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Assessment of Crop Yield in China Simulated by Thirteen Global Gridded Crop Models
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作者 Dezhen YIN Fang LI +3 位作者 Yaqiong LU xiaodong zeng Zhongda LIN Yanqing ZHOU 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2024年第3期420-434,共15页
Global gridded crop models(GGCMs) have been broadly applied to assess the impacts of climate and environmental change and adaptation on agricultural production. China is a major grain producing country, but thus far o... Global gridded crop models(GGCMs) have been broadly applied to assess the impacts of climate and environmental change and adaptation on agricultural production. China is a major grain producing country, but thus far only a few studies have assessed the performance of GGCMs in China, and these studies mainly focused on the average and interannual variability of national and regional yields. Here, a systematic national-and provincial-scale evaluation of the simulations by13 GGCMs [12 from the GGCM Intercomparison(GGCMI) project, phase 1, and CLM5-crop] of the yields of four crops(wheat, maize, rice, and soybean) in China during 1980–2009 was carried out through comparison with crop yield statistics collected from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Results showed that GGCMI models generally underestimate the national yield of rice but overestimate it for the other three crops, while CLM5-crop can reproduce the national yields of wheat, maize, and rice well. Most GGCMs struggle to simulate the spatial patterns of crop yields. In terms of temporal variability, GGCMI models generally fail to capture the observed significant increases, but some can skillfully simulate the interannual variability. Conversely, CLM5-crop can represent the increases in wheat, maize, and rice, but works less well in simulating the interannual variability. At least one model can skillfully reproduce the temporal variability of yields in the top-10 producing provinces in China, albeit with a few exceptions. This study, for the first time, provides a complete picture of GGCM performance in China, which is important for GGCM development and understanding the reliability and uncertainty of national-and provincial-scale crop yield prediction in China. 展开更多
关键词 global gridded crop model historical crop yield China multi-model evaluation
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CAS-ESM2.0 Successfully Reproduces Historical Atmospheric CO_(2) in a Coupled Carbon−Climate Simulation
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作者 Jiawen ZHU Juanxiong HE +6 位作者 Duoying JI Yangchun LI He ZHANG Minghua ZHANG xiaodong zeng Kece FEI Jiangbo JIN 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2024年第4期572-580,共9页
The atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO_(2))concentration has been increasing rapidly since the Industrial Revolution,which has led to unequivocal global warming and crucial environmental change.It is extremely important to... The atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO_(2))concentration has been increasing rapidly since the Industrial Revolution,which has led to unequivocal global warming and crucial environmental change.It is extremely important to investigate the interactions among atmospheric CO_(2),the physical climate system,and the carbon cycle of the underlying surface for a better understanding of the Earth system.Earth system models are widely used to investigate these interactions via coupled carbon-climate simulations.The Chinese Academy of Sciences Earth System Model version 2(CAS-ESM2.0)has successfully fixed a two-way coupling of atmospheric CO_(2)with the climate and carbon cycle on land and in the ocean.Using CAS-ESM2.0,we conducted a coupled carbon-climate simulation by following the CMIP6 proposal of a historical emissions-driven experiment.This paper examines the modeled CO_(2)by comparison with observed CO_(2)at the sites of Mauna Loa and Barrow,and