Predictors and long-term prognosis of early and late recurrence for patients undergoing hepatic resection of hepatocellular carcinoma: a large-scale multicenter study

Recurrence is common among patients undergoing hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC),which greatly limits long-term survival.We aimed to identify predictors and long-term prognosis of early and late recurrence after HCC resection.Methods:Multicenter data of patients who underwent HCC resection between 2002 and 2016 were analyzed.Recurrence was divided into early(≤2 years)and late recurrence(>2 years after surgery).Predictors of early and late recurrence,and prognostic factors of post-recurrence survival(PRS)were identified by univariate and multivariate analyses.Results:Among 1,426 patients,554(38.8%)and 348(24.4%)developed early and late recurrence,respectively.Independent predictors associated with early recurrence included preoperative alpha-fetoprotein level>400μg/L,resection margin<1 cm,and tumor size>5.0 cm,multiplicity,macrovascular and microvascular invasion,and satellites of the initial tumor at the first diagnosis of HCC;independent predictors associated with late recurrence included male,cirrhosis,and tumor size>5.0 cm,multiplicity,macrovascular and microvascular invasion,and satellites of the initial tumor.Patients with early recurrence had a lower likelihood of undergoing potentially curative treatments for recurrence(37.2%vs.48.0%,P<0.001)and a worse median PRS(13.5 vs.36.6 months,P<0.001)vs.patients who had late recurrence.Multivariate analysis revealed that early recurrence and irregular postoperative surveillance were independently associated with worse PRS[hazard ratio(HR)=1.250,95%CI:1.016-1.538,P=0.035;and HR=1.983,95%CI:1.677-2.345,P<0.001].Conclusions:Predictors associated with early and late recurrence after curative resection for patients with HCC were generally same,although several did differ.Patients with late recurrence had better long-term survival than patients with early recurrence.

Association of tumor morphology with long-term prognosis after liver resection for patients with a solitary huge hepatocellular carcinoma-a multicenter propensity score matching analysis

Background:A solitary hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)without macrovascular invasion and distant metastasis,regardless of tumor size,is currently classified as early-stage disease by the latest Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer(BCLC)staging system.While the preferred treatment is surgical resection,the association of tumor morphology with long-term survival outcomes after liver resection for a solitary huge HCC of≥10 cm has not been defined.Methods:Patients who underwent curative liver resection for a solitary huge HCC were identified from a multicenter database.Preoperative imaging findings were used to define spherical-or ellipsoidal-shaped lesions with smooth edges as balloon-shaped HCCs(BS-HCCs);out-of-shape lesions or lesions of any shape with matt edges were defined as non-balloon-shaped HCCs(NBS-HCCs).The two groups of patients with BS-HCCs and NBS-HCCs were matched in a 1:1 ratio using propensity score matching(PSM).Clinicopathologic characteristics,long-term overall survival(OS)and recurrence-free survival(RFS)were assessed.Results:Among patients with a solitary huge HCC,74 pairs of patients with BS-HCC and NBS-HCC were matched.Tumor pathological features including proportions of microvascular invasion,satellite nodules,and incomplete tumor encapsulation in the BS-HCC group were lower than the NBS-HCC group.At a median follow-up of 50.7 months,median OS and RFS of all patients with a solitary huge HCC after PSM were 27.8 and 10.1 months,respectively.The BS-HCC group had better median OS and RFS than the NBS-HCC group(31.9 vs.21.0 months,P=0.01;and 19.7 vs.6.4 months,P=0.015).Multivariate analyses identified BS-HCC as independently associated with better OS(HR=0.592,P=0.009)and RFS(HR=0.633,P=0.013).Conclusions:For a solitary huge HCC,preoperative imaging on tumor morphology was associated with prognosis following resection.In particular,patients with BS-HCCs had better long-term survival following liver resection versus patients with large NBS-HCCs.

Reply to: The letter to the editor “More details are needed about the use of multicenter propensity score matching analysis” by Feng et al.

We thank Dr.Feng and his colleagues for their interest and thoughtful commentaries on our recently published study on the association between tumor morphology and prognosis of solitary huge hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)after curative liver resection(1).Based on propensity score matching(PSM)analysis,the present study demonstrated that balloon-shaped HCC(BS-HCC)was independently associated with better overall survival(OS)and recurrence-free survival(RFS)after surgery.