公共危机次生型网络舆情危机产生的内在逻辑——基于40个案例的模糊集定性比较分析

论文旨在探究公共危机次生型网络舆情危机产生的核心影响因素及其共变逻辑。通过两层次扎根编码整合既有理论、提炼变量,爬虫技术获取数据,层次分析法进行数据降维,定性比较分析40个案例,以典型案例过程追踪进行理论饱和检验。研究发现:对于次生型网络舆情危机的爆发,没有单一因素是充分条件或必要条件;政府舆情处理、政府公共危机响应、政府自身因素与舆论讨论四个因素为核心因素,其组合路径可视为次生型网络舆情危机爆发的充分条件;次生群体性事件和公共危机元事件为次生型网络舆情危机爆发的次要因素,从自然因素到人为因素再到政府行为因素,引发次生型网络舆情危机的可能性依次递增;媒体影响力起舆情催化作用,不改变舆情演化方向。研究的理论价值在于,发现了网络舆情危机内外因素的耦合共变机制,为次生型网络舆情危机的爆发提供了一种整体性解释。

Incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer in China, 2011

Objective： Colorectal cancer is the third most common type of cancer and the fourth leading cause of cancer-related death in the world. This article provides the most up-to-date overview of colorectal cancer burden in China. Methods： Totally 234 cancer registries submitted data of 2011 to the National Central Cancer Registry （NCCR）. Qualified data from 177 registries was pooled and analyzed. The crude incidence and mortality rates of colorectal cancer were calculated by age, gender and geographic area. The numbers of new cases and deaths were estimated using the 5-year age-specific cancer incidence/mortality rates and the corresponding populations. China census in 2000 and Segi＇s world population were applied for age standardized rates. Results： The estimate of new cases diagnosed with colorectal cancer of China in 2011 was 310,244 （178,404 for males and 131,840 for females, 195,117 in urban areas and 115,128 in rural areas）, accounting for 9.20% of overall new cancer cases. The crude incidence of colorectal cancer ranked fourth in all cancer sites with rate of 23.03/100,000 （25.83/100,000 for males and 20.08/100,000 for female, 28.25/100,000 in urban areas and 17.54/100,000 in rural areas）. The age-standardized rates by China population and by World population were 16.79/100,000 and 16.52/100,000, respectively. The estimated number of colorectal cancer deaths of China in 2011 was 149,722 （86,427 for males and 63,295 for females, 91,682 in urban areas and 58,040 in rural areas）, accounting for 7.09% of overall cancer deaths. The crude mortality rate for colorectal cancer ranked fifth leading cause of cancer-related death in all cancer sites with rate of 11.11/100,000 （12.51/100,000 for males and 9.64/100,000 for female, 13.27/100,000 in urban areas and 8.84/100,000 in rural areas）. The age-standardized rates by China population and by World population for mortality were 7.77/100,000 and 7.66/100,000, respectively. For both of incidence and mortality, the rates of colorectal cancer were much higher in males than in females, and in rural areas than in urban areas. The rate of colorectal cancer increased greatly with age, especially after 40 or 45 years old. Conclusions： Colorectal cancer is a relative common cancer in China, especially for males in urban areas. Targeted prevention and early detection programs should be carried out.

