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基于经验模型的长江口南支上段压咸临界流量 被引量:11
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作者 严鑫 孙昭华 +1 位作者 谢翠松 夏军强 《地理学报》 EI CSSCI CSCD 北大核心 2019年第5期935-947,共13页
河口区域盐水入侵,威胁三角洲地区城市淡水资源取用及生态环境安全,合理确定压咸临界径流流量,有助于进一步改进流域水库群的调度模式。以长江口南支为例,利用2009-2014年期间60余个潮周期氯度资料,综合分析多种盐度预测经验模型的有效... 河口区域盐水入侵,威胁三角洲地区城市淡水资源取用及生态环境安全,合理确定压咸临界径流流量,有助于进一步改进流域水库群的调度模式。以长江口南支为例,利用2009-2014年期间60余个潮周期氯度资料,综合分析多种盐度预测经验模型的有效性,确定了抑制咸潮入侵的临界径流流量。结果表明:①咸潮入侵强度随径流与潮差组合而不同,长江口径流流量小于30000 m^3/s时可发生盐度超标现象,69%的盐度超标天数发生在流量小于15000 m^3/s时期,当径流量小于12000 m^3/s时盐度超标几率达65%;②盐度与潮差之间为指数型曲线关系,潮差总体呈半月周期变化,根据潮差累积频率分布得到平均意义上"连续10 d盐度超标"临界条件对应的青龙港潮差约为2.7 m,由此推算得到临界大通流量略大于11000 m^3/s;③采用多种盐度预测经验模型进行计算,避免连续10 d盐度超标对应的临界径流流量区间为11000~12000 m^3/s,平均阈值取为11500 m^3/s;④在三峡及上游梯级水库联合运行后,2008-2015年长江入海最低径流流量有所增加,但仍低于压咸潮临界阈值,建议优化水库调度模式,控制长江入海径流最低流量在11500 m^3/s以上。 展开更多
关键词 压咸临界流量 径流和潮差 经验模型 长江口
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Analysis of critical river discharge for saltwater intrusion control in the upper South Branch of the Yangtze River Estuary 被引量:1
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作者 SUN Zhaohua FAN Jiewei +1 位作者 YAN Xin xie cuisong 《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 SCIE CSCD 2020年第5期823-842,共20页
Saltwater intrusion in the estuary area threatens the use of freshwater resources.If river discharge increases to a critical value,then saltwater intrusion frequency and salinity level decreases.In this study,long-ter... Saltwater intrusion in the estuary area threatens the use of freshwater resources.If river discharge increases to a critical value,then saltwater intrusion frequency and salinity level decreases.In this study,long-term river discharge and tidal range data in the Yangtze River Estuary(YRE)and salinity data obtained in the upper South Branch of the YRE were used to analyze the characteristics of different variables and the basic law of their interactions.Two methods,namely,the material analysis method and empirical models,were applied to determine the critical river discharge for saltwater intrusion control.Results are as follows:(1)the salinity might exceed the drinking water standard of China when the river discharge was less than 30,000 m^3/s.Approximately 69%of salinity excessive days occurred when the river discharge was less than 15,000 m^3/s;(2)the tidal range in the YRE roughly varied in sinusoidal pattern with a 15-day cycle length.Exponential relationship existed between daily salinity(chlorinity)and daily mean tidal range.Combining these two features with the cumulative frequency statistics of tidal ranges,it was showed that notable saltwater intrusion occurred when the tidal range was more than 2.7 m at Qinglonggang station.Moreover,the critical discharge was found to be slightly higher than 11,000 m^3/s;(3)various of empirical models for salinity prediction could be chosen to calculate the critical discharge.The values obtained by different models were in the range of 11,000–12,000 m^3/s;(4)the proposed critical discharge to reduce notable saltwater intrusion was 11,500 m^3/s.After the Three Gorges Reservoir operation,the minimum river discharge into the YRE in 2008–2017 was below the critical discharge,thereby suggesting an increase in the minimum river discharge by reservoir regulation in drought periods. 展开更多
关键词 CRITICAL discharge saltwater INTRUSION CONTROL empirical model the YANGTZE River ESTUARY
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