Satellite records show that the extent and thickness of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean have significantly decreased since the early 1970s.The prediction of sea ice is highly important,but accurate simulation of sea ice v...Satellite records show that the extent and thickness of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean have significantly decreased since the early 1970s.The prediction of sea ice is highly important,but accurate simulation of sea ice variations remains highly challenging.For improving model performance,sensitivity experiments were conducted using the coupled ocean and sea ice model(NEMO-LIM),and the simulation results were compared against satellite observations.Moreover,the contribution ratios of dynamic and thermodynamic processes to sea ice variations were analyzed.The results show that the performance of the model in reconstructing the spatial distribution of Arctic sea ice is highly sensitive to ice strength decay constant(C^(rhg)).By reducing the C^(rhg) constant,the sea ice compressive strength increases,leading to improved simulated sea ice states.The contribution of thermodynamic processes to sea ice melting was reduced due to less deformation and fracture of sea ice with increased compressive strength.Meanwhile,dynamic processes constrained more sea ice to the central Arctic Ocean and contributed to the increases in ice concentration,reducing the simulation bias in the central Arctic Ocean in summer.The root mean square error(RMSE)between modeled and the CryoSat-2/SMOS satellite observed ice thickness was reduced in the compressive strength-enhanced model solution.The ice thickness,especially of multiyear thick ice,was also reduced and matched with the satellite observation better in the freezing season.These provide an essential foundation on exploring the response of the marine ecosystem and biogeochemical cycling to sea ice changes.展开更多
The sea ice conditions in the Kara Sea have important impacts on Arctic shipping,oil and gas production,and marine environmental changes.In this study,sea ice coverage(C_(R))less than 30%is considered as open water,it...The sea ice conditions in the Kara Sea have important impacts on Arctic shipping,oil and gas production,and marine environmental changes.In this study,sea ice coverage(C_(R))less than 30%is considered as open water,its onset and end dates are defined as T_(open)and T_(close),respectively.The sea ice melt onset(T_(melt))is defined as the date when ice-sea freshwater flux initially changes from ice into the ocean.Satellite-based sea ice concentration(SIC)from 1989 to 2019 shows a negative correlation between T_(open)and T_(close)(r=-0.77,p<0.01)in the Kara Sea.This phenomenon is also obtained through analyzing the hindcast simulation from 1994 to 2015 by a coupled ocean and sea-ice model(NAPA1/4).The model results reveal that thermodynamics dominate the sea ice variations,and ice basal melt is greater than the ice surface melt.Heat budget estimation suggests that the heat flux is significant correlated with T_(open)(r=-0.95,p<0.01)during the melt period(the duration of multi-year averaged T_(melt)to T_(open))influenced by the sea ice conditions.Additionally,this heat flux is also suggested to dominate the interannual variation of the heat input during the whole heat absorption process(r=0.81,p<0.01).The more heat input during this process leads to later T_(close)(r=0.77,p<0.01).This is the physical basis of the negative correlation between T_(open)and T_(close).Therefore,the duration of open water can be predicted by T_(open)and thence support earlier planning of marine activities.展开更多
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41630969,41941013,41806225)the Tianjin Municipal Natural Science Foundation(No.20JCQNJC01290)。
文摘Satellite records show that the extent and thickness of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean have significantly decreased since the early 1970s.The prediction of sea ice is highly important,but accurate simulation of sea ice variations remains highly challenging.For improving model performance,sensitivity experiments were conducted using the coupled ocean and sea ice model(NEMO-LIM),and the simulation results were compared against satellite observations.Moreover,the contribution ratios of dynamic and thermodynamic processes to sea ice variations were analyzed.The results show that the performance of the model in reconstructing the spatial distribution of Arctic sea ice is highly sensitive to ice strength decay constant(C^(rhg)).By reducing the C^(rhg) constant,the sea ice compressive strength increases,leading to improved simulated sea ice states.The contribution of thermodynamic processes to sea ice melting was reduced due to less deformation and fracture of sea ice with increased compressive strength.Meanwhile,dynamic processes constrained more sea ice to the central Arctic Ocean and contributed to the increases in ice concentration,reducing the simulation bias in the central Arctic Ocean in summer.The root mean square error(RMSE)between modeled and the CryoSat-2/SMOS satellite observed ice thickness was reduced in the compressive strength-enhanced model solution.The ice thickness,especially of multiyear thick ice,was also reduced and matched with the satellite observation better in the freezing season.These provide an essential foundation on exploring the response of the marine ecosystem and biogeochemical cycling to sea ice changes.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract No.2016YFC1401401the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41630969,41941013 and 41806225。
文摘The sea ice conditions in the Kara Sea have important impacts on Arctic shipping,oil and gas production,and marine environmental changes.In this study,sea ice coverage(C_(R))less than 30%is considered as open water,its onset and end dates are defined as T_(open)and T_(close),respectively.The sea ice melt onset(T_(melt))is defined as the date when ice-sea freshwater flux initially changes from ice into the ocean.Satellite-based sea ice concentration(SIC)from 1989 to 2019 shows a negative correlation between T_(open)and T_(close)(r=-0.77,p<0.01)in the Kara Sea.This phenomenon is also obtained through analyzing the hindcast simulation from 1994 to 2015 by a coupled ocean and sea-ice model(NAPA1/4).The model results reveal that thermodynamics dominate the sea ice variations,and ice basal melt is greater than the ice surface melt.Heat budget estimation suggests that the heat flux is significant correlated with T_(open)(r=-0.95,p<0.01)during the melt period(the duration of multi-year averaged T_(melt)to T_(open))influenced by the sea ice conditions.Additionally,this heat flux is also suggested to dominate the interannual variation of the heat input during the whole heat absorption process(r=0.81,p<0.01).The more heat input during this process leads to later T_(close)(r=0.77,p<0.01).This is the physical basis of the negative correlation between T_(open)and T_(close).Therefore,the duration of open water can be predicted by T_(open)and thence support earlier planning of marine activities.
