多源时序影像洞庭湖流域水体时空演变特征分析

湖泊作为重要的国土资源,研究湖泊水域的动态变化有利于区域水资源开发利用,以及为生态平衡稳定提供重要保障。本文基于Google Earth Engine平台,以1989—2022年多源遥感数据为数据源,在归一化差分水体指数(NDWI)、改进的归一化差分水体指数(MNDWI)、自动水提取指数(AWEI_(sh))及基于线性判别分析的水体指数(WI_(2015))4种目前常用的水体指数中,选取最优水体指数进行洞庭湖流域水体提取;结合流域内降水气温、人口密度及土地利用等多种数据,探究洞庭湖流域水体演变特征并进行驱动力分析。结果表明,1989—2022年,洞庭湖区丰、枯水期水体面积总体呈下降趋势,3大湖区均有不同程度的缩减,平均减少93.27和140.15 km^(2)。流域内湖泊面积是自然气候变化和人类活动共同影响作用的结果。其中,降水和气温是影响湖面积的重要自然因素,人口增加、围湖造田引起的土地利用类型转移是导致湖面积减少的人为因素。

青藏高原色林错流域区冰川消融对湖泊水量变化的影响

青藏高原大部分湖泊近年来持续扩张,湖泊水位和水量明显增加.冰川消融是流域水量平衡和水循环的重要影响因素,直接导致湖泊水量变化.由于缺乏大范围的冰川质量平衡观测结果,青藏高原冰川消融对湖泊水量变化的影响仍存在较大争议.本文选择青藏高原内流区的色林错流域区(水系编号5Z2)作为研究对象,利用SRTM DEM和TanDEM-X双站InSAR数据,精确估算该流域三个主要冰川区(普若岗日、格拉丹东和西念青唐古拉)2000—2012年的冰川质量平衡,依次为:-0.020±0.030、-0.128±0.049、-0.143±0.032m·w.e.·a^(-1).并据此采用面积加权法准确推估出5Z2流域的冰川质量变化为:-0.166±0.021Gt·a^(-1).综合ICESat和Cryosat-2卫星测高数据,计算该流域2003—2012年湖泊水量变化速率(3.006±0.202Gt·a^(-1)),并定量评估冰川质量变化对5Z2流域湖泊水量增加的贡献为:5.52%±1.07%,因此在青藏高原色林错流域区,冰川消融不是导致21世纪初期湖泊水位上升的主要因素.

Glacier mass balance in High Mountain Asia inferred from a GRACE release-6 gravity solution for the period 2002–2016

We provide estimates of glacier mass changes in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) area from April2002 to August 2016 by employing a new version of gravity solutions of the Gravity Recovery and ClimateExperiment (GRACE) twin-satellite mission. We find a total mass loss trend of the HMA glaciers at a rateof –22.17 (±1.96) Gt/a. The largest mass loss rates of –7.02 (±0.94) and –6.73 (±0.78) Gt/a are found forthe glaciers in Nyainqentanglha Mountains and Eastern Himalayas, respectively. Although most glaciers inthe HMA area show a mass loss, we find a small glacier mass gain of 1.19 (±0.55) and 0.77 (±0.37) Gt/a inKarakoram Mountains and Western Kunlun Mountains, respectively. There is also a nearly zero massbalance in Pamirs. Our estimates of glacier mass change trends confirm previous results from the analysisof altimetry data of the ICESat (ICE, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite) and ASTER (AdvancedSpaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) DEM (Digital Elevation Model) satellites inmost of the selected glacier areas. However, they largely differ to previous GRACE-based studies which weattribute to our different post-processing techniques of the newer GRACE data. In addition, we explicitlyshow regional mass change features for both the interannual glacier mass changes and the 14-a averagedseasonal glacier mass changes. These changes can be explained in parts by total net precipitation (netsnowfall and net rainfall) and net snowfall, but mostly by total net radiation energy when compared to datafrom the ERA5-Land meteorological reanalysis. Moreover, nearly all the non-trend interannual masschanges and most seasonal mass changes can be explained by the total net radiation energy data. The massloss trends could be partly related to a heat effect due to increased net rainfall in Tianshan Mountains, QilianMountains, Nyainqentanglha Mountains and Eastern Himalayas. Our new results for the glacier mass changein this study could help improve the understanding of glacier variation in the HMA area and contribute tothe study of global change. They could also serve the utilization of water resources there and in neighboringareas.

高亚洲及其邻区2003~2017年质量平衡的气候影响分析

利用重力恢复和气候实验(GRACE)数据获得高亚洲及其邻近地区的质量变化,可分析区域气候因素如印度季风、西风带和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)对结果的影响。然而,最近的研究发现,西风带的贡献小于厄尔尼诺,与传统研究结论不同。因此,利用2003-01~2017-06期间GRACE RL06的Mascon数据进行复经验正交函数(CEOF)分析。研究发现,前3个主要成分对研究区质量变化的贡献率分别为53%、27%和6%,与印度季风、西风带和ENSO指数的相关系数分别是0.92±0.16、0.70±0.15和0.42±0.15,说明在长达14 a的观测时间跨度内,印度季风、西风带和ENSO对研究区质量变化的贡献分别为53%、27%和6%,西风带是研究区质量变化的第2个影响因素,这支持了传统的研究结论;ENSO通过印度季风对某些区域(如帕米尔高原、喜马拉雅山脉和印度西北部)的质量变化产生影响;在印度西北部、喜马拉雅山脉和藏东南地区,由于印度季风的减弱及其相关的ENSO作用和西风带的加强,质量变化呈现下降趋势;在兴都库什、西昆仑和东昆仑地区,由于西风带的增强,质量变化呈上升的趋势;在帕米尔和天山地区,虽然受到较强西风带的影响,但由于同时受到印度季风和ENSO减弱以及气温上升趋势的影响,质量变化呈下降的趋势。

