Acute pancreatitis(AP) is characterized by its sudden onset and rapid progression and is often complicated by liver injury. APinduced liver injury may develop into hepatic failure and even result in death. Thus, it ...Acute pancreatitis(AP) is characterized by its sudden onset and rapid progression and is often complicated by liver injury. APinduced liver injury may develop into hepatic failure and even result in death. Thus, it is of importance to protect liver function and block injury-related pathways. In the pathogenesis of liver injury in AP, inflammatory cytokines, nuclear factor-kappa B(NF- κB) and oxygen free radicals play important roles. The complexity of the mechanism underlying the development of liver injury exerts, to some extent, a contribution to the difficulties in the treatment of this disease. Currently, the drugs used to treat the disease include L-arginine (L-Arg), calcium ion antagonists, somatostatin and a variety of inflammatory mediator inhibitors. Additionally, some traditional Chinese medicines such as tfipterygium, wilfordii, rhubarb and salvia milfiorrhizae may also have some effects. In this article, the pathogenesis of liver injury in AP and its therapy are reviewed.展开更多
As common acute abdomen, most of acute pancreatifis(AP) are self-restricted. Only a few patients may develop into worse state with local complications or organ failures, and finally neastic acute pancreatitis (NAP...As common acute abdomen, most of acute pancreatifis(AP) are self-restricted. Only a few patients may develop into worse state with local complications or organ failures, and finally neastic acute pancreatitis (NAP). With the change of people's dietaries, cholelithiasis morbidity and popularization of wine in recent years, the number of AP patients has increased. Although people conducted enormous studies on pathogenesis of AP and brought forward many be valuable theories, yet the exact mechanism is still unclear by far. There are many therapies of AP which should be unexceptionally classified as operative therapy and non-operative therapy. With the increasing understanding of the disease in recent years, we found many defects of operation and good therapeutic effects of traditional Chinese medicine in AP. Traditional Chinese medicine as an auxiliary therapy has been generally paid close attention in clinical practices. Traditional Chinese medicine is a treasure-house of China. This article summarizes the main mechanisms of AP treatment by traditional Chinese medicine and the progress of laboratory studies. It aims to help people recognize the multiple-target treatment effects and conspicuous efficacy of traditional Chinese medicine and promote the popularization of traditional Chinese medicine in AP treatment.展开更多
Super Typhoon Doksuri is a significant meteorological challenge for China this year due to its strong intensity and wide influence range,as well as significant and prolonged hazards.In this work,we studied Doksuri'...Super Typhoon Doksuri is a significant meteorological challenge for China this year due to its strong intensity and wide influence range,as well as significant and prolonged hazards.In this work,we studied Doksuri's main characteristics and assessed its forecast accuracy meticulously based on official forecasts,global models and regional models with lead times varying from 1 to 5 days.The results indicate that Typhoon Doksuri underwent rapid intensification and made landfall at 09:55 BJT on July 28 with a powerful intensity of 50 m s−1 confirmed by the real-time operational warnings issued by China Meteorological Administration(CMA).The typhoon also caused significant wind and rainfall impacts,with precipitation at several stations reaching historical extremes,ranking eighth in terms of total rainfall impact during the event.The evaluation of forecast accuracy for Doksuri suggests that Shanghai Multi-model Ensemble Method(SSTC)and Fengwu Model are the most effective for short-term track forecasts.Meanwhile,the forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)and United Kingdom Meteorological Office(UKMO)are optimal for long-term predictions.It is worth noting that objective forecasts systematically underestimate the typhoon maximum intensity.The objective forecast is terribly poor when there is a sudden change in intensity.CMA-National Digital Forecast System(CMA-NDFS)provides a better reference value for typhoon accumulated rainfall forecasts,and regional models perform well in forecasting extreme rainfall.The analyses above assist forecasters in pinpointing challenges within typhoon predictions and gaining a comprehensive insight into the performance of each model.This improves the effective application of model products.展开更多