the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite(GOSAT)CO_(2)product.The results showed that CAS-ESM2.0 agrees very well with observations in reproducing the increasing trend of annual CO_(2)during the period 1850-2014,and in capturing the seasonal cycle of CO_(2)at the two baseline sites,as well as over northern high latitudes.These agreements illustrate a good ability of CAS-ESM2.0 in simulating carbon-climate interactions,even though uncertainties remain in the processes involved.This paper reports an important stage of the development of CAS-ESM with the coupling of carbon and climate,which will provide significant scientific support for climate research and China’s goal of carbon neutrality. 展开更多
关键词 CAS-ESM atmospheric CO_(2) coupled carbon-climate simulation emissions-driven CMIP6 experiment
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Trend in seasonal amplitude of northern net ecosystem production:Simulated results from IAP DGVM in CAS-ESM2
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作者 Jiawen Zhu xiaodong zeng 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CSCD 2024年第2期45-51,共7页
北方陆地净生态系统生产力(NEP)具有明显的季节变化特征,这是大气CO_(2)季节变化的关键驱动.研究这些碳循环过程并理解潜在的驱动因素是气候研究的一个关键问题.本文利用第二代中国科学院地球系统模式(CAS-ESM2)中的全球植被动态模型(IA... 北方陆地净生态系统生产力(NEP)具有明显的季节变化特征,这是大气CO_(2)季节变化的关键驱动.研究这些碳循环过程并理解潜在的驱动因素是气候研究的一个关键问题.本文利用第二代中国科学院地球系统模式(CAS-ESM2)中的全球植被动态模型(IAPDGVM),研究了1990-2014年北方NEP(40°-90°N)的季节振幅及其变化趋势.在初始化试验的基础上,本文开展了一个控制试验来评估模拟的北方NEP季节幅度的变化趋势,同时开展了三个敏感性试验来研究气候和大气CO_(2)的贡献.结果表明:1990-2014年,模拟的北方NEP季节振幅显著增加,趋势为9.69万吨碳/月/年,这主要是由于最大NEP增加所致.当分别排除CO_(2)施肥效应和气候效应时,上述增加趋势大大减弱.这些显著的减少表明大气CO_(2)和气候变化对北方NEP的季节性振幅有重要影响.尽管模式存在不确定性,但这些结果有利于进一步提升IAPDGVM对陆地碳循环的精确模拟,也为CAS-ESM研究碳-气候相互作用的应用提供了重要参考. 展开更多
关键词 净生态系统生产力 北方陆地生态系统 季节变化幅度 CO_(2)施肥效应 气候效应
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Changes in the seasonal amplitude of northern ecosystem productivity under future global warming 被引量:1
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作者 Jiawen Zhu Xiaofei Gao xiaodong zeng 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CSCD 2023年第3期1-6,共6页
观测显示过去几十年北半球大气二氧化碳季节幅度大幅增加,这主要是由北半球陆地净生态系统生产力季节幅度的增加所致。但是,因为气候变化和植被动态的不确定性,未来陆地净生态系统生产力季节幅度的变化还很不清楚.本工作利用全球植被动... 观测显示过去几十年北半球大气二氧化碳季节幅度大幅增加,这主要是由北半球陆地净生态系统生产力季节幅度的增加所致。但是,因为气候变化和植被动态的不确定性,未来陆地净生态系统生产力季节幅度的变化还很不清楚.本工作利用全球植被动力学模式研究了全球变暖背景下北纬45°以北陆地净生态系统生产力季节幅度的变化.作者做了两大类试验:当代试验(1981-2000)和CMIP5RCP8.5变暖情景驱动的未来试验(2081-2100).结果显示,在RCP8.5变暖情景下北半球中高纬陆地净生态系统生产力季节幅度整体增加,这是因为陆地净生态系统生产力的月最大值增加且月最小值减小.最大(最小)陆地净生态系统生产力的增加(减小)是由于总初级生产力的增加强(弱)于生态系统总呼吸,总初级生产力和生态系统总呼吸的变化都主要受地表气温和植被动态的驱动.本工作强调了植被动态对北半球中高纬陆地生态系统碳循环的关键调制作用,也强调了在地球系统模式中包含全球植被动力学模式的重要性。 展开更多
关键词 陆地生态系统碳循环 全球变暖 植被动态 碳循环的季节变化
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Evaluation of the New Dynamic Global Vegetation Model in CAS-ESM 被引量:8
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作者 Jiawen ZHU xiaodong zeng +6 位作者 Minghua ZHANG Yongjiu DAI Duoying JI Fang LI Qian ZHANG He ZHANG Xiang SONG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2018年第6期659-670,共12页
In the past several decades, dynamic global vegetation models(DGVMs) have been the most widely used and appropriate tool at the global scale to investigate vegetation-climate interactions. At the Institute of Atmosphe... In the past several decades, dynamic global vegetation models(DGVMs) have been the most widely used and appropriate tool at the global scale to investigate vegetation-climate interactions. At the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, a new version of DGVM(IAP-DGVM) has been developed and coupled to the Common Land Model(CoLM) within the framework of the Chinese Academy of Sciences' Earth System Model(CAS-ESM). This work reports the performance of IAP-DGVM through comparisons with that of the default DGVM of CoLM(CoLM-DGVM) and observations. With respect to CoLMDGVM, IAP-DGVM simulated fewer tropical trees, more "needleleaf evergreen boreal tree" and "broadleaf deciduous boreal shrub", and a better representation of grasses. These contributed to a more realistic