山东地区一次夏季极端暴雨中尺度系统发展演变过程及机理分析

对2020年7月22日山东半岛一次极端暴雨天气过程开展观测分析,并利用中尺度模式WRF对此次局地降水过程进行了高分辨率数值模拟,对暴雨过程进行了天气背景和中尺度降雨的诊断。WRF模式较好地再现了此次极端暴雨过程,结果表明:此次极端暴雨过程短时降水强度大且局地性强,在时空上具有明显中尺度特征。降水发生在北抬副热带高压与华北低涡底部之间的西南气流中,强低涡与低空急流是影响此次降水的重要天气系统。西南急流为本次暴雨过程极端水汽的主要输送载体;在弱高空辐散场下,从地表延伸至500 hPa高空的深厚低涡是造成本次暴雨的主要影响因子,其时空演变特征与中尺度云团变化一致,与暴雨的发生直接相关。低涡、低空急流和副高之间的相互作用使低涡加强发展,低涡南部有暖湿气流入流,北部有干冷气流流入,比湿梯度基本呈现为自南向北递减分布,是典型的伴有低空急流的中尺度低涡流场分布;低涡辐合及其与副热带高压边缘强风速带的共同作用,导致强垂直运动发展并维持,是造成本次山东半岛极端暴雨的重要原因。

The Warm Arctic-Cold Eurasia Pattern and Its Key Region in Winter in CMIP6 Model Simulations

An enhanced Warm Arctic-Cold Eurasia(WACE)pattern has been a notable feature in recent winters of the Northern Hemisphere.However,divergent results between model and observational studies of the WACE still remain.This study evaluates the performance of 39 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)in simulating the WACE pattern in winter of 1980-2014 and explores the key factors causing the differences in the simulation capability among the models.The results show that the multimodel ensemble(MME)can better simulate the spatial distribution of the WACE pattern than most single models.Models that can/cannot simulate both the climatology and the standard deviation of the Eurasian winter surface air temperature well,especially the latter,usually can/cannot simulate the WACE pattern well.This mainly results from the different abilities of the models to simulate the range and intensity of the warm anomaly in the Barents Sea-Kara seas(BKS)region.Further analysis shows that a good performance of the models in the BKS area is usually related to their ability to simulate location and persistence of Ural blocking(UB),which can transport heat to the BKS region,causing the warm Arctic,and strengthen the westerly trough downstream,cooling central Eurasia.Therefore,simulation of UB is key and significantly affects the model’s performance in simulating the WACE.

On the Mechanism of a Terrain-Influenced Snow Burst Event during Midwinter in Northeast China

Short-duration snow bursts with heavy snow represent one type of hazardous weather in winter which can be easily missed by the winter weather warnings but often results in great hazards.In this paper,the mechanism for the occurrence of such events was investigated with the aid of a localized terrain-influenced snow burst event in Northeast China.The snow burst was produced by an eastward-moving cold-frontal snowband which encountered the downstream complex terrain of the Changbai Mountains and intensified.To ascertain the role of orography on the snow burst,numerical experiments,together with a parallel sensitivity experiment removing Changbai Mountains,were performed to attempt to distinguish the contributions of cold-frontal system and orographic effects to produce the heavy snow.Diagnosis showed that without the influence of Changbai Mountains,the release of conditional instability(CI)and inertial instability(II)within a weak frontogenetical environment was responsible for the snowband maintenance.Orographic effects played important roles in enhancing the snowband and increasing the snowfall intensities.The enhancement mechanism was related to the interactions of the cold-frontal snowband and the topography.On the one hand,orographic frontogenesis and persistent ascent,created by orographic gravity waves over the terrain,greatly enhanced the orographic lifting.The intensification of the lifting promoted the release of CI and thus enhanced the snowfall.On the other hand,pre-existing orographic instabilities were released due to the passing of the cold-frontal snowband,which could also serve to intensify the snowband over terrain and thus increase the snowfall.

Precipitation Responses to Radiative Effects of Ice Clouds:A Cloud-Resolving Modeling Study of a Pre-Summer Torrential Precipitation Event

The precipitation responses to the radiative effects of ice clouds are investigated through analysis of five-day and hori- zontally averaged data from 2D cumulus ensemble model experiments of a pre-summer torrential precipitation event. The exclusion of the radiative effects of ice clouds lowered the precipitation rate through a substantial reduction in the decrease of hydrometeors when the radiative effects of water clouds were switched on, whereas it increased the precipitation rate through hydrometeor change from an increase to a decrease when the radiative effects of ice clouds were turned off. The weakened hydrometeor decrease was associated with the enhanced longwave radiative cooling mainly through the decreases in the melt- ing of non-precipitating ice to non-precipitating water. The hydrometeor change from an increase to a decrease corresponded to the strengthened longwave radiative cooling in the upper troposphere through the weakened collection of non-precipitating water by precipitation water.

