Climatic suitability and spatial distribution for summer maize cultivation in China at 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming

Evaluating climatic suitability of crop cultivation lays a foundation for agriculture coping with climate change scientifically. Herein, we analyse changes in the climatically suitable distribution of summer maize cultivation in China at 1.5℃(GW1.5) and 2.0℃(GW2.0) global warming in the future according to the temperature control targets set by the Paris Agreement. Compared with the reference period (1971- 2000), the summer maize cultivation climatically suitable region (CSR) in China mainly shifts eastwards, and its acreage significantly decreases at both GW1.5 and GW2.0. Despite no dramatic changes in the CSR spatial pattern, there are considerable decreases in the acreages of optimum and suitable regions (the core of the main producing region), indicating that half-a-degree more global warming is unfavourable for summer maize production in China's main producing region. When the global warming threshold increases from GW1.5 to GW2.0, the centres-of-gravity of optimum areas shift northeastward under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the centres-of-gravity of both suitable and less suitable areas shift northwestward, though the northward trend is more prominent for the less suitable areas, and the centre-of-gravity of unsuitable areas shifts southeastward. Generally, half-a-degree more global warming drives the cultivable areas of summer maize to shift northward in China, while the west region shows a certain potential for expansion of summer maize cultivation.

黄河水生态承载力的流域整体性和时空连通性

黄河是中华民族的母亲河,黄河流域是中华文明的重要发育地.在中国5000多年的历史长河中,黄河流域作为全国政治、经济和文化中心占据了3000多年,孕育了河洛文化、河湟文化、关中文化等,分布有西安、郑州、洛阳、开封等古都,诞生了四大发明和《诗经》、《老子》、《史记》等经典著作.黄河流域是连接青藏高原、黄土高原和华北平原的生态廊道,是西北和华北地区的重要水源。