The forecasts of tropical cyclones(TC) in 2016 from 5 official guidances, 5 global models, 3 regional models and 6 ensemble systems were assessed to study the current capabilities of track and intensity forecasts for ...The forecasts of tropical cyclones(TC) in 2016 from 5 official guidances, 5 global models, 3 regional models and 6 ensemble systems were assessed to study the current capabilities of track and intensity forecasts for the western North Pacific. In 2016, the position errors for each official agency were under 85, 150 and 250 km at the lead times of 24, 48, and 72 h, respectively,indicating the performance of track forecasts was a little worse than that in 2015. For each lead time, decreases were seen for each quantile value of the global models from 2010 to 2015; however, this progress in forecasts was stagnated or was reversed in 2016, especially for long lead times.A new error tracking tool,called a "Track Error Rose",was used to visualize the spatial distributions of the track forecast error relative to the observed TC center. The results show that as lead time increases, the moving speed of most global model TC forecasts becomes slower than those of the observations, and the largest track error often appears to the south of the observation position. In 2016, JMA-GSM, NCEP-GFS, STI-GRAPES and UKMO-MetUM made considerable progress in their intensity forecasts at lead times of 24 and 48 h, and the EPS intensity forecasts made significant progress compared to those of 2015.展开更多
The operational track and intensity forecast errors of tropical cyclones(TCs) over the western North Pacific in 2015 were evaluated on the basis of RSMC-Tokyo's "best-track" dataset. The results showed t...The operational track and intensity forecast errors of tropical cyclones(TCs) over the western North Pacific in 2015 were evaluated on the basis of RSMC-Tokyo's "best-track" dataset. The results showed that position errors for each official agency were under 80 km, 130 km, 180 km, 260 km and 370 km at 24, 48, 72, 96 and 120 hr lead time. Stepped decreases in the values of each quantile were made at every lead times and have been made by global models from 2010 to 2015, especially for long lead time. The results of the Track Forecast Integral Deviation(TFID) show a clearly decreasing trend for most global models, indicating that the TC forecast tracks became increasingly similar to the observations. In 2015, the intensity forecast skill scores for both global and regional models were almost negative. However, the skill of EPSs' intensity forecasting has made significant progress in the past year.展开更多
Breast cancer is a malignant tumor that seriously endangers women's lives. The prognosis of breast cancer patients differs among molecular types. Compared with other subtypes, triple-negative breast cancer(TNBC) h...Breast cancer is a malignant tumor that seriously endangers women's lives. The prognosis of breast cancer patients differs among molecular types. Compared with other subtypes, triple-negative breast cancer(TNBC) has been a research hotspot in recent years because of its high degree of malignancy, strong invasiveness, rapid progression, easy of recurrence,distant metastasis, poor prognosis, and high mortality. Many studies have found that long non-coding RNA(lncRNA) plays an important role in the occurrence, proliferation, migration, recurrence, chemotherapy resistance, and other characteristics of TNBC. Some lncRNAs are expected to become biomarkers in the diagnosis and prognosis of TNBC, and even new targets for its treatment. Based on a PubMed literature search, this review summarizes the progress in research on lncRNAs in TNBC and discusses their roles in TNBC diagnosis, prognosis, and chemotherapy with the hope of providing help for future research.展开更多
The predictions for Super Typhoon Lekima(2019)have been evaluated from official forecasts,global models,regional models and ensemble prediction systems(EPSs)at lead times of 1–5 days.Track errors from most determinis...The predictions for Super Typhoon Lekima(2019)have been evaluated from official forecasts,global models,regional models and ensemble prediction systems(EPSs)at lead times of 1–5 days.Track errors from most deterministic forecasts are smaller than their annual mean errors in 2019.Compared to the propagation speed,the propagation direction of Lekima(2019)was much easier to determine for the official agency and numerical weather prediction(NWP)models.The National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Ensemble Forecast System(NCEP-GEFS),Japan Meteorological Agency Global Ensemble Prediction System(JMA-GEPS)and Meteorological Service of Canada Ensemble System(MSC-CENS)are underdispersed,and the Shanghai Typhoon Institute Typhoon Ensemble Data Assimilation and Prediction System(STI-TEDAPS)is overdispersed,while the ensemble prediction system from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)shows adequate dispersion at all lead times.Most deterministic forecasting methods underestimated the intensity of Lekima(2019),especially for the rapid intensification period after Lekima(2019)entered the East China Sea.All of the deterministic forecasts performed well at predicting the first landfall point at Wenling,Zhejiang Province with a lead time of 24 and 48 h.展开更多