vegetation distribution in IAP-DGVM,including spatial patterns, total areas, and compositions. Moreover, IAP-DGVM also produced more accurate carbon fluxes than CoLM-DGVM when compared with observational estimates. Gross primary productivity and net primary production in IAP-DGVM were in better agreement with observations than those of CoLM-DGVM, and the tropical pattern of fire carbon emissions in IAP-DGVM was much more consistent with the observation than that in CoLM-DGVM. The leaf area index simulated by IAP-DGVM was closer to the observation than that of CoLM-DGVM; however, both simulated values about twice as large as in the observation. This evaluation provides valuable information for the application of CAS-ESM, as well as for other model communities in terms of a comparative benchmark. 展开更多
关键词 植被模型 评估 生产率 相互作用 地球系统 植被分布 现实主义 空间模式
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Development of an Establishment Scheme for a DGVM 被引量:2
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作者 Xiang SONG xiaodong zeng +1 位作者 Jiawen ZHU Pu SHAO 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2016年第7期829-840,共12页
Environmental changes are expected to shift the distribution and abundance of vegetation by determining seedling establishment and success. However, most current ecosystem models only focus on the impacts of abiotic f... Environmental changes are expected to shift the distribution and abundance of vegetation by determining seedling establishment and success. However, most current ecosystem models only focus on the impacts of abiotic factors on biogeophysics(e.g., global distribution, etc.), ignoring their roles in the population dynamics(e.g., seedling establishment rate, mortality rate, etc.) of ecological communities. Such neglect may lead to biases in ecosystem population dynamics(such as changes in population density for woody species in forest ecosystems) and characteristics. In the present study, a new establishment scheme for introducing soil water as a function rather than a threshold was developed and validated, using version 1.0 of the IAP-DGVM as a test bed. The results showed that soil water in the establishment scheme had a remarkable influence on forest transition zones. Compared with the original scheme, the new scheme significantly improved simulations of tree population density, especially in the peripheral areas of forests and transition zones. Consequently, biases in forest fractional coverage were reduced in approximately 78.8% of the global grid cells. The global simulated areas of tree, shrub, grass and bare soil performed better, where the relative biases were reduced from 34.3% to 4.8%, from 27.6% to 13.1%, from 55.2% to 9.2%, and from 37.6% to 3.6%, respectively. Furthermore, the new scheme had more reasonable dependencies of plant functional types(PFTs) on mean annual precipitation, and described the correct dominant PFTs in the tropical rainforest peripheral areas of the Amazon and central Africa. 展开更多
关键词 立方 森林生态系统 生态系统模型 植物功能型 土壤水分 非生物因素 人口动力学 环境变化
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Changes in Global Vegetation Distribution and Carbon Fluxes in Response to Global Warming:Simulated Results from IAP-DGVM in CAS-ESM2
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作者 Xiaofei GAO Jiawen ZHU +4 位作者 xiaodong zeng Minghua ZHANG Yongjiu DAI Duoying JI He ZHANG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2022年第8期1285-1298,I0002-I0010,共23页
