Numerical simulation of fracturing and imbibition in shale oil horizontal wells

The shale oil reservoir is characterized by tight lithology and ultra-low permeability,and its efficient exploitation requires the technology of multi-stage and multi-cluster hydraulic fracturing in horizontal wells and shut-in imbibition.After multi-stage and multi-cluster hydraulic fracturing,a complex fracture network is formed,and a large volume of frac fluid is stored within the fracture network.During shut-in,imbibition and exchange between oil and water occurs under the action of the capillary force and osmotic pressure,and the formation pressure builds up in the shale reservoir.On basis of the characteristics of shale oil reservoir,we establish a model of imbibition during fracturing injection and shut-in by coupling oilewater two-phase flow and saline ion diffusion in the hydraulic fractures(HFs)network,natural fractures(NFs)and matrix system under the action of capillary force and osmotic pressure.The DFN method and the multiple continuum method are introduced to characterize fluid flow between the HF and the NF and that between the NF and the matrix respectively,which avoids the problem of a large amount of computation of seepage within the complex fracture.Then,the discrete fracture network(DFN)model and the multiple continuum model are solved with the finite element method,and it is verified in flow field,saturation field and concentration field that the models are accurate and reliable.We propose the imbibition exchange volume for quantitative evaluation of the imbibition degree and a method of calculating the imbibition exchange volume.Simulation of oil and water flow in the fracturing and shut-in stages is performed based on these models.It is found that imbibition in the shale reservoir is driven by mechanisms of pressure difference,capillary force and osmotic pressure.The osmotic pressure and capillary force only cause an increase in the imbibition rate and a reduction in the imbibition equilibrium time and do not lead to variation in the peak of imbibition exchange volume.The imbibition equilibrium time under the action of the capillary force and osmotic pressure is reduced from 150 to 45 d compared with that under the action of the pressure difference.If imbibition equilibrium is reached,low initial water saturation,strong rock compressibility,high formation water salinity and high matrix permeability enhance imbibition and exchange of oil and water in the reservoir.The leakoff volume of frac fluid is generally larger than the imbibition exchanged volume.Leakoff equilibrium occurs slightly earlier than imbibition equilibrium.The imbibition equilibrium time is mainly affected by reservoir permeability and NF density.The number of interconnected fractures mainly affects the frac fluid volume within the hydraulic fracture in the fracturing process.The stimulated reservoir volume(SRV)mainly affects frac fluid imbibition exchange in the shut-in process.

某市暴雨洪涝对细菌性痢疾发病影响的时间序列分析

目的定量评价广西省柳州市暴雨洪涝对细菌性痢疾发病的健康效应。方法运用时间序列分析,控制长期趋势、季节趋势、滞后效应和气象因素等混杂因素的基础上,采用季节性自回归移动平均模型(SARIMA)定量分析洪水历时与居民细菌痢疾发病的关系。结果研究发现发生洪水月份的细菌性痢疾发病率高于对照月份。SARIMA回归分析显示月洪水历时与细菌性痢疾月罹患率呈负相关,月洪水历时天数每增加1 d,其细菌性痢疾罹患率下降7.7%~8.0%。结论暴雨洪涝对细菌性痢疾的发病产生明显影响,特别是历时短的严重洪水相比历时长的一般洪水造成细菌性痢疾发病风险更高。