The change trends of air temperature,precipitation and evaporation from 1999 to 2008 shows that the climate in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau permafrost region had become warmer.The analysis of the systematic active-layer ...The change trends of air temperature,precipitation and evaporation from 1999 to 2008 shows that the climate in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau permafrost region had become warmer.The analysis of the systematic active-layer data monitoring network along the Qinghai-Tibet Highway indicated that the active-layer thickness had been increasing and the soil temperature was rising.The soil temperature was rising in winter but not at the end of spring or during the entire summer.With thickening and warming of the active layer,the liquid water content of the active layer had an obvious downward migration and liquid water content in the top horizons decreased,but in the deeper horizons it increased.展开更多
Soil temperature is a key variable in the control of underground hydro-thermal processes. To estimate soil temperature more accurately, this study proposed a solution method of the heat conduction equation of soil tem...Soil temperature is a key variable in the control of underground hydro-thermal processes. To estimate soil temperature more accurately, this study proposed a solution method of the heat conduction equation of soil temperature （improved heat conduction model） by applying boundary conditions that incorporate the annual and diurnal variations of soil surface temperature and the temporal variation of daily temperature amplitude, as well as the temperature difference between two soil layers in the Tanggula observation site of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China. We employed both the improved heat conduction model and the classical heat conduction model to fit soil temperature by using the 5 cm soil layer as the upper boundary for soil depth. The results indicated that the daily soil temperature amplitude can be better described by the sinusoidal function in the improved model, which then yielded more accurate soil temperature simulating effect at the depth of 5 cm. The simulated soil temperature values generated by the improved model and classical heat conduction model were then compared to the observed soil temperature values at different soil depths. Statistical analyses of the root mean square error （RMSE）, the normalized standard error （NSEE） and the bias demonstrated that the improved model showed higher accuracy, and the average values of RMSE, bias and NSEE at the soil depth of 10-105 cm were 1.41℃, 1.15℃ and 22.40%, respectively. These results indicated that the improved heat conduction model can better estimate soil temperature profiles compared to the traditional model.展开更多
Water and heat dynamics in the active layer at a monitoring site in the Tanggula Mountains, located in the permafrost region of the Qinghai-Xizang(Tibet) Plateau(QXP), were studied using the physical-process-based COU...Water and heat dynamics in the active layer at a monitoring site in the Tanggula Mountains, located in the permafrost region of the Qinghai-Xizang(Tibet) Plateau(QXP), were studied using the physical-process-based COUPMODEL model, including the interaction between soil temperature and moisture under freeze-thaw cycles. Meteorological, ground temperature and moisture data from different depths within the active layer were used to calibrate and validate the model. The results indicate that the calibrated model satisfactorily simulates the soil temperatures from the top to the bottom of the soil layers as well as the moisture content of the active layer in permafrost regions. The simulated soil heat flux at depths of 0 to 20 cm was consistent with the monitoring data, and the simulations of the radiation balance components were reasonable. Energy consumed for phase change was estimated from the simulated ice content during the freeze/thaw processes from 2007 to 2008. Using this model, the active layer thickness and the energy consumed for phase change were predicted for future climate warming scenarios. The model predicts an increase of the active layer thickness from the current 330 cm to approximately 350–390 cm as a result of a 1–2°C warming. However, the effect active layer thickness of more precipitation is limited when the precipitation is increased by 20%–50%. The COUPMODEL provides a useful tool for predicting and understanding the fate of permafrost in the QXP under a warming climate.展开更多
基金supported by a grant from the National Program on Key Basic Research Project(973 Program,Grant No. 2010CB951404)the Chinese National Science Foundation (Grant Nos.40830533,40901042 and 40701029)the State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering (Grant No. SKLFSE200805)
文摘The change trends of air temperature,precipitation and evaporation from 1999 to 2008 shows that the climate in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau permafrost region had become warmer.The analysis of the systematic active-layer data monitoring network along the Qinghai-Tibet Highway indicated that the active-layer thickness had been increasing and the soil temperature was rising.The soil temperature was rising in winter but not at the end of spring or during the entire summer.With thickening and warming of the active layer,the liquid water content of the active layer had an obvious downward migration and liquid water content in the top horizons decreased,but in the deeper horizons it increased.
基金financially supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(2013CBA01803)the key project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(KJZD-EW-G03-02)+4 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(4127108141271086)the One Hundred Talent Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(51Y551831)the Natural Science Foundation of Gansu Province(1308RJZA309)the support of the West Light Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
文摘Soil temperature is a key variable in the control of underground hydro-thermal processes. To estimate soil temperature more accurately, this study proposed a solution method of the heat conduction equation of soil temperature （improved heat conduction model） by applying boundary conditions that incorporate the annual and diurnal variations of soil surface temperature and the temporal variation of daily temperature amplitude, as well as the temperature difference between two soil layers in the Tanggula observation site of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China. We employed both the improved heat conduction model and the classical heat conduction model to fit soil temperature by using the 5 cm soil layer as the upper boundary for soil depth. The results indicated that the daily soil temperature amplitude can be better described by the sinusoidal function in the improved model, which then yielded more accurate soil temperature simulating effect at the depth of 5 cm. The simulated soil temperature values generated by the improved model and classical heat conduction model were then compared to the observed soil temperature values at different soil depths. Statistical analyses of the root mean square error （RMSE）, the normalized standard error （NSEE） and the bias demonstrated that the improved model showed higher accuracy, and the average values of RMSE, bias and NSEE at the soil depth of 10-105 cm were 1.41℃, 1.15℃ and 22.40%, respectively. These results indicated that the improved heat conduction model can better estimate soil temperature profiles compared to the traditional model.
基金financially supported by the National Major Scientific Project of China(Grant No.2013CBA01803)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41271081+1 种基金41271086)the Foundation of One Hundred Person Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.51Y551831)
文摘Water and heat dynamics in the active layer at a monitoring site in the Tanggula Mountains, located in the permafrost region of the Qinghai-Xizang(Tibet) Plateau(QXP), were studied using the physical-process-based COUPMODEL model, including the interaction between soil temperature and moisture under freeze-thaw cycles. Meteorological, ground temperature and moisture data from different depths within the active layer were used to calibrate and validate the model. The results indicate that the calibrated model satisfactorily simulates the soil temperatures from the top to the bottom of the soil layers as well as the moisture content of the active layer in permafrost regions. The simulated soil heat flux at depths of 0 to 20 cm was consistent with the monitoring data, and the simulations of the radiation balance components were reasonable. Energy consumed for phase change was estimated from the simulated ice content during the freeze/thaw processes from 2007 to 2008. Using this model, the active layer thickness and the energy consumed for phase change were predicted for future climate warming scenarios. The model predicts an increase of the active layer thickness from the current 330 cm to approximately 350–390 cm as a result of a 1–2°C warming. However, the effect active layer thickness of more precipitation is limited when the precipitation is increased by 20%–50%. The COUPMODEL provides a useful tool for predicting and understanding the fate of permafrost in the QXP under a warming climate.
