地球系统模式FIO-ESM v2.0对北太平洋年代际气候变化的模拟评估

数值模拟方法在研究长时间的气候变化上扮演着重要角色。一直以来,数值模式模拟年代际气候变化如太平洋年代际震荡(PDO)的位相转换存在巨大挑战。本文利用自然资源部第一海洋研究所研发的地球系统模式(First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model Version 2,FIO-ESM v2.0)145年(1870–2014年)历史气候模拟试验结果,结合再分析资料和另外两个地球系统模式结果,分析评估了该模式对太平洋年代际振荡的模拟能力。研究发现,FIO-ESM v2.0能够再现历史时期PDO的空间模态分布特征,其PDO指数具有10~30年的周期变化特征,同时于1960年以后能刻画出与再分析数据结果相近的PDO位相转变特征。研究表明,FIO-ESM v2.0能够较为准确地模拟出PDO的位相转变特征。另外,本文还评估了该模式对大气环流模态的模拟能力及其与PDO之间的关系,以及该模式模拟PDO的可能机制。该模式的PDO与大气环流的阿留申低压模态相关。进一步的分析表明,平流作用和热通量是关键年代际海域海温异常振幅的主要因素,而罗斯贝波西传时间则可能是影响PDO位相转变的关键因素。

The numerical investigation of seasonal variation of the cold water mass in the Beibu Gulf and its mechanisms

A wave-tide-circulation coupled model based on the Princeton Ocean Model is established to explore the seasonal variation of the cold water mass in the Beibu Gulf and its mechanisms. The results show that the cold water mass starts forming in March, reaches the maximum strength during June and July, and fades away since October. Strong mixing in winter transports the cold water from sea surface to bottom. The cold water mass remains in the bottom layer as the thermocline strengthens during spring, except for the shallow water where the themocline is broken by strong tidal mixing, which gradually separate the cold water mass from its surrounding warm water. Further analysis on the ocean current and stream function confirms that the cold water mass in the Beibu Gulf is locally developed, with an anticlockwise circulation caused by a strong temperature gradient. Sensitivity experiments reveal that the cold water mass is controlled by the sea surface heat flux, while the terrain and tidal mixing also play important roles.

A numerical study of summertime expansion pattern of Changjiang (Yangtze) River diluted water

Observations show that during summer especially in August, the northward expansion of the Changjiang（Yangtze） River diluted water （CRDW） is blocked in the vicinity of the Changjiang Estuary. To explain this phenomenon, Princeton ocean model （POM） is applied to simulate the summertime expansion pattern of CRDW. Numerical experiments show that to the north of the Changjiang Estuary, a tide-induced temperature front of a cold water centered at （34°N, I22.5°E） plays the key role in determining the expansion pattern of CRDW. This front splits the CRDW into two parts： the main part expands northeastward, and the other small part expands northwestward off the coast of Jiangsu Province, China.

A numerical study of the wintertime double-warm-tongue structure in the Huanghai(Yellow) Sea

Satellite remote sensing observations show that during winter, sea surface temperature （SST） presents the structure of double warm tongues in the Huanghai Sea trough： the western and the eastern warm tongues. Numerical experiments based on POM are carried out to study the forming mechanism of this thermal structure and its relation to the Huanghai Sea Warm Current （HSWC）. The control experiment reproduces this phenomenon quite well, and comparing experiments investigate the effect of wind and tide. It is found that the western warm tongue is mainly caused by the HSWC, which can be strengthened by wintertime southward wind. The eastern warm tongue develops under the influence of an anti-clockwise circulation which is induced by the temperature front of the Huanghai Sea Cold Water Mass （HSCWM） in summer and autumn. In the eastern portion of this circulation, the northward current carries warm water to the north, forming the eastern warm tongue, which remains till winter.

Verification of an operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting system for the China＇s seas

An operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting system for the seas off China and adjacent areas（OCFS-C） is developed based on parallelized circulation and wave models. It has been in operation since November 1, 2007. In this paper we comprehensively present the simulation and verification of the system, whose distinguishing feature is that the wave-induced mixing is coupled in the circulation model. In particular, with nested technique the resolution in the China＇s seas has been updated to（1/24）° from the global model with（1/2）°resolution. Besides, daily remote sensing sea surface temperature（SST） data have been assimilated into the model to generate a hot restart field for OCFS-C. Moreover, inter-comparisons between forecasting and independent observational data are performed to evaluate the effectiveness of OCFS-C in upper-ocean quantities predictions, including SST, mixed layer depth（MLD） and subsurface temperature. Except in conventional statistical metrics, non-dimensional skill scores（SS） is also used to evaluate forecast skill. Observations from buoys and Argo profiles are used for lead time and real time validations, which give a large SS value（more than 0.90）. Besides, prediction skill for the seasonal variation of SST is confirmed. Comparisons of subsurface temperatures with Argo profiles data indicate that OCFS-C has low skill in predicting subsurface temperatures between 100 m and 150 m. Nevertheless, inter-comparisons of MLD reveal that the MLD from model is shallower than that from Argo profiles by about 12 m, i.e., OCFS-C is successful and steady in MLD predictions. Validation of 1-d, 2-d and 3-d forecasting SST shows that our operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting model has reasonable accuracy in the upper ocean.