Sentinel lymph nodes(SLNs)are the first station of lymph nodes that extend from the breast tumor to the axillary lymphatic drainage.The pathological status of these LNs can predict that of the entire axillary lymph no...Sentinel lymph nodes(SLNs)are the first station of lymph nodes that extend from the breast tumor to the axillary lymphatic drainage.The pathological status of these LNs can predict that of the entire axillary lymph node.Therefore,the accurate identification of SLNs is necessary for sentinel lymph node biopsy(SLNB)to replace axillary lymph node dissection(ALND).The quality of life and prognosis of breast cancer patients are related to proper surgical treatment after the precise identification of SLNs.Some of the SLN tracers that have been identified include radioisotope,nano-carbon,indocyanine green(ICG),and methylene blue(MB).However,these tracers have certain limitations,such as pigmentation,radiation dangers,and the requirement for costly detection equipment.Ultrasound contrast agents(UCAs)have good specificity and sensitivity,and thus can compensate for some shortcomings of the mentioned tracers.This technique is also being applied to SLNB in patients with breast cancer,and can even provide an initial judgment on SLN status.Contrast-enhanced ultrasound(CEUS)has the advantages of high distinguishability,simple operation,no radiation harm,low cost,and accurate localization;therefore,it is expected to replace the traditional biopsy methods.In addition,it can significantly enhance the accuracy of SLN localization and shorten the operation time.展开更多
Typhoon Lekima(2019)struck Zhejiang Province on 10 August 2019 as a supertyphoon,which severely impacted Zhejiang Province.The typhoon killed 45 people and left three others missing,and the total economic loss reached...Typhoon Lekima(2019)struck Zhejiang Province on 10 August 2019 as a supertyphoon,which severely impacted Zhejiang Province.The typhoon killed 45 people and left three others missing,and the total economic loss reached 40.71 billion yuan.This paper reports a postdisaster survey that focuses on the storm precipitation,flooding,landslides,and weather services associated with Typhoon Lekima(2019)along the southeastern coastline of Zhejiang Province.The survey was conducted by a joint survey team from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute and local meteorological bureaus from 26 to 28 August,2019,approximately two weeks after the disaster.Based on this survey and subsequent analyses of the results,we hope to develop countermeasures to prevent future tragedies.展开更多
The track forecasts of fi ve ensemble prediction systems(JMA-WEPS,CMA-GEFS,ECMWF-EPS,NCEP-GEFS and MSC-CENS,respectively)in 2014 are evaluated in this paper.First,on the assumption of bivariate normal distribution,a p...The track forecasts of fi ve ensemble prediction systems(JMA-WEPS,CMA-GEFS,ECMWF-EPS,NCEP-GEFS and MSC-CENS,respectively)in 2014 are evaluated in this paper.First,on the assumption of bivariate normal distribution,a probability ellipse based on ensemble spread is proposed to represent forecast uncertainties,and then the ellipse and ensemble mean are used to evaluate the fi ve different systems.It is found that the probability ellipse of ECMWF-EPS is smaller,with a high hit ratio,and its mean track errors are just a little larger than those of NCEP-GEFS within 48 h,meaning overall it outperforms the other four systems.Meanwhile,the performance of CMA-GEFS is found to be the poorest.展开更多
The forecasts of tropical cyclones(TC)in 2017 from five official guides,six global models,six regional models and six ensemble systems were assessed to study the current capability of track and intensity forecasts for...The forecasts of tropical cyclones(TC)in 2017 from five official guides,six global models,six regional models and six ensemble systems were assessed to study the current capability of track and intensity forecasts for the western North Pacific.The results show that the position errors for official agencies were under 100,165,265,335 and 425 km at the lead times of 24,48,72,96 and 120 h,respectively.As the forecast lead times increased,the forecasted TCs propagated,on average,too slow for most official guides.It is encouraging to note that all the models had positive skill scores,there is an overall upward trend in the skill scores of the models during from 2010 to 2017.Furthermore,both global and regional models’intensity forecast skill was increasing year by year from 2010 to 2017.For the ensemble prediction systems(EPSs),ECMWF-EPS was the best forecast system for the lead time less than 72 h,beyond the 72 h,the best EPS belong to NCEP-GEFS.展开更多