Oral cancer incidence and mortality in China, 2011

Objective： To descript the incidence and mortality rates of oral cancer among Chinese population in 2011, and provide valuable data for oral cancer prevention and research. Methods： Data from 177 population-based cancer registries distributed in 28 provinces were accepted for this study after evaluation based on quality control criteria, covering a total of 175,310,169 populations and accounting for 13.01% of the overall national population in 2011. Incidence and mortality rates were calculated by area, gender and age groups. The numbers of new cases and deaths were estimated using the 5-year age-specific cancer incidence/mortality rates and the corresponding populations. The Chinese population in 2000 and World Segi＇s population were used for age-standardized rates. Results： The estimate of new cases diagnosed with oral cancer was 39,450 including 26,160 males and 13,290 females. The overall crude incidence rate for oral cancer was 2.93/100,000. The age-standardized rates by China （ASRcN） population and by World population （ASRwld） were 2.22/100,000 and 2.17/100,000, respectively. Among subjects aged 0-74 years, the cumulative incidence rate was 0.25%. The estimated number of oral cancer deaths of China in 2011 was 16,933, including 11,794 males and 5,139 females. The overall crude mortality rate was 1.26/I00,000, accounting for 0.80% of all cancer deaths. The ASRcN and ASP^Id for mortality were 0.90/100,000 and 0.89/100,000, respectively. Among subjects aged 0-74 years, the cumulative mortality rate was 0.10%. The incidence and mortality rates of oral cancer were much higher in males and urban areas than in females and rural areas. In addition, the incidence and mortality rates were increased by the raising of ages. Conclusions： Results in the study may have important roles for oral cancer prevention and research. Although oral cancer burden of China is not high, we must pay attention to this malignancy as well. In addition, further researches need to be done for primary and secondary prevention research of oral cancer, especially for the high risk population.

Incidence and mortality of lung cancer in China, 2008-2012

Objective: To analyze the incidence and mortality rates of lung cancer in China from 2008 to 2012.Methods: Incident and death cases of lung cancer were retrieved from the National Central Cancer Registry(NCCR) database collecting from 135 cancer registries in China during 2008-2012.The crude incidence and mortality rates of lung cancer were calculated by area(urban/rural),region(eastern,middle,western),gender and age group(0,1-4,5-9,…,85+).China census in 2000 and Segi’s world population were applied for agestandardized rates.JoinPoint(Version 4.5.0.1) model was used for time trend analysis.Results: The crude incidence rate of lung cancer was 54.66/100,000 which ranked the first in overall cancers.The age-standardized incidence rates by China population(ASIRC) and by World population(ASIRW) were35.13/100,000 and 34.86/100,000,respectively.The crude mortality of lung cancer in China was 45.60/100,000 and it was the first cause of cancer-related death in overall cancers.The age-standardized mortality rates by Chinese standard population(ASMRC) and by world standard population(ASMRW) were 28.57/100,000 and 28.22/100,000,respectively.Incidence and mortality rates of lung cancer were higher in males than in females and higher in urban areas than in rural areas.Eastern areas had the highest incidence and mortality rates followed by middle and western areas.Incidence and mortality rates of lung cancer retained low level in age groups before 40 years old but increased greatly after and peaked in age group of 80-84.During 2003-2012,the temporal trend of the incidence rate of lung cancer in both sexes in China was general stable(P<0.05).The lung cancer incidence rate increased by 0.71% per year in females(P<0.05) and 2.26% per year in rural areas(P<0.05).The mortality rate of lung cancer decreased slightly annually during 2003-2012 in China(P>0.05).In urban areas,it declined by 0.76%per year(P<0.05),but rose by 2.09% per year(P<0.05) in rural areas.Conclusions: Appropriate targeted prevention,early detection and treatment programs should be carried out to control the local burden of lung cancer.

