以317份贵州香禾糯种质资源为试验材料,10份籼稻材料为对照,采用1 K mGPS SNP芯片对供试材料的遗传多样性和遗传结构进行分析,在此基础上构建贵州香禾糯核心种质并进行评价。结果表明,1 K mGPS SNP芯片在317份香禾糯材料中共获得731个...以317份贵州香禾糯种质资源为试验材料,10份籼稻材料为对照,采用1 K mGPS SNP芯片对供试材料的遗传多样性和遗传结构进行分析,在此基础上构建贵州香禾糯核心种质并进行评价。结果表明,1 K mGPS SNP芯片在317份香禾糯材料中共获得731个良好多态性SNP位点,多态性标记比例为17.89%,最小等位基因频率为0.0505~0.5000,观测杂合度为0~0.6940,期望杂合度为0.0959~0.5000,多态性信息含量为0.0913~0.5736。基于IBS遗传距离的NJ聚类分析将327份水稻材料分为籼、粳两个亚群,其中317份贵州香禾糯划分为粳稻亚群。利用Core Hunter 3对香禾糯原种质设置5%、10%、15%、20%、25%、30%等6种抽样比例,遗传多样性参数的t检验表明,15%的抽样比例即可保持遗传多样性参数的最大化,同时剔除了许多冗余材料,最终确定47份香禾糯资源为构建的核心种质。展开更多
Integrated assessment models and coupled earth system models both have their limitations in understanding the interactions between human activity and the physical earth system. In this paper, a new human--earth system...Integrated assessment models and coupled earth system models both have their limitations in understanding the interactions between human activity and the physical earth system. In this paper, a new human--earth system model, BNU- HESM1.0, constructed by combining the economic and climate damage components of the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate Change and Economy to the BNU-ESM model, is introduced. The ability of BNU-HESM1.0 in simulating the global CO2 concentration and surface temperature is also evaluated. We find that, compared to observation, BNU-HESM1.0 underestimates the global CO2 concentration and its rising trend during 1965-2005, due to the uncertainty in the economic components. However, the surface temperature simulated by BNU-HESM1.0 is much closer to observation, resulting from the overestimates of surface temperature by the original BNU-ESM model. The uncertainty of BNU-ESM falls within the range of present earth system uncertainty, so it is the economic and climate damage component of BNU-HESM 1.0 that needs to be improved through further study. However, the main purpose of this paper is to introduce a new approach to investigate the complex relationship between human activity and the earth system. It is hoped that it will inspire further ideas that prove valuable in guiding human activities appropriate for a sustainable future climate.展开更多
Based on observations and 12 simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） models, cli- matic extremes and their changes over China in the past and under the future scenarios of three Repres...Based on observations and 12 simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） models, cli- matic extremes and their changes over China in the past and under the future scenarios of three Representative Concentration Pathways （RCPs） are analyzed. In observations, frost days （FD） and low-temperature threshold days （TN10P） show a de- creasing trend, and summer days （SU）, high-temperature threshold days （TX90P）, heavy precipitation days （R20）, and the contribution of heavy precipitation days （P95T） show an increasing trend. Most models are able to simulate the main char- acteristics of most extreme indices. In particular, the mean FD and TX90P are reproduced the best, and the basic trends of FD, TN10P, SU and TX90P are represented. For the FD and SU indexes, most models show good ability in capturing the spatial differences between the mean state of the periods 1986--2005 and 1961-80; however, for other indices, the simulation abilities for spatial disparity are less satisfactory and need to be improved. Under the high emissions scenario of RCP8.5, the century-scale linear changes of the multi-model ensemble （MME） for FD, SU, TN10P, TX90P, R20 and P95T are -46.9, 46.0, -27.1, 175.4, and 2.9 days, and 9.9%, respectively; and the spatial change scope for each index is consistent with the emissions intensity. Due to the complexities of physical process pararneterizations and the limitation of forcing data, great uncertainty still exists with respect to the simulation of climatic extremes.展开更多
