Yield forecasting can give early warning of food risks and provide solid support for food security planning.Climate change and land use change have direct influence on regional yield and planting area of maize,but few...Yield forecasting can give early warning of food risks and provide solid support for food security planning.Climate change and land use change have direct influence on regional yield and planting area of maize,but few studies have examined their synergistic impact on maize production.In this study,we propose an analysis framework based on the integration of system dynamic(SD),future land use simulation(FLUS)and a statistical crop model to prefuture maize yield variation in response to climate change and land use change in a region of central Jilin province,China.The results show that the cultivated land is likely to reduce by 862.84 km^(2) from 2030 to 2050.Nevertheless,the total maize yield is expected to increase under all four RCP scenarios due to the promotion of per hectare maize yield.the scenarios,RCP4.5 is the most beneficial to maize production,with a doubled total yield in 2050.Notably,the yield gap between different counties will be further widened,which necessitates the differentiated policies of agricultural production and farmland protection,e.g.,strengthening cultivated land protection and crop management in low-yield areas,and taking adaptation and mitigation measures to coordinate climate change and production.展开更多
In order to understand better on medium-and long-term climate change issues in international cooperation of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI),this paper is meant to assess the implementation of National Determined Con...In order to understand better on medium-and long-term climate change issues in international cooperation of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI),this paper is meant to assess the implementation of National Determined Contributions(NDCs)of the BRI countries and the emission constraints under the Paris Agreement to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2℃ above pre-industrial levels,based on the Belt and Road Integrated Assessment Model(BRIAM)and the best available data.The results show that the BRI countries are expected to collectively reduce about 3.2 billion tons of CO_(2)emissions with the implementation of their NDCs by 2030.In order to achieve the global goal of 2℃,without appropriate mitigation burden sharing and enhanced climate finance support,the BRI countries will face big challenges to bridge the emission gaps.The investment in clean energy and related new infrastructures in BRI will rise sharply to above US$100 trillion by the end of this century accordingly with the increase in carbon price,which will also eventually have a significant impact on the price of electricity and oversea freight transport in a connecting world.展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42171414,No.41771429The Open Fund of Key Laboratory for Synergistic Prevention of Water and Soil Environmental Pollution,No.KLSPWSEP-A02。
文摘Yield forecasting can give early warning of food risks and provide solid support for food security planning.Climate change and land use change have direct influence on regional yield and planting area of maize,but few studies have examined their synergistic impact on maize production.In this study,we propose an analysis framework based on the integration of system dynamic(SD),future land use simulation(FLUS)and a statistical crop model to prefuture maize yield variation in response to climate change and land use change in a region of central Jilin province,China.The results show that the cultivated land is likely to reduce by 862.84 km^(2) from 2030 to 2050.Nevertheless,the total maize yield is expected to increase under all four RCP scenarios due to the promotion of per hectare maize yield.the scenarios,RCP4.5 is the most beneficial to maize production,with a doubled total yield in 2050.Notably,the yield gap between different counties will be further widened,which necessitates the differentiated policies of agricultural production and farmland protection,e.g.,strengthening cultivated land protection and crop management in low-yield areas,and taking adaptation and mitigation measures to coordinate climate change and production.
基金This work was supported by the The National Key Research and Development Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology,the Special Project of Global Change and Response[2017YFA0605301].
文摘In order to understand better on medium-and long-term climate change issues in international cooperation of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI),this paper is meant to assess the implementation of National Determined Contributions(NDCs)of the BRI countries and the emission constraints under the Paris Agreement to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2℃ above pre-industrial levels,based on the Belt and Road Integrated Assessment Model(BRIAM)and the best available data.The results show that the BRI countries are expected to collectively reduce about 3.2 billion tons of CO_(2)emissions with the implementation of their NDCs by 2030.In order to achieve the global goal of 2℃,without appropriate mitigation burden sharing and enhanced climate finance support,the BRI countries will face big challenges to bridge the emission gaps.The investment in clean energy and related new infrastructures in BRI will rise sharply to above US$100 trillion by the end of this century accordingly with the increase in carbon price,which will also eventually have a significant impact on the price of electricity and oversea freight transport in a connecting world.