Cancer incidence and mortality in Henan province,2012

Objective： Population-based cancer registration data in 2012 from all available cancer registries in Henan province were collected by Henan Office for Cancer Research and Control. The numbers of new cancer cases and cancer deaths in Henan province with compiled cancer incidence and mortality rates were estimated. Methods： In 2015, all registries＇ data in Henan province were qualified for the national cancer registry annual report in 2012. The pooled data were stratified by area （urban/rural）, gender, age group （0, 1-4, 5-9, 10-14, ..., 85＋） and cancer type. New cancer cases and deaths were estimated using age-specific rates and corresponding population of Henan province in 2012. The Chinese census data in 2000 and Segi＇s population were applied for age-standardized rates. All the rates were expressed per 100,000 person-years. Results： Qualified 19 cancer registries （4 urban and 15 rural registries） covered 16,082,688 populations of Henan province in 2012. The percentage of cases with morphologically verified （MV%） and death certificate- only cases （DCO%） were 69.84% and 2.30%, respectively, and the mortality to incidence rate ratio （M/ I） was 0.64. It was estimated that there were 248,510 new cancer cases and 158,630 cancer deaths in Henan province in 2012. The incidence rate was 266.17/100,000 （288.61/100,000 in males and 241.86/100,000 in females）, the age-standardized incidence rates by Chinese standard population （ASIRC） and by world standard population （ASIRW） were 208.95/100,000 and 206.41/100,000 with the cumulative incidence rate （0-74 years old） of 24.30%. The crude incidence rate in urban areas was higher than that in rural areas. However, after adjusted by age, the cancer incidence rate in rural was higher than that in urban areas. The crude mortality of all cancers in Henan province was 169.90/100,000 （201.23/100,000 in males and 135.95/100,000 in females）. The age-standardized mortality rates by Chinese standard population （ASMRC） and by world standard population （ASMRW） were 131.20/100,000 and 130.80/100,000, respectively. Among the patients aged 0-74 years, the cumulative mortality rate was 15.03%. The crude cancer mortality rate in urban areas was higher than that of rural areas. However, the age-standardized rate in rural areas was higher than that of urban areas. Cancers of lung, stomach, esophagus, liver, female breast, colorectum, cervix, brain, uterus and ovary were the most common cancers, accounting for about 82.80% of all cancer new cases. Lung cancer, stomach cancer, esophageal cancer, liver cancer, colorectal cancer, female breast cancer, brain cancer, leukemia, pancreatic cancer and cervix cancer were the leading causes of cancer deaths, accounting for about 88.50% of all cancer deaths. The burden between urban and rural, males and females were different. Conclusions： Registration data of Henan province was qualified to provide basic information on population-based cancer incidence, mortality for cancer prevention and control. The upper digestive tract cancer burden in Henan province, especially for males in rural areas, was higher. The incidence rate of female breast cancer was higher in urban areas. Targeted prevention, early detection and treatment programs should be carried out by health department to control the cancer burden.

Topography modulates effects of nitrogen deposition on microbial resource limitation in a nitrogen-saturated subtropical forest

Background:Nitrogen(N)saturation theory proposes that an ecosystem might switch from N limitation to carbon(C),phosphorus(P),or other nutrient limitations if it receives continuous N input.Yet,after N limitation is removed,which nutrient is the most limited and whether topography modulates such change is rarely tested at a microbial level.Here,we conducted a two-year N addition experiment under two different topography positions(i.e.a slope and a valley)in a N-saturated subtropical forest.Soil enzyme activity was measured,and ecoenzymatic stoichiometry indexes were calculated as indicators of microbial resource limitation.Results:In the valley,two-year N addition changed the activity of all studied enzymes to various degrees.As a result,microbial C limitation was aggravated in the valley,and consequently microbial decomposition of soil labile organic C increased,but microbial P limitation was alleviated due to the stoichiometry balance.On the slope,however,N addition did not significantly change the activity of the studied enzymes,and did not alter the status of microbial resource limitation.Conclusions:These results indicate that C is a more limited element for microbial growth than P after removing N limitation,but we also highlight that topography can regulate the effect of N deposition on soil microbial resource limitation in subtropical forests.These findings provide useful supplements to the N saturation theory.

No tillage outperforms conventional tillage under arid conditions and following fertilization

Reduced tillage practices present a tool that could sustainably intensify agriculture.The existing literature,however,lacks a consensus on how and when reduced tillage practices should get implemented.We reanalyzed here an extensive dataset comparing how regular tillage practices(i.e.,conventional tillage)impacted yield of eight crops compared to stopping tillage altogether(i.e.,no-tillage practice).We observed that aridity and fertilization favored no tillage over conventional tillage whereas conventional tillage performed better under high fertility settings.We further show that the responses are consistent across the crops.Our reanalysis complements the original and fills a gap in the literature questioning the conditions under which reducing tillage presents a viable alternative to common tillage practices.

