The objective of this study was to provide reliable basis for decision making for national food security and layout and structure adjustment of grain production in the northeastern China. The data of mean daily air te...The objective of this study was to provide reliable basis for decision making for national food security and layout and structure adjustment of grain production in the northeastern China. The data of mean daily air temperature of 1961-2009 from 106 meteorological stations in the northeastern China were chosen in this study. Using statistical methods and isoline method, the spatio-temporal changes of various decadal ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature and the climatic means of ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature were studied in this paper. The results showed that 1) The geo-graphical distribution of ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature in the northeastern China could be influenced directly by the latitude, longitude and altitude. If latitude moved one degree northward, the average decrease amplitude of the climatic means was 101.9℃ in the study area. 2) The means of decadal ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature rose since the 1980s, and their increase amplitudes became larger in the 1990s and the 2010s obviously. Compared with those of the 1980s, ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature increased by about 100℃ in the mountainous and plain areas in the 1990s; compared with those of the 1990s, ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature increased by about 200℃ in the Hulun Buir High Plain and the Songnen Plain, and 100℃ in the Sanjiang Plain and the Liaohe Plain in the 2010s. 3) The means of the decadal ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature for 106 meteorological stations in the northeastern China increased with the rate of 145.57℃/10yr in 1961-2009. 4) The climatic means of ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature increased from 1961-1990 to 1971-2000 and 1981-2009. Compared with the climatic mean of 1971-2000, that of 1981-2009 had increased by above 50℃ in most of the study area, even up to 156℃. Compared with the climatic mean of 1961-1990, that of 1981-2009 increased by above 100℃ in most parts of the study area, even up to 200℃. 5) The maximum northward shift, eastward and westward extension amplitudes of 3100℃, 3300℃ and 3500℃ isolines were larger among all isoli-nes for the climatic means of the three phases. Compared with the positions of the isolines of 1961-1990, those ampli-tudes of 3100℃ isoline of 1981-2009 were 145 km, 109 km and 64 km, respectively; those of 3300℃ isoline were 154 km, 54 km and 64 km, respectively; and the maximum northward shift of 3500℃ isoline was about 100 km.展开更多
Climate change is one of the most important challenges threatening agricultural grain yield and food security. Determining the factors influencing grain yield in Jilin Province and the weights of their contribution ar...Climate change is one of the most important challenges threatening agricultural grain yield and food security. Determining the factors influencing grain yield in Jilin Province and the weights of their contribution are a very important task, because Jilin Province is an important agriculture base in China. In this study, the accumulation factor sequence evaluating data method was used to analyze the climate and economic-technical factor contribution weights to grain yield and grain yield changes in each city of Jilin Province. Climate yield was also estimated to study the climate effect on the grain yield, and it was calculated in two ways:an improved algorithm and a traditional quadratic method. The results show that the climate and economic-technical factors have different contribution weights to grain yield in different cities in Jilin Province. The contribution weight of the climate factor to grain yield was 0.212-0.349, while that the economic-technical factor was 0.651-0.788. Furthermore, the changes of the climate factor contributing to grain yield changes accounted for 0.296-0.546, and the changes of the economic-technical factor accounted for 0.454-0.704. The weights of climate and economic-technical factor contributing to grain yield are very different between the eastern and western cities in Jilin Province, but their weights contributing to the grain yield change are similar in these cities. In general, the amount of fertilizer used per hectare (FUPH) is the main factor affecting grain yields and yield changes from 1980 to 2008. It is noted that when the FUPH growth rate stabilized after 1995, the effects of the climate factor on the grain yield become more obvious than before. The improved algorithm is effective for estimating climate yield in Jilin Province, and the climate yields were mostly between-500 kg/ha and 500 kg/ha, and showed a slightly rising trend in most cities.展开更多
Regional climate models have become the powerful tools for simulating regional climate and its change process and have been widely used in China. Using regional climate models, some research results have been obtained...Regional climate models have become the powerful tools for simulating regional climate and its change process and have been widely used in China. Using regional climate models, some research results have been obtained on the following aspects: 1) the numerical simulation of East Asian monsoon climate, including exceptional monsoon precipitation, summer precipitation distribution, East Asian circulation, multi-year climate average condition, summer rain belt and so on; 2) the simulation of arid climate of the western China, including thermal effect of the Qing- hai-Tibet Plateau, the plateau precipitation in the Qilian Mountains; and the impacts of greenhouse effects (CO2 dou- bling) upon climate in the western China; and 3) the simulation of the climate effect of underlying surface changes, in- cluding the effect of soil on climate formation, the influence of terrain on precipitation, the effect of regional soil deg- radation on regional climate, the effect of various underlying surfaces on regional climate, the effect of land-sea con- trast on the climate formulation, the influence of snow cover over the plateau regions on the regional climate, the effect of vegetation changes on the regional climate, etc. In the process of application of regional climate models, the prefer- ences of the models are improved so that better simulation results are gotten. At last, some suggestions are made about the application of regional climate models in regional climate research in the future.展开更多
