Development of a fine-resolution atmosphere-wave-ocean coupled forecasting model for the South China Sea and its adjacent seas

A 72-h fine-resolution atmosphere-wave-ocean coupled forecasting system was developed for the South China Sea and its adjacent seas. The forecasting model domain covers from from 15°S to 45°N in latitude and 99°E to135°E in longitude including the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea, the South China Sea and the Indonesian seas. To get precise initial conditions for the coupled forecasting model, the forecasting system conducts a 24-h hindcast simulation with data assimilation before forecasting. The Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter(EAKF) data assimilation method was adopted for the wave model MASNUM with assimilating Jason-2 significant wave height(SWH) data. The EAKF data assimilation method was also introduced to the ROMS model with assimilating sea surface temperature(SST), mean absolute dynamic topography(MADT) and Argo profiles data. To improve simulation of the structure of temperature and salinity, the vertical mixing scheme of the ocean model was improved by considering the surface wave induced vertical mixing and internal wave induced vertical mixing. The wave and current models were integrated from January 2014 to October 2015 driven by the ECMWF reanalysis 6 hourly mean dataset with data assimilation. Then the coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean forecasting system was carried out 14 months operational running since November 2015. The forecasting outputs include atmospheric forecast products, wave forecast products and ocean forecast products. A series of observation data are used to evaluate the coupled forecasting results, including the wind, SHW, ocean temperature and velocity.The forecasting results are in good agreement with observation data. The prediction practice for more than one year indicates that the coupled forecasting system performs stably and predict relatively accurate, which can support the shipping safety, the fisheries and the oil exploitation.

Arctic sea ice concentration and thickness data assimilation in the FIO-ESM climate forecast system

To improve the Arctic sea ice forecast skill of the First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model(FIO-ESM)climate forecast system,satellite-derived sea ice concentration and sea ice thickness from the Pan-Arctic IceOcean Modeling and Assimilation System(PIOMAS)are assimilated into this system,using the method of localized error subspace transform ensemble Kalman filter(LESTKF).Five-year(2014–2018)Arctic sea ice assimilation experiments and a 2-month near-real-time forecast in August 2018 were conducted to study the roles of ice data assimilation.Assimilation experiment results show that ice concentration assimilation can help to get better modeled ice concentration and ice extent.All the biases of ice concentration,ice cover,ice volume,and ice thickness can be reduced dramatically through ice concentration and thickness assimilation.The near-real-time forecast results indicate that ice data assimilation can improve the forecast skill significantly in the FIO-ESM climate forecast system.The forecasted Arctic integrated ice edge error is reduced by around 1/3 by sea ice data assimilation.Compared with the six near-real-time Arctic sea ice forecast results from the subseasonal-toseasonal(S2 S)Prediction Project,FIO-ESM climate forecast system with LESTKF ice data assimilation has relatively high Arctic sea ice forecast skill in 2018 summer sea ice forecast.Since sea ice thickness in the PIOMAS is updated in time,it is a good choice for data assimilation to improve sea ice prediction skills in the near-realtime Arctic sea ice seasonal prediction.

Seasonal prediction skills of FIO-ESM for North Pacific sea surface temperature and precipitation

The seasonal prediction of sea surface temperature(SST) and precipitation in the North Pacific based on the hindcast results of The First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model(FIO-ESM) is assessed in this study.The Ensemble Adjusted Kalman Filter assimilation scheme is used to generate initial conditions, which are shown to be reliable by comparison with the observations. Based on this comparison, we analyze the FIO-ESM 6-month hindcast results starting from each month of 1993–2013. The model exhibits high SST prediction skills over most of the North Pacific for two seasons in advance. Furthermore, it remains skillful at long lead times for midlatitudes. The reliable prediction of SST can transfer fairly well to precipitation prediction via air-sea interactions.The average skill of the North Pacific variability(NPV) index from 1 to 6 months lead is as high as 0.72(0.55) when El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation and NPV are in phase(out of phase) at initial conditions. The prediction skill of the NPV index of FIO-ESM is improved by 11.6%(23.6%) over the Climate Forecast System, Version 2. For seasonal dependence, the skill of FIO-ESM is higher than the skill of persistence prediction in the later period of prediction.

Construction parameters of graded sand-gravel foundation on seismic response law of nuclear safety grade underground corridor

The treatment of soft soil foundation under nuclear safety grade corridors with graded sand and gravel materials has a good development prospect.It is of great engineering value to explore the influence of construction parameters of graded sand and gravel foundation on the seismic response of gallery structures.Taking the safety grade underground corridor of a nuclear power plant as the engineering background,the equivalent linear method is used to consider the nonlinear dynamic characteristics of graded sand and gravel.The energy transfer boundary is applied at the truncation boundary to simulate the dissipation effect of scattered wave fluctuation energy and the ground motion input.The thicknessless contact element is introduced to consider the contact effect between the corridor structure and the graded sand and gravel foundation,so as to establish the calculation model of the dynamic interaction between the graded sand and gravel foundation and the corridor structure.Furthermore,the influence of the relative compactness and the foundation treatment depth on the seismic response of the corridor structure is studied,and the calculation results of the acceleration response spectrum and relative displacement of the corridor structure are analyzed.The calculation results show that the two construction parameters have different degrees of influence on the seismic response of corridor structure.The research results can provide reference for the engineering design and construction of underground corridors,and provide technical support for the application of graded gravel materials in soft soil foundation treatment.

Seasonal variations in wave-induced stress over global ocean based on China France Oceanography Satellite

Due to the scarcity of simultaneous observations on global-scale wind and wave spectra,there has been limited research on the characteristics of global wave-induced stress and wind stress with wave effects using observed wave spectra,particularly their seasonal variations.The China France Oceanography Satellite(CFOSAT)for the first time can simultaneously observe global sea surface wind and wave spectra,providing a solid data basis for investigating this difficult issue.In this study,the seasonal characteristics of global sea surface wave-induced stress and wind stress were analyzed by combining one-year simultaneous wind and wave observations from CFOSAT with a wave boundary layer model.Waveinduced stress was divided into wind-wave-induced stress and swell-induced stress based on different wave forms.The results showed that the wave-induced stress presented a significant inverse correlation with swell index.A higher swell index corresponded to a larger proportion of swell-induced stress,resulting in a decrease in wind stress,and vice versa,wind-wave-induced stress was dominant,resulting in an increase in wind stress.From spring to winter in the Northern Hemisphere(NH),wind-wave-induced stress predominated in the westerly belt of the Southern Hemisphere(SH),while swell-induced stress predominated near the equator.Further analysis revealed that the seasonal variation in wind-waveinduced stress in the SH was not significant,however,wind-wave-induced stress during the boreal summer was significantly lower than that in other seasons.The absolute value of swell-induced stress in the SH showed a trend of decrease and then increase from spring to winter.The percentage of increase or decrease in wind stress after considering the waveinduced stress showed a roughly symmetrical pattern between the NH and SH during the spring and autumn seasons,while the summer and winter seasons showed an asymmetrical feature.Wave-induced stress significantly modulated wind stress,resulting in zonal mean variations by up to±30%.This finding further highlights the important modulation of surface waves on wind stress at the global scale.