文摘以317份贵州香禾糯种质资源为试验材料,10份籼稻材料为对照,采用1 K mGPS SNP芯片对供试材料的遗传多样性和遗传结构进行分析,在此基础上构建贵州香禾糯核心种质并进行评价。结果表明,1 K mGPS SNP芯片在317份香禾糯材料中共获得731个良好多态性SNP位点,多态性标记比例为17.89%,最小等位基因频率为0.0505~0.5000,观测杂合度为0~0.6940,期望杂合度为0.0959~0.5000,多态性信息含量为0.0913~0.5736。基于IBS遗传距离的NJ聚类分析将327份水稻材料分为籼、粳两个亚群,其中317份贵州香禾糯划分为粳稻亚群。利用Core Hunter 3对香禾糯原种质设置5%、10%、15%、20%、25%、30%等6种抽样比例,遗传多样性参数的t检验表明,15%的抽样比例即可保持遗传多样性参数的最大化,同时剔除了许多冗余材料,最终确定47份香禾糯资源为构建的核心种质。
基金funded by the National Key Program for Global Change Research of China(Grant No.2010CB950504)the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(Grant No. 2012CB95570001)the nationallevel major cultivation project of Guangdong Province entitled:"The construction and application of coupled earth system and social economic models"(Grant No.2014GKXM058)
文摘Integrated assessment models and coupled earth system models both have their limitations in understanding the interactions between human activity and the physical earth system. In this paper, a new human--earth system model, BNU- HESM1.0, constructed by combining the economic and climate damage components of the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate Change and Economy to the BNU-ESM model, is introduced. The ability of BNU-HESM1.0 in simulating the global CO2 concentration and surface temperature is also evaluated. We find that, compared to observation, BNU-HESM1.0 underestimates the global CO2 concentration and its rising trend during 1965-2005, due to the uncertainty in the economic components. However, the surface temperature simulated by BNU-HESM1.0 is much closer to observation, resulting from the overestimates of surface temperature by the original BNU-ESM model. The uncertainty of BNU-ESM falls within the range of present earth system uncertainty, so it is the economic and climate damage component of BNU-HESM 1.0 that needs to be improved through further study. However, the main purpose of this paper is to introduce a new approach to investigate the complex relationship between human activity and the earth system. It is hoped that it will inspire further ideas that prove valuable in guiding human activities appropriate for a sustainable future climate.
基金funded by the National Key Program for Global Change Research of China (Grant No.2010CB950500)the General Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.41275108)the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (Grant No.2010AA012305)
文摘Based on observations and 12 simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） models, cli- matic extremes and their changes over China in the past and under the future scenarios of three Representative Concentration Pathways （RCPs） are analyzed. In observations, frost days （FD） and low-temperature threshold days （TN10P） show a de- creasing trend, and summer days （SU）, high-temperature threshold days （TX90P）, heavy precipitation days （R20）, and the contribution of heavy precipitation days （P95T） show an increasing trend. Most models are able to simulate the main char- acteristics of most extreme indices. In particular, the mean FD and TX90P are reproduced the best, and the basic trends of FD, TN10P, SU and TX90P are represented. For the FD and SU indexes, most models show good ability in capturing the spatial differences between the mean state of the periods 1986--2005 and 1961-80; however, for other indices, the simulation abilities for spatial disparity are less satisfactory and need to be improved. Under the high emissions scenario of RCP8.5, the century-scale linear changes of the multi-model ensemble （MME） for FD, SU, TN10P, TX90P, R20 and P95T are -46.9, 46.0, -27.1, 175.4, and 2.9 days, and 9.9%, respectively; and the spatial change scope for each index is consistent with the emissions intensity. Due to the complexities of physical process pararneterizations and the limitation of forcing data, great uncertainty still exists with respect to the simulation of climatic extremes.