基金technological foundation project of Tradi-tional Chinese Medicine Science of Zhejiang province(NO.2003C130 NO.2004C142)+4 种基金foundation project for medical science and technology of Zhejiang province(NO.2003B134)grave foundation project for tech-nological and development of Hangzhou(NO.2003123B19)intensive foundation project for technology of Hangzhou(NO.2004Z006)foundation project for medical science and technology of Hangzhou(No.2003A004)foundation project for technology of Hangzhou(NO.2005224)
文摘Acute pancreatitis(AP) is characterized by its sudden onset and rapid progression and is often complicated by liver injury. APinduced liver injury may develop into hepatic failure and even result in death. Thus, it is of importance to protect liver function and block injury-related pathways. In the pathogenesis of liver injury in AP, inflammatory cytokines, nuclear factor-kappa B(NF- κB) and oxygen free radicals play important roles. The complexity of the mechanism underlying the development of liver injury exerts, to some extent, a contribution to the difficulties in the treatment of this disease. Currently, the drugs used to treat the disease include L-arginine (L-Arg), calcium ion antagonists, somatostatin and a variety of inflammatory mediator inhibitors. Additionally, some traditional Chinese medicines such as tfipterygium, wilfordii, rhubarb and salvia milfiorrhizae may also have some effects. In this article, the pathogenesis of liver injury in AP and its therapy are reviewed.
文摘As common acute abdomen, most of acute pancreatifis(AP) are self-restricted. Only a few patients may develop into worse state with local complications or organ failures, and finally neastic acute pancreatitis (NAP). With the change of people's dietaries, cholelithiasis morbidity and popularization of wine in recent years, the number of AP patients has increased. Although people conducted enormous studies on pathogenesis of AP and brought forward many be valuable theories, yet the exact mechanism is still unclear by far. There are many therapies of AP which should be unexceptionally classified as operative therapy and non-operative therapy. With the increasing understanding of the disease in recent years, we found many defects of operation and good therapeutic effects of traditional Chinese medicine in AP. Traditional Chinese medicine as an auxiliary therapy has been generally paid close attention in clinical practices. Traditional Chinese medicine is a treasure-house of China. This article summarizes the main mechanisms of AP treatment by traditional Chinese medicine and the progress of laboratory studies. It aims to help people recognize the multiple-target treatment effects and conspicuous efficacy of traditional Chinese medicine and promote the popularization of traditional Chinese medicine in AP treatment.
基金supported jointly by Innovation and Development Special Program of China Meteorological Administration (Grant Nos.CXFZ2024J006)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.42075056)+4 种基金Research Program from Science and Technology Committee of Shanghai (Grant Nos.23DZ204700,22ZR1476400)Shanghai Science and Technology Commission Project (Grant Nos.23DZ1204701)Ningbo Key R&D Program (Grant Nos.2023Z139)East China Regional Meteorological Science and Technology Collaborative Innovation Fund (Grant Nos.QYHZ202318)Special Fund Project of Basic Scientific Research Business Expenses of Shanghai Typhoon Institute, (Grant Nos.2024JB03).
文摘Super Typhoon Doksuri is a significant meteorological challenge for China this year due to its strong intensity and wide influence range,as well as significant and prolonged hazards.In this work,we studied Doksuri's main characteristics and assessed its forecast accuracy meticulously based on official forecasts,global models and regional models with lead times varying from 1 to 5 days.The results indicate that Typhoon Doksuri underwent rapid intensification and made landfall at 09:55 BJT on July 28 with a powerful intensity of 50 m s−1 confirmed by the real-time operational warnings issued by China Meteorological Administration(CMA).The typhoon also caused significant wind and rainfall impacts,with precipitation at several stations reaching historical extremes,ranking eighth in terms of total rainfall impact during the event.The evaluation of forecast accuracy for Doksuri suggests that Shanghai Multi-model Ensemble Method(SSTC)and Fengwu Model are the most effective for short-term track forecasts.Meanwhile,the forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)and United Kingdom Meteorological Office(UKMO)are optimal for long-term predictions.It is worth noting that objective forecasts systematically underestimate the typhoon maximum intensity.The objective forecast is terribly poor when there is a sudden change in intensity.CMA-National Digital Forecast System(CMA-NDFS)provides a better reference value for typhoon accumulated rainfall forecasts,and regional models perform well in forecasting extreme rainfall.The analyses above assist forecasters in pinpointing challenges within typhoon predictions and gaining a comprehensive insight into the performance of each model.This improves the effective application of model products.