Water storage changes in North America retrieved from GRACE gravity and GPS data

As global warming continues,the monitoring of changes in terrestrial water storage becomes increasingly important since it plays a critical role in understanding global change and water resource management.In North America as elsewhere in the world,changes in water resources strongly impact agriculture and animal husbandry.From a combination of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment（GRACE） gravity and Global Positioning System（GPS） data,it is recently found that water storage from August,2002 to March,2011 recovered after the extreme Canadian Prairies drought between 1999 and 2005.In this paper,we use GRACE monthly gravity data of Release 5 to track the water storage change from August,2002 to June,2014.In Canadian Prairies and the Great Lakes areas,the total water storage is found to have increased during the last decade by a rate of 73.8 ± 14.5 Gt/a,which is larger than that found in the previous study due to the longer time span of GRACE observations used and the reduction of the leakage error.We also find a long term decrease of water storage at a rate of-12.0 ± 4.2 Gt/a in Ungava Peninsula,possibly due to permafrost degradation and less snow accumulation during the winter in the region.In addition,the effect of total mass gain in the surveyed area,on present-day sea level,amounts to-0.18 mm/a,and thus should be taken into account in studies of global sea level change.

山东省平邑县2008—2019年传染病发病趋势分析

目的了解平邑县传染病的流行特征及其变化规律,为提出更好的预防和控制策略提供依据。方法对“中国疾病预防控制信息系统”中2008—2019年传染病的相关数据进行流行病学描述性分析。结果2008—2019年平邑县共报告法定传染病26种32276例,平均发病率为284.18/10万;2008—2019年间,一直居发病前5位的病种分别为肺结核、乙型肝炎、手足口病;2008—2019年间,乙类传染病主要以呼吸道传染病和血源及性传播传染病为主,所占比重分别为43.52%和51.15%;2008—2019年间,累计发病数最多的是第三季度(7—9月,9355例)和第二季度(4—6月,9099例);结论平邑县在2008—2019年间传染病发病情况总体上呈现上升趋势,传染病疾病谱发生变化,应注意适时调整防控策略,力求降低高发病种的发病率,预防传染病的暴发流行。

Influences of crustal thickening in the Tibetan Plateau on loading modeling and inversion associated with water storage variation

We use the average crustal structure of the CRUST1.0 model for the Tibetan Plateau to establish a realistic earth model termed as TC1 P, and data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System(GLDAS) hydrology model and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE) data, to generate the hydrology signals assumed in this study. Modeling of surface radial displacements and gravity variation is performed using both TC1 P and the global Preliminary Reference Earth Model(PREM). Furthermore, inversions of the hydrology signals based on simulated Global Positioning System(GPS) and GRACE data are performed using PREM. Results show that crust in TC1 P is harder and softer than that in PREM above and below a depth of 15 km, respectively, causing larger differences in the computed load Love numbers and loading Green’s functions. When annual hydrology signals are assumed,the differences of the radial displacements are found to be as large as approximately0.6 mm for the truncated degree of 180; while for hydrology-trend signals the differences are very small. When annual hydrology signals and the trends are assumed, the differences in the surface gravity variation are very small. It is considered that TC1 P can be used to efficiently remove the hydrological effects on the monitoring of crustal movement. It was also found that when PREM is used inappropriately, the inversion of the hydrology signals from simulated annual GPS signals can only recover approximately 88.0% of the annual hydrology signals for the truncated degree of 180, and the inversion of hydrology signals from the simulated trend GPS signals can recover approximately 92.5% for the truncated degree of 90. However, when using the simulated GRACE data, it is possible to recover almost 100%. Therefore, in future, the TC1 P model can be used in the inversions ofhydrology signals based on GPS network data. PREM is also valid for use with inversions of hydrology signals from GRACE data at resolutions of approximately 220 km and larger.

浅谈高校教学与科研的融合发展

高等院校普遍存在教学和科研严重失衡的问题,该问题一直困扰着大多数高校教师。教学与科研的失衡不利于高校的生存与发展,以及高校教师自身的职业发展。文章纠正了“教学与科研不可兼容”的错误认识,阐述了教学和科研融合发展带来的相互促进效应,为广大高校教师提供有益参考,对实现高校人才培养和科学研究两大职能具有重要意义。

不同模型的地表质量异常一阶项、二阶项估计

为了合理补充重力场恢复与气候试验卫星(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment,GRACE)时变重力场的一阶斯托克斯系数(C10、C11、S11)和替换二阶斯托克斯系数(C20),介绍了相关GRACE-OBP算法及其改进的算法,比较了相应的Chamber Model和4个Sun Model的一阶系数及其计算的地表质量异常,同时比较了基于卫星激光测距观测的Cheng Model与4个Sun Model的C20及其地表质量异常。结果表明,GRACE-OBP算法的一阶系数、卫星激光测距观测的C20及其地表质量异常与改进的GRACE-OBP算法在趋势项上有很大差异,但周年项差异相对较小。利用不同截断阶数和不同机构的GRACE时变重力场模型,对其趋势项和周年项都有一定影响,且对趋势项影响更大。因此,在计算陆地水储量变化时,建议使用改进的GRACE-OBP算法的估计结果,使用较理想的、截断阶数较高的GRACE时变重力模型。