Clinical characteristics and survival of 5283 esophageal cancer patients: A multicenter study from eighteen hospitals across six regions in China

Objective:This study aimed to investigate the potential determining epidemiological and clinical risk factors affecting the survival of esophageal cancer(EC)patients across multiple hospitals in China.Methods:This was a multicenter study comprising of newly diagnosed EC cases from Beijing,Hebei,Henan,Hubei,Zhejiang,and Guangdong Province of China.Their baseline characteristics and treatment methods data were collected from their medical records.The EpiData software was used for data quality control.The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate their overall survival(OS),and the Cox’s proportional hazard regression model was used to estimate hazard ratios(HR)and 95%confidence interval(CI).Results:The 3-and 5-year OS rates of the 5283 investigated EC patients were 49.98%and 39.07%,respectively.Their median survival was 36.00 months.The median survival time of females was longer than that of males(females vs.males:45.00 vs.33.00,P<0.001).The 5-year OS rate of patients who never-smoked was higher than that of smokers(never-smokers vs smokers:40.73%vs.37.84%,P=0.001).There was no significant difference in the 5-year OS rate between drinkers and never-drinkers(drinkers vs never-drinkers:34.22%vs.29.65%,P=0.330).In multivariate analysis,pathological stage(stage II:HR=1.80,95%CI=1.40-2.31;stage III:HR=2.62,95%CI=2.06-3.34;stage IV:HR=3.90,95%CI=2.98-5.09),poor differentiation/undifferentiated(HR=1.34,95%CI=1.11-1.63),not married status(HR=2.45,95%CI=1.49-4.04),production and service personnel(HR=1.36,95%CI=1.01-1.83)and farming/fishing(HR=1.40,95%CI=1.12-1.76)were independent prognostic risk factors for poor EC survival.Tumors in the thoracic or abdominal part of the esophagus,female and family history of any cancer were independent factors predictive of a good EC OS.Conclusion:Gender,marital status,occupation,family history of any cancer,tumor topographical site,differentiation status,and pathological stage were associated with the survival rate of EC.This study reveals important clinical characteristics of esophageal cancer patients in China and provides helpful information for their clinical management and surveillance.

Improved esophageal squamous cell carcinoma screening effectiveness by risk-stratified endoscopic screening:evidence from high-risk areas in China

Background:Risk-stratified endoscopic screening(RSES),which offers endoscopy to those with a high risk of esophageal cancer,has the potential to increase effectiveness and reduce endoscopic demands compared with the universal screening strategy(i.e.,endoscopic screening for all targets without risk prediction).Evidence of RSES in high-risk areas of China is limited.This study aimed to estimate whether RSES based on a 22-score esophageal squamous cell carcinoma(ESCC)risk prediction model could optimize the universal endoscopic screening strategy for ESCC screening in high-risk areas of China.Methods:Eight epidemiological variables in the ESCC risk prediction model were collected retrospectively from 26,618 individuals aged 40-69 from three high-risk areas of China who underwent endoscopic screening betweenMay 2015 and July 2017.The model’s performance was estimated using the area under the curve(AUC).Participants were categorized into a high-risk group and a low-risk group with a cutoff score having sensitivities of both ESCC and severe dysplasia and above(SDA)at more than 90.0%.Results:The ESCC risk prediction model had an AUC of 0.80(95% confidence interval:0.75-0.84)in this external population.We found that a score of 8(ranging from 0 to 22)had a sensitivity of 94.2% for ESCC and 92.5% for SDA.The RSES strategy using this threshold score would allow 50.6% of endoscopies to be avoided and save approximately US$0.59 million compared to universal endoscopic screening among 26,618 participants.In addition,a higher prevalence of SDA(1.7%vs.0.9%),a lower number need to screen(60 vs.111),and a lower average cost per detected SDA(US$3.22 thousand vs.US$5.45 thousand)could have been obtained by the RSES strategy.Conclusions:The RSES strategy based on individual risk has the potential to optimize the universal endoscopic screening strategy in ESCC high-risk areas of China.