基金supported by WMOTLFDPthe National Natural Science Foundations of China (No.41575108,No.41305049,No.41405060 and No.41275067)
文摘The forecasts of tropical cyclones(TC) in 2016 from 5 official guidances, 5 global models, 3 regional models and 6 ensemble systems were assessed to study the current capabilities of track and intensity forecasts for the western North Pacific. In 2016, the position errors for each official agency were under 85, 150 and 250 km at the lead times of 24, 48, and 72 h, respectively,indicating the performance of track forecasts was a little worse than that in 2015. For each lead time, decreases were seen for each quantile value of the global models from 2010 to 2015; however, this progress in forecasts was stagnated or was reversed in 2016, especially for long lead times.A new error tracking tool,called a "Track Error Rose",was used to visualize the spatial distributions of the track forecast error relative to the observed TC center. The results show that as lead time increases, the moving speed of most global model TC forecasts becomes slower than those of the observations, and the largest track error often appears to the south of the observation position. In 2016, JMA-GSM, NCEP-GFS, STI-GRAPES and UKMO-MetUM made considerable progress in their intensity forecasts at lead times of 24 and 48 h, and the EPS intensity forecasts made significant progress compared to those of 2015.
基金supported by WMOTLFDP, the National Natural Science Foundations of China (No.41575108, No.41305049, No.41405060 and No. 41275067)
文摘The operational track and intensity forecast errors of tropical cyclones(TCs) over the western North Pacific in 2015 were evaluated on the basis of RSMC-Tokyo's "best-track" dataset. The results showed that position errors for each official agency were under 80 km, 130 km, 180 km, 260 km and 370 km at 24, 48, 72, 96 and 120 hr lead time. Stepped decreases in the values of each quantile were made at every lead times and have been made by global models from 2010 to 2015, especially for long lead time. The results of the Track Forecast Integral Deviation(TFID) show a clearly decreasing trend for most global models, indicating that the TC forecast tracks became increasingly similar to the observations. In 2015, the intensity forecast skill scores for both global and regional models were almost negative. However, the skill of EPSs' intensity forecasting has made significant progress in the past year.
基金supported by the Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(No.LBY21H160001).
文摘Breast cancer is a malignant tumor that seriously endangers women's lives. The prognosis of breast cancer patients differs among molecular types. Compared with other subtypes, triple-negative breast cancer(TNBC) has been a research hotspot in recent years because of its high degree of malignancy, strong invasiveness, rapid progression, easy of recurrence,distant metastasis, poor prognosis, and high mortality. Many studies have found that long non-coding RNA(lncRNA) plays an important role in the occurrence, proliferation, migration, recurrence, chemotherapy resistance, and other characteristics of TNBC. Some lncRNAs are expected to become biomarkers in the diagnosis and prognosis of TNBC, and even new targets for its treatment. Based on a PubMed literature search, this review summarizes the progress in research on lncRNAs in TNBC and discusses their roles in TNBC diagnosis, prognosis, and chemotherapy with the hope of providing help for future research.
基金supported in part by the National Nature Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41875069 and 41975067)the National Key R&D Program of China(Nos.2018YFC1506406 and 2020YFE0201900)the Shanghai S&T Research Program(No.19dz1200101).
文摘The predictions for Super Typhoon Lekima(2019)have been evaluated from official forecasts,global models,regional models and ensemble prediction systems(EPSs)at lead times of 1–5 days.Track errors from most deterministic forecasts are smaller than their annual mean errors in 2019.Compared to the propagation speed,the propagation direction of Lekima(2019)was much easier to determine for the official agency and numerical weather prediction(NWP)models.The National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Ensemble Forecast System(NCEP-GEFS),Japan Meteorological Agency Global Ensemble Prediction System(JMA-GEPS)and Meteorological Service of Canada Ensemble System(MSC-CENS)are underdispersed,and the Shanghai Typhoon Institute Typhoon Ensemble Data Assimilation and Prediction System(STI-TEDAPS)is overdispersed,while the ensemble prediction system from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)shows adequate dispersion at all lead times.Most deterministic forecasting methods underestimated the intensity of Lekima(2019),especially for the rapid intensification period after Lekima(2019)entered the East China Sea.All of the deterministic forecasts performed well at predicting the first landfall point at Wenling,Zhejiang Province with a lead time of 24 and 48 h.
