Stochastic loss reserving using individual information model with over-dispersed Poisson

For stochastic loss reserving,we propose an individual information model(IIM)which accom-modates not only individual/micro data consisting of incurring times,reporting developments,settlement developments as well as payments of individual claims but also heterogeneity among policies.We give over-dispersed Poisson assumption about the moments of reporting developments and payments of every individual claims.Model estimation is conducted under quasi-likelihood theory.Analytic expressions are derived for the expectation and variance of outstanding liabilities,given historical observations.We utilise conditional mean square error of prediction(MSEP)to measure the accuracy of loss reserving and also theoretically prove that when risk portfolio size is large enough,IIM shows a higher prediction accuracy than individ-ual/micro data model(IDM)in predicting the outstanding liabilities,if the heterogeneity indeed influences claims developments and otherwise IIM is asymptotically equivalent to IDM.Some simulations are conducted to investigate the conditional MSEPs for IIM and IDM.A real data analysis is performed basing on real observations in health insurance.

Topic model for graph mining based on hierarchical Dirichlet process

In this paper,a nonparametric Bayesian graph topic model(GTM)based on hierarchical Dirichlet process(HDP)is proposed.The HDP makes the number of topics selected flexibly,which breaks the limitation that the number of topics need to be given in advance.Moreover,theGTMreleases the assumption of‘bag of words’and considers the graph structure of the text.The combination of HDP and GTM takes advantage of both which is named as HDP–GTM.The variational inference algorithm is used for the posterior inference and the convergence of the algorithm is analysed.We apply the proposed model in text categorisation,comparing to three related topic models,latent Dirichlet allocation(LDA),GTM and HDP.