Reconstruction of eddies by assimilating satellite altimeter data into Princeton Ocean Model

An optimal interpolation assimilation model for satellite altimetry data is developed based on Princeton Ocean Model （POM）, which is applied in a quasi-global domain, by the method of isotropic correlation between sea level anomaly （SLA） and sea temperature anomaly. The performance of this assimilation model is validated by the modeled results of SLA and the current patterns. Comparisons between modeling and satellite data show that both the magnitudes and distribution patterns of the sinmlated SLA are improved by assimilation. The most significant improvement is that meso-scale systems, e.g., eddies, are well reconstructed. The evolution of an eddy located in the northwest Pacific Ocean is traced by using the assimilation model. Model results show that during three months the eddy migrated southwestward for about 6 degrees before merging into the Kuroshio. The three dimensional structure of this eddy on 12 August 2001 is further analyzed. The strength of this warm, cyclonic eddy decreases with the increase of depth. The eddy shows different horizontal patterns at different layers, and the SLA and temperature fields agree with each other well. This study suggests that this kind of data assimilation is economic and reliable for eddy reconstruction, and can be used as a promising technique in further studies of ocean eddies as well as other fine circulation structures.

日本海中尺度涡旋时空变化特征研究

本文利用1993–2019年基于海表面高度异常的涡旋数据集和高度计数据统计分析了日本海区域中尺度涡旋的大小、极性、生命周期、振幅、传播等表面特征的时空变化规律。27年间,共探测到1429个涡旋,气旋和反气旋数量基本相当,其中气旋675个,反气旋754个。两种极性涡旋均具有较强的季节变化:秋季较多,冬季次之,春季最少。郁陵盆地、大和盆地等为涡旋多发区域呈现西南–东北向带状分布。其中,南部海域反气旋占优,靠近津轻海峡的北部海域气旋占优。西部和南部受东韩暖流和对马暖流的驱动,涡旋移动方向与流场基本一致,北部涡旋与黎曼寒流以及副极地锋流有关。研究表明,动力学不稳定是涡旋在秋冬季大量产生的重要原因。此外,半封闭盆地、局地流场以及复杂的海气相互作用等都可能会对涡旋的产生和消亡造成一定影响。

Case study on the three-dimensional structure of meso-scale eddy in the South China Sea based on a high-resolution model

Meso-scale eddies are important features in the South China Sea（SCS）. The eddies with diameters of 50–200 km can greatly impact the transport of heat, momentum, and tracers. A high-resolution wave-tide-circulation coupled model was developed to simulate the meso-scale eddy in the SCS in this study. The aim of this study is to examine the model ability to simulate the meso-scale eddy in the SCS without data assimilations The simulated Sea Surface Height（SSH） anomalies agree with the observed the AVISO SSH anomalies well. The simulated subsurface temperature profiles agree with the CTD observation data from the ROSE（Responses of Marine Hazards to climate change in the Western Pacific） project. The simulated upper-ocean currents also agree with the main circulation based on observations. A warm eddy is identified in winter in the northern SCS. The position and domain of the simulated eddy are confirmed by the observed sea surface height data from the AVISO. The result shows that the model has the ability to simulate the meso-scale eddy in the SCS without data assimilation.The three-dimensional structure of the meso-scale eddy in the SCS is analyzed using the model result. It is found that the eddy center is tilted vertically, which agrees with the observation. It is also found that the velocity center of the eddy does not coincide with the temperature center of the eddy. The result shows that the model has the ability to simulate the meso-scale eddy in the SCS without data assimilations. Further study on the forming mechanism and the three-dimensional structure of the meso-scale eddies will be carried out using the model result and cruise observation data in the near future.

A numerical investigation into the long-term behaviors of Fukushima-derived ^(137)Cs in the ocean

The Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011 released large amounts of radionuclides, including ^（137）Cs, into the Pacific Ocean. A quasi-global ocean radioactive transport model with horizontal grid spacing of 0.5°×0.5° and 21 vertical layers was thereafter established to study the long-term transport of the Fukushima-derived ^（137）Cs in the ocean.The simulation shows that the plume of ^（137）Cs would be rapidly transported eastward alongside the Kuroshio Current and its extensions. Contaminated waters with concentrations lower than 2 Bq/m3 would reach the west coast of North America 4 or 5 years after the accident. The ^（137）Cs tends to be carried, despite its very low concentration, into the Indian and South Pacific Oceans by 2016 via various branches of ocean currents.Meanwhile, the ^（137）Cs concentrations in the western part of the North Pacific Ocean decrease rapidly with time. Up to now the highly contaminated waters have remained in the upper 400 m, showing no evidence of significant penetration to deeper layers.