Three-Dimensional Wind Field Retrieved from Dual-Doppler Radar Based on a Variational Method:Refinement of Vertical Velocity Estimates

In this paper,a scheme of dual-Doppler radar wind analysis based on a three-dimensional variational method is proposed and performed in two steps.First,the horizontal wind field is simultaneously recovered through minimizing a cost function defined as a radial observation term with the standard conjugate gradient method,avoiding a weighting parameter specification step.Compared with conventional dual-Doppler wind synthesis approaches,this variational method minimizes errors caused by interpolation from radar observation to analysis grid in the iterative solution process,which is one of the main sources of errors.Then,through the accelerated Liebmann method,the vertical velocity is further reestimated as an extra step by solving the Poisson equation with impermeable conditions imposed at the ground and near the tropopause.The Poisson equation defined by the second derivative of the vertical velocity is derived from the mass continuity equation.Compared with the method proposed by O’Brien,this method is less sensitive to the uncertainty of the boundary conditions and has better stability and reliability.Furthermore,the method proposed in this paper is applied to Doppler radar observation of a squall line process.It is shown that the retrieved vertical wind profile agrees well with the vertical profile obtained with the velocity–azimuth display(VAD)method,and the retrieved radial velocity as well as the analyzed positive and negative velocity centers and horizontal wind shear of the squall line are in accord with radar observations.There is a good correspondence between the divergence field of the derived wind field and the vertical velocity.And,the horizontal and vertical circulations within and around the squall line,as well as strong updrafts,the associated downdrafts,and associated rear inflow of the bow echo,are analyzed well.It is worth mentioning that the variational method in this paper can be applied to simultaneously synthesize the three-dimensional wind field from multiple-Doppler radar observations.

东北一次雪飑事件的触发机制研究

2017年1月26日,中国东北地区发生了一次短时强降雪过程.本文利用ECMWF再分析数据诊断该过程的可能触发机制.分析表明,该过程可分两个阶段:初生阶段降雪远离高地形,低层锋生和有利的辐散场配置激发上升运动释放不稳定;增强阶段雪带接近长白山,低层锋生,地形环流以及与低空急流有关的风切变共同释放锋前不稳定.本文进一步计算了包含广义位温的修正Q矢量方程.结果表明,锋生项对沿湿等熵线的负Q矢量散度贡献较大,而拟涡度项在暖区强风切变区域中比较显著,两项在激发上升运动中同等重要.

Long-term trend of water vapor over the Tibetan Plateau in boreal summer under global warming

In this study,the long-term trend of water vapor over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)in boreal summer is investigated by using observation and reanalysis data from 1979 to 2019.The historical experiment simulations of 19 models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)are evaluated,and the future variation tendency under four emission scenarios is projected.The results indicate that the water vapor content and the net water vapor budget over the TP show notable increasing trends,which are mainly manifested by a significant increase in the net water vapor import and a significant decrease in the water vapor export on the eastern boundary of the TP.This is mainly due to an anomalous anticyclone from Lake Baikal to the Mongolian Plateau.The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble can well simulate the variation characteristics of the TP net water vapor budget.The projection results indicate that by the end of the twenty-first century,the water vapor content,the net water vapor import and precipitation over the TP will increase.Under a high-emissions scenario and compared with the current period(1991–2014),these three variables will increase by 47.99%,59.77%and 18.59%in the long term(2081–2100),respectively.The significant enhancement of meridional water vapor transport over the northern TP may be the main reason for the increase in humidity over the TP.

The evolution of hollow symmetric-PV tower during the landfall of Typhoon Mujigae(2015)

The evolution of Typhoon Mujigae(2015)during the landfall period is determined using potential vorticity(PV)based on a high-resolution numerical simulation.Diabatic heating from deep moist convections in the eyewall produces a hollow PV tower extending from the lower troposphere to the middle levels.Since the potential temperature and wind fields could be highly asymmetric during landfall,the fields are divided into symmetric and asymmetric components.Thus,PV is split into three parts:symmetric PV,first-order asymmetric PV,and quadratic-order asymmetric PV.By calculating the azimuth mean,the first-order term disappears.The symmetric PV is at least one order of magnitude larger than the azimuthal mean quadratic-order term,nearly accounting for the mean cyclone.Furthermore,the symmetric PV tendency equation is derived in cylindrical coordinates.The budget terms include the symmetric heating term,flux divergence of symmetric PV advection due to symmetric flow,flux divergence of partial first-order PV advection due to asymmetric flow,and the conversion term between the symmetric PV and quadratic-order asymmetric term.The diagnostic results indicate that the symmetric heating term is responsible for the hollow PV tower generation and maintenance.The symmetric flux divergence largely offsets the symmetric heating contribution,resulting in a horizontal narrow ring and vertical extension structure.The conversion term contribution is comparable to the mean term contributions,while the contribution of the partial first-order PV asymmetric flux divergence is apparently smaller.The conversion term implicitly contains the combined effects of processes that result in asymmetric structures.This term tends to counteract the contribution of symmetric terms before landfall and favor horizontal PV mixing after landfall.