Evaluation and Comparison of Different Machine Learning Methods to Predict Outcome of Tuberculosis Treatment Course

Tuberculosis treatment course completion is crucial to protect patients against prolonged infectiousness, relapse, lengthened and more expensive therapy due to multidrug resistance TB. Up to 50% of all patients do not complete treatment course. To solve this problem, TB treatment with patient supervision and support as an element of the “global plan to stop TB” was considered by the World Health Organization. The plan may require a model to predict the outcome of DOTS therapy;then, this tool may be used to determine how intensive the level of providing services and supports should be. This work applied and compared machine learning techniques initially to predict the outcome of TB therapy. After feature analysis, models by six algorithms including decision tree (DT), artificial neural network (ANN), logistic regression (LR), radial basis function (RBF), Bayesian networks (BN), and support vector machine (SVM) developed and validated. Data of training (N = 4515) and testing (N = 1935) sets were applied and models evaluated by prediction accuracy, F-measure and recall. Seventeen significantly correlated features were identified (P CI = 0.001 - 0.007);DT (C 4.5) was found to be the best algorithm with %74.21 prediction accuracy in comparing with ANN, BN, LR, RBF, and SVM with 62.06%, 57.88%, 57.31%, 53.74%, and 51.36% respectively. Data and distribution may create the opportunity for DT out performance. The predicted class for each TB case might be useful for improving the quality of care through making patients’ supervision and support more case—sensitive in order to enhance the quality of DOTS therapy.

Improvement the Accuracy of Six Applied Classification Algorithms through Integrated Supervised and Unsupervised Learning Approach

We have presented an integrated approach based on supervised and unsupervised learning tech- nique to improve the accuracy of six predictive models. They are developed to predict outcome of tuberculosis treatment course and their accuracy needs to be improved as they are not precise as much as necessary. The integrated supervised and unsupervised learning method (ISULM) has been proposed as a new way to improve model accuracy. The dataset of 6450 Iranian TB patients under DOTS therapy was applied to initially select the significant predictors and then develop six predictive models using decision tree, Bayesian network, logistic regression, multilayer perceptron, radial basis function, and support vector machine algorithms. Developed models have integrated with k-mean clustering analysis to calculate more accurate predicted outcome of tuberculosis treatment course. Obtained results, then, have been evaluated to compare prediction accuracy before and after ISULM application. Recall, Precision, F-measure, and ROC area are other criteria used to assess the models validity as well as change percentage to show how different are models before and after ISULM. ISULM led to improve the prediction accuracy for all applied classifiers ranging between 4% and 10%. The most and least improvement for prediction accuracy were shown by logistic regression and support vector machine respectively. Pre-learning by k- mean clustering to relocate the objects and put similar cases in the same group can improve the classification accuracy in the process of integrating supervised and unsupervised learning.

Optimal dynamic pricing for smart grid having mixed customers with and without smart meters

This paper investigates an optimal day-ahead dynamic pricing problem in an electricity market with one electricity retailer and multiple customers. The main objective of this paper is to support the retailer to make the best day-ahead dynamic pricing decision, which maximizes its profit under the realistic assumption that mixed types of customers coexist in the electricity market where some customers have installed smart meters with the embedded home energy management system in their home whereas other customers have not installed smart meters. To this end, we propose a hybrid demand modelling framework which firstly uses an optimal energy management algorithm with bill minimization to model the behavior of customers with smart meters and secondly use a data-driven demand modelling method to model the behavior of customers without smart meters. Such a hybrid demand model can not only schedule usages of home appliances to the interests of customers with smart meters but also be used to understand electricity usage behaviors of customers without smart meters. Based on the established hybrid demand model for all customers, a profit maximization algorithm is developed to achieve optimal prices for the retailer under relevant market constraints. Under the condition of no growth of the revenue(i.e. no increase of total bill from all customers), simulation results indicate our optimization algorithm can improve the profit for around 5% on average.