Analysis of the high and low temperature centers and their relation with circulations in the East China Sea

Three warm currents, the Kuroshio, its shelf intrusion branch in the northeast of Taiwan and the Taiwan Warm Current （hereafter TWC）, dominate the circulation pattern in the East China Sea （hereafter ECS）. Their origination, routes and variation in winter and summer are studied. Their relationship with four major high and low temperature centers is analyzed. Differing from the previous opinion, we suggest that the four major centers are generated to a great extent by the interaction of the currents in the ECS. In summer, a cold water belt in the northeast of Taiwan is preserved from winter between the Kuroshio and the TWC. The shelf intrusion branch of the Kuroshio separates the water belt, and two low temperature centers generate in the northeast of Taiwan. In the southern ECS, the TWC transports more heat flux northward to form a warm pool. But it is separated in the lower layer by the cold water driven by the intrusion branch of the Kuroshio. So the TWC and the intrusion branch of the Kuroshio play a dominating role to generate the high temperature center. The interaction among the eastward TWC, the northward Tsushima Warm Current （hereafter TSWC） and the southward Su Bei Coastal Flow （hereafter SBCF） generates the low temperature center in the northern ECS. In winter, the strengthening of the shelf intrusion branch of the Kuroshio obscures the two low temperature centers in the northeast of Taiwan. For the weakening of the TWC, the high temperature center in the southern ECS vanishes, and the low temperature center in the northern ECS shifts to south.

The impact of surface waves on the mixing of the upper ocean

A new three-dimensional numerical model is derived through a wave average on the primitive N-S equations, in which both the＂Coriolis-Stokes forcing＂ and the＂Stokes-Vortex force＂ are considered. Three ideal experiments are run using the new model applied to the Princeton ocean model （POM）. Numerical results show that surface waves play an important role on the mixing of the upper ocean. The mixed layer is enhanced when wave effect is considered in conjunction with small Langmuir numbers. Both surface wave breaking and Stokes production can strengthen the turbulent mixing near the surface. However, the influence of wave breaking is limited to a thin layer, but Stokes drift can affect the whole mixed layer. Furthermore, the vertical mixing coefficients clearly rise in the mixed layer, and the upper ocean mixed layer is deepened especially in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current when the model is applied to global simulations. It indicates that the surface gravity waves are indispensable in enhancing the mixing in the upper ocean, and should be accounted for in ocean general circulation models.

Recognition on the forming-vanishing process and underlying mechanisms of the hypoxia off the Yangtze River estuary

On the basis of compiled multidisciplinary historical data in 2006-2007 and incorporation of relevant simulation results and re- mote sensing data, we performed an in-depth study of the generation and dissipation process of the hypoxic zone and its distribu- tion morphology and structure off the Yangtze River estuary, Based on the hydrological circulation dynamics, reproduction of phytoplankton （leading to the decomposition of organic matter）, and other factors, we comprehensively and systematically inves- tigated the generation and dissipation of the hypoxic zone and underlying mechanisms for the seasonal variation in its position, explored the multi-factorial synergistic reactions during the generation and dissipation process of the hypoxic zone, and revealed the controlled mechanism for the morphology and structure of the hypoxic zone＇s distribution. Our studies indicate that in the winter and spring seasons, the hydrological environment off the Yangtze River estuary provides a water body with relatively low contents of dissolved oxygen （DO）, which is the background for the formation of a hypoxic zone. After entering into the summer season, the hypoxic zone gradually develops towards the north and becomes mature. Because of the impact of the terrain, local decomposition of organic matter, and upwelling of the Kuroshio subsurface water in July-August, the bypoxic zone off the Yang- tze River estuary exhibits the characteristics of discontinuous distribution in space and has a south and north ＂dual-core＂ structure in the inner continental shelf. In addition, there is a hypoxic core in the eastern outer continental shelf. The degrees of hypoxia vary for different areas; they are strongest overall in the north, next strongest in the south; they are weakest on the outer continen- tal shelf. In summer, the hypoxic zone in the north is related to the northward differentiation of the southern hypoxic zone and re- sults from local development and intensification. In August, the hypoxic zone in the north reaches its peak, and after September, it rapidly retreats southward and disappears because of weakening stratification. In the fall, there is hypoxic zone along the coast of Zhejiang in the south, and there is also a low-DO area to the southwest of Jeju Island, with both zones disappearing rapidly. In addition, the change of dynamic environment also causes the low-DO area of the outer continental shelf to move outward in the fall. The variation in the intensity of the stratification and its cumulative effects as a barrier of vertical DO transportation over long pe- riods of time have a significant impact on the degree of hypoxia in the hypoxic zone. In addition, the seasonal variations in the size of the stratified region, intensity of each current system/water mass, upwelling, front, and high-value area of phytoplankton biomass jointly restrict the extension of the hypoxic zone in the inner continental shelf and latitudinal （south-north direction） movement of its location off the Yangtze River estuary. The combined effect of dynamic factors, such as that of the Kuroshio subsurface water, causes a low-DO core in the outer continental shelI： The bottom cold water to the north of the East China Sea is the dynamic basis for the formation of the low-DO area to the southwest of Jeju Island during the fall season. The special seabed to- pography and mud area distribution off the Yangtze River estuary have a certain degree of influence on the development of the hypoxic zone. The generation and dissipation of the hypoxic zone and its distribution morphology off the Yangtze River estuary, and seasonal variation of its structure and position are a result of the synergistic effects of various factors.