基于WW3的南海北部有效波高时空变化及其极值重现期估算方法分析

本文基于第3代海浪模式WAVEWATCHⅢ(WW3)模拟的1996–2015年海浪后报数据,分析了南海北部有效波高及其极值的时空变化特征,并采用Pearson-Ⅲ和Gumbel两种极值分布方法对该区极值波高重现期进行了估算。结果表明,南海北部有效波高的季节变化和空间分布与季风风场基本一致,呈现秋冬高春夏低,并自吕宋海峡西侧向西南降低的特征,与ERA5再分析数据结果高度相似。有效波高极值(简称极值波高)的时空分布特征受时间分辨率强烈影响,采用极值数据的分辨率越高(如逐小时),所展现的台风型波浪特征越显著。扣除季节变化信号后的有效波高和年极值波高均体现出较强的线性增高趋势,近20年升高的比例分别为7.7%和31.6%,值得警惕和关注。该区多年一遇极值波高存在若干个大值区,且与台风的路径、强度有直接联系,表明台风是引发该区域极端大浪的最主要机制。对比Pearson-Ⅲ和Gumbel极值分布估算结果发现:若极值波高较低,频率随极值波高升高缓慢降低,此时两种极值分布的估算都比较准确,差异极小,可忽略不计;但当研究时间范围内,某年极值波高远超其他年份时,Pearson-Ⅲ极值分布估算结果明显高于Gumbel极值分布估算结果,且更接近实际极值波高,即Pearson-Ⅲ极值分布在此情况下表现更好。本研究表明对于特定海区,在出现超强台风引发极值波高远超出其他年份时,不同计算方法对极值波高的估算差异较大,会显著影响重现期的评估。此外,南海北部年极值波高的强烈增高趋势,也可能给计算未来极值波高重现期和海上工程防护带来不可忽视的影响。

南极普里兹湾达恩利角固定冰附近局地高密陆架水的来源

本文采用固定冰数据集和南极象海豹获取的现场观测数据集,分析了南极达恩利角固定冰附近局地高密陆架水的变化。结果表明:首先,达恩利角固定冰存在显著季节变化,对于达恩利角冰间湖及局地高密陆架水的生成都具有重要影响。其次,达恩利角固定冰在2000-2014年期间年际变化很小,无显著增减趋势。第三,达恩利角固定冰附近局地高密陆架水有两个显著来源:(1)3-4月,达恩利角固定冰快速生成时伴随着强烈的盐析作用,进而局地生成高密陆架水;(2)5月,达恩利角固定冰达到最大范围,局地盐析作用减弱至很小,而上游在冰架水抑制作用减弱后,麦肯基湾冰间湖海域的高密陆架水生成增强,能够向西北输运至达恩利角固定冰附近。本研究初步证明达恩利角固定冰除了维持达恩利角冰间湖存在的作用外,对局地高密陆架水生成也可能有重要影响,同时指出一条重要的水团输运路径,这有助于提高对达恩利角附近冰-海相互作用的理解,对该地区开展更多观测或模拟研究是必要的。

North Pacific Eastern Subtropical Mode Water simulation and future projection

The present climate simulation and future projection of the Eastern Subtropical Mode Water （ESTMW） in the North Pacific are investigated based on the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model （GFDL-ESM2M）. Spatial patterns of the mixed layer depth （MLD） in the eastern subtropical North Pacific and the ESTMW are well simulated using this model. Compared with historical simulation, the ESTMW is produced at lighter isopycnal surfaces and its total volume is decreased in the RCP8.5 runs, because the subduction rate of the ESTMW decreases by 0.82×10？6 m/s during February–March. In addition, it is found that the lateral induction decreasing is approximately four times more than the Ekman pumping, and thus it plays a dominant role in the decreased subduction rate associated with global warming. Moreover, the MLD during February–March is banded shoaling in response to global warming, extending northeastward from the east of the Hawaii Islands （20°N, 155°W） to the west coast of North America （30°N, 125°W）, with a max-imum shoaling of 50 m, and then leads to the lateral induction reduction. Meanwhile, the increased north-eastward surface warm current to the east of Hawaii helps strengthen of the local upper ocean stratification and induces the banded shoaling MLD under warmer climate. This new finding indicates that the ocean surface currents play an important role in the response of the MLD and the ESTMW to global warming.

On the subtropical Northeast Pacific mixed layer depth and its influence on the subduction

The present climate simulations of the mixed layer depth（MLD） and the subduction rate in the subtropical Northeast Pacific are investigated based on nine of the CMIP5 models. Compared with the observation data,spatial patterns of the MLD and the subduction rate are well simulated in these models. The spatial pattern of the MLD is nonuniform, with a local maximum MLD（〉140 m） region centered at（28°N, 135°W） in late winter. The nonuniform MLD pattern causes a strong MLD front on the south of the MLD maximum region, controls the lateral induction rate pattern, and then decides the nonuniform distribution of the subduction rate. Due to the inter-regional difference of the MLD, we divide this area into two regions. The relatively uniform Ekman pumping has little effect on the nonuniform subduction spatial pattern, though it is nearly equal to the lateral induction in values. In the south region, the northward warm Ekman advection（–1.75×10–7 K/s） controls the ocean horizontal temperature advection（–0.85×10–7 K/s）, and prevents the deepening of the MLD. In the ensemble mean, the contribution of the ocean advection to the MLD is about –29.0 m/month, offsetting the sea surface net heat flux contribution（33.9 m/month）. While in the north region, the southward cold advection deepens the MLD（21.4 m/month） as similar as the heat flux（30.4 m/month）. In conclusion, the nonuniform MLD pattern is dominated by the nonuniform ocean horizontal temperature advection. This new finding indicates that the upper ocean current play an important role in the variability of the winter MLD and the subduction rate.

微波遥感产品对南极普里兹湾海冰密集度准确性的评估

基于两种船测数据集,本文采用点对点和Beitsch共定位比较法,对被动微波遥感观测海冰密集度产品在南极普里兹湾区域适用性展开了一系列评估。首先,根据2012年—2021年中国第29、31、37次南极科考走航船测数据,依据SIC大小的不同,对8种遥感SIC产品进行了分类定量比较,结果表明NSIDC/NT2算法产品在各情况比较中均体现出最高相关性与最佳稳定性,在共定位比较结果中相关系数可达0.926,均方根差12%,平均偏差仅2%。其次,为弥补基于AMSR-2传感器系列产品历史数据缺乏难以分析长期变化的缺陷,本文同时应用1992年—2000年ASPeCt船测数据集,以相同的对比方式对4种遥感数据产品的季节循环和长期变化信号进行了评估。结果表明,该时间段反演准确度较2012年—2021年的个例比较结果有所降低,且反映出较大的季节差异,4种产品的偏差均出现从融冰期到结冰期的增长。该时间段内,基于SSM/I传感器的CDR与Bootstrap算法整体反演较好,相关系数均达到0.8以上,均方根差16%,偏差约为8%,但是在低SIC区域的反演仍然存在较大的偏差。本研究表明,目前微波遥感SIC产品在较小范围海区的精确度存在一定的不足,且随着SIC类型、季节、算法差异出现较大的波动。因此提高分辨率,尽量使用多源数据,结合冰况进行分类分析,对改善遥感SIC产品的准确性十分必要。