE TRIGGER FUNCTION

In this study, an ensemble prediction system(EPS) for the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast(HWRF) model at the Environmental Modeling Center(EMC) of National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) is introduced and evaluated. The HWRF-EPS takes into account two main sources of uncertainties related to the initial/boundary conditions and the model physics by 1) using the large scale fields from NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System(GEFS);and 2) stochastically perturbing the convective trigger function in the cumulus convection parameterization scheme.Verification for the 2011-2012 North Atlantic hurricane seasons shows that HWRF-EPS outperforms its deterministic versions at all lead times for both track and intensity forecast errors. Statistical characteristics are investigated and analyzed to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the HWRF-EPS. The relationship between ensemble spread and forecast error for track and intensity in the HWRF-EPS indicated that the spread is likely more useful as a predictor of forecast error when it has moderately low values. Rank histogram analysis shows that the HWRF-EPS is well dispersed in both track and intensity forecasts except for the systematic errors inherited from the deterministic version. Further comparison with 2012 hurricane season’s top-flight models shows improved track and intensity forecasts from the HWRF-EPS.

ADVANCING THE STATE OF THE ART IN OPERATIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTING AT NCEP

Regional Hurricane modeling systems developed and implemented into operations at National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA)National Weather Service(NWS)are now used for tropical cyclone forecast guidance in all ocean basins of the world.Lately,HWRF(Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast)modeling system has made significant improvements to the state of the art in numerical guidance for tropical cyclone track,intensity,size,structure and rainfall forecasts.These improvements come from advances in various components of the modeling system that are incorporated into the model in yearly upgrade cycles.NWS/NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center’s hurricane team has also developed another non-hydrostatic hurricane model in NOAA Environmental Modeling System(NEMS)framework known as HMON(Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic)model which was implemented at NCEP operations this past year.Development of HMON is consistent with,and a step closer to developing Next Generation Global Prediction System(NGGPS)chosen Finite Volume Cubed-Sphere(FV3)dynamic core based global to local scale coupled models in a unified modeling framework.In this paper,operational configuration details of this new HMON model are discussed along with operational HWRF model upgrades,and their forecast performance is compared to other models.We also discuss plans for hurricane model improvements in the next two to five years.

Determinants in the forecast of the gross national income of China and India from 1952 to 2015

In 2015,China and India's population represented approximately 35.74%of the total number of people living in the world.Due to the historical context and behavior of the most relevant indicators,this study proposes to utilize a wide variety of demographic,economic,and production indicators from 1952 to 2015 to assess their impact on the GNI in China and India.A comprehensive and new fangled modeling process with stepwise,regularization and distributed lag regression approaches is presented.Accordingly,theoretical results were corroborated through extensive diagnostic tests and an empirical check of the models'predictive capacity.The findings show that GNI in China is most influenced by variables such as reserves in foreign currency and the dependency ratio;whereas,variables of energy production and birth rate were generated for India.Therefore,it's the timing for China to relax the universal two-child policy.Due to the current value below the substitution rate,a gloomy outlook for China's future population and economy is predicted.Conversely,a positive outlook is forecasted for India,given the low price in the future of oil-India's primary raw material.

Evolution of interface character distribution in duplex stainless steel processed by cross-rolling and annealing

Duplex stainless steel UNS S31803 samples were cross-rolled with a true strain of ε = 2 followed by annealing at 1323 K for 2 min and 240 min, respectively. The distributions of intervariant boundary planes in the precipitated austenite（A） from ferrite（F） and phase boundary planes conforming to Kurdjumov-Sache（K-S） orientation relationship（OR） were characterized by electron backscatter diffraction（EBSD） and the five-para me ter analysis（FPA） method, respectively. The intervariant boundary planes with misorientation angle of 60° around 〈111 〉 and 〈011 〉 occur frequently and tend to terminate on the {111} plane. At the grain size level of 4 μm, the phase boundary appears to be connected with the K-S OR terminating on{110}F ｜｜ {111}A at the early stage of annealing. When the grain size reaches approximately 20 μm, phase boundary was modified into {541}F｜｜{533}A due to twinning in austenite during annealing.

Copper(I)-Catalyzed Interrupted Click/Sulfenylation Cascade:One-Pot Synthesis of Sulfur Cycle Fused 1,2,3-Triazoles

Herein,we report a practical protocol for the synthesis of sulfur cycle fused 1,2,3-triazoles through a copper(I)-catalyzed tandem click/intramolecular sulfenylation reaction.The reaction proceeded via a copper-catalyzed alkyne azide cycloaddition,followed by interception of the in situ formed cuprate-triazole intermediate with p-toluenesulfonothioate.This reaction shows broad substrate scope,complete regioselectivity,and excellent functional group tolerance under mild reaction conditions.

Establishment and verification of a shrinking core model for dilute acid hydrolysis of lignocellulose

The kinetics oflignocellulose hydrolysis under the conditions of high temperature and dilute acid （mass fraction 0.05%） was investigated in this paper. By studying the reducing sugar concentration versus reaction tempera ture （170℃-220℃） and reaction time （150-1800 s） during the hydrolysis process of five kinds of crop straw （rice, wheat, cotton, rape and corn）, the shrinking core model was established, and the differential equation of the model and its analytical solution were obtained. With a numerical calculation method, the kinetic equation was estimated, and the degradation of reducing sugar obeyed firstorder kinetics was obtained. The calculated results from the equations agreed well with the original experimental data. The calculation by the model showed that the reducing sugar concentration increases as the size of the particles decrease, and the uniform particles increase.