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40771190)Special Fund for Meteorological Scientific Research in the Public Interest (No. GYHY200706030)
文摘The objective of this study was to provide reliable basis for decision making for national food security and layout and structure adjustment of grain production in the northeastern China. The data of mean daily air temperature of 1961-2009 from 106 meteorological stations in the northeastern China were chosen in this study. Using statistical methods and isoline method, the spatio-temporal changes of various decadal ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature and the climatic means of ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature were studied in this paper. The results showed that 1) The geo-graphical distribution of ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature in the northeastern China could be influenced directly by the latitude, longitude and altitude. If latitude moved one degree northward, the average decrease amplitude of the climatic means was 101.9℃ in the study area. 2) The means of decadal ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature rose since the 1980s, and their increase amplitudes became larger in the 1990s and the 2010s obviously. Compared with those of the 1980s, ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature increased by about 100℃ in the mountainous and plain areas in the 1990s; compared with those of the 1990s, ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature increased by about 200℃ in the Hulun Buir High Plain and the Songnen Plain, and 100℃ in the Sanjiang Plain and the Liaohe Plain in the 2010s. 3) The means of the decadal ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature for 106 meteorological stations in the northeastern China increased with the rate of 145.57℃/10yr in 1961-2009. 4) The climatic means of ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature increased from 1961-1990 to 1971-2000 and 1981-2009. Compared with the climatic mean of 1971-2000, that of 1981-2009 had increased by above 50℃ in most of the study area, even up to 156℃. Compared with the climatic mean of 1961-1990, that of 1981-2009 increased by above 100℃ in most parts of the study area, even up to 200℃. 5) The maximum northward shift, eastward and westward extension amplitudes of 3100℃, 3300℃ and 3500℃ isolines were larger among all isoli-nes for the climatic means of the three phases. Compared with the positions of the isolines of 1961-1990, those ampli-tudes of 3100℃ isoline of 1981-2009 were 145 km, 109 km and 64 km, respectively; those of 3300℃ isoline were 154 km, 54 km and 64 km, respectively; and the maximum northward shift of 3500℃ isoline was about 100 km.
基金Under the auspices of Knowledge Innovation Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.KSCX1-YW-09-13)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.07Z7601MZ1)
文摘Climate change is one of the most important challenges threatening agricultural grain yield and food security. Determining the factors influencing grain yield in Jilin Province and the weights of their contribution are a very important task, because Jilin Province is an important agriculture base in China. In this study, the accumulation factor sequence evaluating data method was used to analyze the climate and economic-technical factor contribution weights to grain yield and grain yield changes in each city of Jilin Province. Climate yield was also estimated to study the climate effect on the grain yield, and it was calculated in two ways:an improved algorithm and a traditional quadratic method. The results show that the climate and economic-technical factors have different contribution weights to grain yield in different cities in Jilin Province. The contribution weight of the climate factor to grain yield was 0.212-0.349, while that the economic-technical factor was 0.651-0.788. Furthermore, the changes of the climate factor contributing to grain yield changes accounted for 0.296-0.546, and the changes of the economic-technical factor accounted for 0.454-0.704. The weights of climate and economic-technical factor contributing to grain yield are very different between the eastern and western cities in Jilin Province, but their weights contributing to the grain yield change are similar in these cities. In general, the amount of fertilizer used per hectare (FUPH) is the main factor affecting grain yields and yield changes from 1980 to 2008. It is noted that when the FUPH growth rate stabilized after 1995, the effects of the climate factor on the grain yield become more obvious than before. The improved algorithm is effective for estimating climate yield in Jilin Province, and the climate yields were mostly between-500 kg/ha and 500 kg/ha, and showed a slightly rising trend in most cities.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40771190)Foundation of Research Start-upfor Winner of President Scholarship of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. C08B9)Foundation of Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. WELF-2004-B-001)
文摘Regional climate models have become the powerful tools for simulating regional climate and its change process and have been widely used in China. Using regional climate models, some research results have been obtained on the following aspects: 1) the numerical simulation of East Asian monsoon climate, including exceptional monsoon precipitation, summer precipitation distribution, East Asian circulation, multi-year climate average condition, summer rain belt and so on; 2) the simulation of arid climate of the western China, including thermal effect of the Qing- hai-Tibet Plateau, the plateau precipitation in the Qilian Mountains; and the impacts of greenhouse effects (CO2 dou- bling) upon climate in the western China; and 3) the simulation of the climate effect of underlying surface changes, in- cluding the effect of soil on climate formation, the influence of terrain on precipitation, the effect of regional soil deg- radation on regional climate, the effect of various underlying surfaces on regional climate, the effect of land-sea con- trast on the climate formulation, the influence of snow cover over the plateau regions on the regional climate, the effect of vegetation changes on the regional climate, etc. In the process of application of regional climate models, the prefer- ences of the models are improved so that better simulation results are gotten. At last, some suggestions are made about the application of regional climate models in regional climate research in the future.
