Forests are chiefly responsible for the terrestrial carbon sink that greatly re duces the buildup of CO_(2)concentrations in the atmosphere and alleviates climate change.Current predictions of terrestrial carbon sinks...Forests are chiefly responsible for the terrestrial carbon sink that greatly re duces the buildup of CO_(2)concentrations in the atmosphere and alleviates climate change.Current predictions of terrestrial carbon sinks in the future have so far ignored the variation of forest carbon uptake with forest age.Here,we predict the role of China's current forest age in future carbon sink capacity by generating a high-resolution(30 m)forest age map in 2019 over China's landmass using satellite and forest inventory data and deriving forest growth curves using measurements of forest biomass and age in 3,121 plots.As China's forests currently have large proportions of young and middle-age stands,we project that China's forests will maintain high growth rates for about 15 years.However,as the forests grow older,their net primary productivity will decline by 5.0%±1.4%in 2050,8.4%±1.6%in 2060,and 16.6%±2.8%in 2100,indicating weakened carbon sinks in the near future.The weakening of forest carbon sinks can be potentially mitigated by optimizing forest age structure through selective logging and implementing new or improved afforestation.This finding is important not only for the global carbon cycle and climate projections but also for developing forest management strategies to enhance land sinks by alleviating the age effect.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41991230)the European Research Council(ERC grant agreement 647038(BIODESERT))Generalitat Valenciana(CIDEGENT/2018/041)。
基金National Natural Science Foundationof China(grant nos.42101367 to R.S.and 42201360 to M.X.)Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province(grant no.2021J05041 to R.S.)+1 种基金Fujan Forestry Science and Technology Key Project(grant no.2022FKJ03 to R.S)Open Fund Project of the Academy of Carbon Neutrality of Fujian Normal University(grant no.TZH2022-02 to R.S).
文摘Forests are chiefly responsible for the terrestrial carbon sink that greatly re duces the buildup of CO_(2)concentrations in the atmosphere and alleviates climate change.Current predictions of terrestrial carbon sinks in the future have so far ignored the variation of forest carbon uptake with forest age.Here,we predict the role of China's current forest age in future carbon sink capacity by generating a high-resolution(30 m)forest age map in 2019 over China's landmass using satellite and forest inventory data and deriving forest growth curves using measurements of forest biomass and age in 3,121 plots.As China's forests currently have large proportions of young and middle-age stands,we project that China's forests will maintain high growth rates for about 15 years.However,as the forests grow older,their net primary productivity will decline by 5.0%±1.4%in 2050,8.4%±1.6%in 2060,and 16.6%±2.8%in 2100,indicating weakened carbon sinks in the near future.The weakening of forest carbon sinks can be potentially mitigated by optimizing forest age structure through selective logging and implementing new or improved afforestation.This finding is important not only for the global carbon cycle and climate projections but also for developing forest management strategies to enhance land sinks by alleviating the age effect.