基金supported by the Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China (No.LBY21H160001).
文摘Sentinel lymph nodes(SLNs)are the first station of lymph nodes that extend from the breast tumor to the axillary lymphatic drainage.The pathological status of these LNs can predict that of the entire axillary lymph node.Therefore,the accurate identification of SLNs is necessary for sentinel lymph node biopsy(SLNB)to replace axillary lymph node dissection(ALND).The quality of life and prognosis of breast cancer patients are related to proper surgical treatment after the precise identification of SLNs.Some of the SLN tracers that have been identified include radioisotope,nano-carbon,indocyanine green(ICG),and methylene blue(MB).However,these tracers have certain limitations,such as pigmentation,radiation dangers,and the requirement for costly detection equipment.Ultrasound contrast agents(UCAs)have good specificity and sensitivity,and thus can compensate for some shortcomings of the mentioned tracers.This technique is also being applied to SLNB in patients with breast cancer,and can even provide an initial judgment on SLN status.Contrast-enhanced ultrasound(CEUS)has the advantages of high distinguishability,simple operation,no radiation harm,low cost,and accurate localization;therefore,it is expected to replace the traditional biopsy methods.In addition,it can significantly enhance the accuracy of SLN localization and shorten the operation time.
基金sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41705096,41775065)Key Program for International S&T Cooperation Projects of China(No.2017YFE0107700)+2 种基金National Key R&D Program of China(No.2017YFC1501604)Shanghai Science&Technology Research Program(No.19dz1200101)Fundamental Research Funds of the STI/CMA(No.2019JB06).
文摘Typhoon Lekima(2019)struck Zhejiang Province on 10 August 2019 as a supertyphoon,which severely impacted Zhejiang Province.The typhoon killed 45 people and left three others missing,and the total economic loss reached 40.71 billion yuan.This paper reports a postdisaster survey that focuses on the storm precipitation,flooding,landslides,and weather services associated with Typhoon Lekima(2019)along the southeastern coastline of Zhejiang Province.The survey was conducted by a joint survey team from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute and local meteorological bureaus from 26 to 28 August,2019,approximately two weeks after the disaster.Based on this survey and subsequent analyses of the results,we hope to develop countermeasures to prevent future tragedies.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.41275067National Basic Research Program of China (2015CB452806)+1 种基金Projects for Public Welfare (Meteorology) of China GYHY201506007WMO-TLFDP
文摘The track forecasts of fi ve ensemble prediction systems(JMA-WEPS,CMA-GEFS,ECMWF-EPS,NCEP-GEFS and MSC-CENS,respectively)in 2014 are evaluated in this paper.First,on the assumption of bivariate normal distribution,a probability ellipse based on ensemble spread is proposed to represent forecast uncertainties,and then the ellipse and ensemble mean are used to evaluate the fi ve different systems.It is found that the probability ellipse of ECMWF-EPS is smaller,with a high hit ratio,and its mean track errors are just a little larger than those of NCEP-GEFS within 48 h,meaning overall it outperforms the other four systems.Meanwhile,the performance of CMA-GEFS is found to be the poorest.
基金supported in part by the National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFC1506406 and 2020YFE0201900)the Research Program from Science and Technology Committee of Shanghai(Grant No.20ZR1469700)
文摘The forecasts of tropical cyclones(TC)in 2017 from five official guides,six global models,six regional models and six ensemble systems were assessed to study the current capability of track and intensity forecasts for the western North Pacific.The results show that the position errors for official agencies were under 100,165,265,335 and 425 km at the lead times of 24,48,72,96 and 120 h,respectively.As the forecast lead times increased,the forecasted TCs propagated,on average,too slow for most official guides.It is encouraging to note that all the models had positive skill scores,there is an overall upward trend in the skill scores of the models during from 2010 to 2017.Furthermore,both global and regional models’intensity forecast skill was increasing year by year from 2010 to 2017.For the ensemble prediction systems(EPSs),ECMWF-EPS was the best forecast system for the lead time less than 72 h,beyond the 72 h,the best EPS belong to NCEP-GEFS.