Terrestrial ecosystems are an important part of Earth systems,and they are undergoing remarkable changes in response to global warming.This study investigates the response of the terrestrial vegetation distribution an... Terrestrial ecosystems are an important part of Earth systems,and they are undergoing remarkable changes in response to global warming.This study investigates the response of the terrestrial vegetation distribution and carbon fluxes to global warming by using the new dynamic global vegetation model in the second version of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Earth System Model(CAS-ESM2).We conducted two sets of simulations,a present-day simulation and a future simulation,which were forced by the present-day climate during 1981-2000 and the future climate during 2081-2100,respectively,as derived from RCP8.5 outputs in CMIP5.CO_(2)concentration is kept constant in all simulations to isolate CO_(2)-fertilization effects.The results show an overall increase in vegetation coverage in response to global warming,which is the net result of the greening in the mid-high latitudes and the browning in the tropics.The results also show an enhancement in carbon fluxes in response to global warming,including gross primary productivity,net primary productivity,and autotrophic respiration.We found that the changes in vegetation coverage were significantly correlated with changes in surface air temperature,reflecting the dominant role of temperature,while the changes in carbon fluxes were caused by the combined effects of leaf area index,temperature,and precipitation.This study applies the CAS-ESM2 to investigate the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate warming.Even though the interpretation of the results is limited by isolating CO_(2)-fertilization effects,this application is still beneficial for adding to our understanding of vegetation processes and to further improve upon model parameterizations. 展开更多
关键词 global warming vegetation distribution carbon flux leaf area index surface air temperature
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植物个体资源竞争与群体结构特性分析
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作者 曾晓东 宋翔 高小斐 《科学通报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2023年第21期2836-2848,共13页
资源竞争是形成不同尺度生态结构最重要的驱动因素.植物生态系统资源竞争的自组织过程具有3个显著特点,即群体具有中等数目的个体数、个体差异巨大、个体间仅具有复杂的近程相互作用.本文从生态系统资源竞争与群体结构的一般性问题出发... 资源竞争是形成不同尺度生态结构最重要的驱动因素.植物生态系统资源竞争的自组织过程具有3个显著特点,即群体具有中等数目的个体数、个体差异巨大、个体间仅具有复杂的近程相互作用.本文从生态系统资源竞争与群体结构的一般性问题出发,建立可显式描述植物个体间资源竞争的生态动力学模型,并依据资源竞争的数学特性,按照完全非对称性竞争和完全对称性竞争两种极端形式,分别设计数值模拟试验,并与无竞争试验对比,分析不同竞争形式、不同群体竞争度下个体资源分配及群体结构特征的共性和差异.结果表明,随着竞争度上升,两种竞争形式下的生态系统结构特征(不同高度的顶层冠层覆盖度)均偏离无竞争情况对应的分布,表现为高大冠层比重减少,而低矮冠层比重增加,顶层冠层平均高度下降,不同于经典竞争模型的结论.在完全非对称性竞争情况下,个体差异明显上升,如中等高度个体的平均竞争度以及低矮个体的平均死亡率迅速增加,植被覆盖区域顶层冠层覆盖度曲线半高宽逐渐增大,顶层冠层高度标准差增加,但高大冠层占模拟区域的覆盖度逐渐趋于稳定.而在完全对称性竞争情况下,个体差异明显低于完全非对称性竞争情况,所有高度的平均竞争度和平均死亡率均上升,顶层冠层覆盖度曲线逐渐向低高度方向偏移,高大冠层占模拟区域的覆盖度也逐渐降低.本文提出了一个研究群体结构随竞争度变化的理论框架,可为生态系统复杂资源竞争研究提供重要的数学理论基础,并应用于地球系统模式的陆表过程模式及植被动力学模式的多尺度建模框架设计. 展开更多
关键词 资源竞争 群体结构 个体差异 自组织 生态动力学建模
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20世纪80年代和90年代中国城镇家庭的儿童照顾变迁及其启示
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作者 范昕 龙怡 曾晓东 《中国公共政策评论》 2023年第1期70-90,共21页
20世纪八九十年代是我国社会经济转型的关键时期,也是理解当前我国普遍存在的育儿焦虑和低生育意愿的重要切入口。本文通过对16个个案的质性研究发现,20世纪80年代城镇家庭更多通过单位获得多种形式的照顾资源,而90年代城镇家庭则更多... 20世纪八九十年代是我国社会经济转型的关键时期,也是理解当前我国普遍存在的育儿焦虑和低生育意愿的重要切入口。本文通过对16个个案的质性研究发现,20世纪80年代城镇家庭更多通过单位获得多种形式的照顾资源,而90年代城镇家庭则更多依靠扩展家庭实现儿童照顾功能。这一转变既受到集体主义向市场化转型的制度变迁、现代化文化模式变迁和家庭结构变迁等结构性因素的形塑,也受到家庭微观策略的影响。本文对我国本土儿童照顾经验的实证研究有利于丰富我们对公共儿童照顾责任分担的认识,对解决当前的“儿童照顾危机”有借鉴意义。 展开更多
关键词 儿童照顾 制度转型 现代化文化模式 家庭结构变迁
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Novel NIR-Ⅱfluorescent probes for biliary atresia imaging
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作者 xiaodong zeng Yuqin Liao +7 位作者 Xue Qiao Ke Liang Qiusi Luo Mingbo Deng Yishen Liu Weijing Zhang Xuechuan Hong Yuling Xiao 《Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica B》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2023年第11期4578-4590,共13页
Biliary atresia is a rare infant disease that predisposes patients to liver transplantation and death if not treated in time.However,early diagnosis is challenging because the clinical manifestations and laboratory te... Biliary atresia is a rare infant disease that predisposes patients to liver transplantation and death if not treated in time.However,early diagnosis is challenging because the clinical manifestations and laboratory tests of biliary atresia overlap with other cholestatic diseases.Therefore,it is very important to develop a simple,safe and reliable method for the early diagnosis of biliary atresia.Herein,a novel NIR-Ⅱfluorescence probe,HZL2,with high quantum yield,excellent biocompatibility,low cytotoxicity and rapid excretion through the liver and gallbladder was developed based on the oil/water partition coefficient and permeability.A simple fecal sample after injection of HZL2 can be used to efficiently identify the success of the mouse model of biliary atresia for the first time,allowing for an early diagnosis of the disease.This study not only developed a simple and safe method for the early diagnosis of biliary atresia with great potential in clinical translation but also provides a research tool for the development of pathogenesis and therapeutic medicines for biliary atresia. 展开更多
关键词 Biliary atresia Fluorescence imaging Second near-infrared window Early diagnosis Hepatobiliary excretion
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Tumor-homing peptide-based NIR-II probes for targeted spontaneous breast tumor imaging 被引量:6
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作者 Hui Zhou Shanshan Li +6 位作者 xiaodong zeng Mengxian Zhang Lin Tang Qianqian Li Deliang Chen Xianli Meng Xuechuan Hong 《Chinese Chemical Letters》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2020年第6期1382-1386,F0002,共6页
Fluorescence imaging in the second near-infrared window(NIR-Ⅱ,1000-1700 nm)is a promising modality for real-time imaging of cancer and image-guided surgery with superior in vivo optical properties.So far,very few NIR... Fluorescence imaging in the second near-infrared window(NIR-Ⅱ,1000-1700 nm)is a promising modality for real-time imaging of cancer and image-guided surgery with superior in vivo optical properties.So far,very few NIR-Ⅱfluorophores have been reported for in vivo biomedical imaging of chemically-induced spontaneous breast carcinoma.Herein,a NIR-Ⅱfluorescent probe CH1055-F3 with the nucleolin-targeted tumor-homing peptide F3 was demonstrated to prefe rentially accumulate in 4 T1 tumors.More importantly,CH1055-F3 exhibited specific NIR-Ⅱsignals with high spatial and temporal resolution,strong tumor uptake,and remarkable NIR-Ⅱimage-guided surgery in dimethylbenzanthracene(DMBA)-induced spontaneous breast tumor rats.This report presents the first tumor-homing peptide-based NIR-Ⅱprobe to diagnose transplantable and spontaneous breast tumors by the active targeting. 展开更多
关键词 NIR-Ⅱimaging F3 peptide Image-guided surgery Spontaneous breast carcinoma NIR-Ⅱprobes
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A novel small-molecule near-infrared II fluorescence probe for orthotopic osteosarcoma imaging 被引量:1
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作者 Jiacheng Lin Qianqian Li +9 位作者 xiaodong zeng Ziyang Chen Qihang Ding Yang Li Hui Zhou Xianli Meng Deliang Chen Zixin Deng Xuechuan Hong Yuling Xiao 《Science China Chemistry》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2020年第6期766-770,共5页
Osteosarcoma is the most common primary malignant tumor of bone,particularly among children and adolescents.Advances in imaging,surgical techniques,and implants have dramatically reduced the need for amputation in the... Osteosarcoma is the most common primary malignant tumor of bone,particularly among children and adolescents.Advances in imaging,surgical techniques,and implants have dramatically reduced the need for amputation in the past three decades.Recently,in vivo fluorescence imaging in the second near-infrared window(NIR-II,1,000–1,700 nm)shows impressive advantages of deeper tissue penetration and higher spatial resolution,which makes it a promising tool for the early diagnosis and post-operative observation of Osteosarcoma.To the best of our knowledge,this paper is the first time to develop a novel NIR-II fluorescence probe conjugated with an osteosarcoma targeted oligopeptide for molecular tumor imaging in a xenograft orthotopic osteosarcoma mouse model. 展开更多
关键词 NIR-II orthotopic osteosarcoma IMAGING
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