Understandinng how futurre climate chaange impacts glaciers is crrucial to suustainable water supplies aand water resource managements..A calibrated ddegree-day glaacier mass baalance model and a volume-aarea scaling ...Understandinng how futurre climate chaange impacts glaciers is crrucial to suustainable water supplies aand water resource managements..A calibrated ddegree-day glaacier mass baalance model and a volume-aarea scaling approach wwere coupledd to quantitativeely assess thhe effect off future climate change onn the ice volume in thhe Beida RRiver catchment,Northeast TTibetan Plateeau.The ressults show that future mean mass loss off all glaciers will reach to 0.6628±0.058,00.676±0.058 aand 0.765±0.074×10^(8)m^(3)yr^(-1) under RCP 2.6,4.5 and 8.5,respectivvely,with 81%-996.2% ice voluume losses by the end off 21^(st) century.Fuuture mass balance tennds to be mmore negative unntil 2050 undder RCP 2.6,uuntil 2060 unnder RCP 4.5,annd until 21000 under RCPP 8.5.Glacierrs in the catchmment are likely experienciing or will soon experience the most inteense ice loss,,which may lead to negativee impact onn water resoources after the tipping poiint around 2015-2035.IIn the RCP 8.5 scenario,thhe summer mass balancee decreases with elevvation at the altitudinal beelt of 4650~55050 m a.s.l.duee to the variaation of elevaation structurre caused by acceelerating glaciers shrrinkage.Fuurther,the simulations aree sensitive tto the parammeterization scheme of glaccier area andd air tempeerature.The projjections havee the potentiaal to significanntly improve ourr understandiings of glacieer regime oveer data-poor regiions.展开更多
A close correlation between δ 18O in the shallow ice core in Dasuopu Glacier of the Tibetan Plateau and large scale SST is found. The marked correlated regions are mainly distributed in the ocean currents of the Ocea...A close correlation between δ 18O in the shallow ice core in Dasuopu Glacier of the Tibetan Plateau and large scale SST is found. The marked correlated regions are mainly distributed in the ocean currents of the Oceans. The SST in different sea regions influences the precipitation and vapor origin of Dasuopu Glacier by way of its actions on atmospheric circulation. When the circulation situation favoring the transportation of oceanic vapor towards the glaciers of the southern Plateau appears, the δ18O in precipitation decreases, when that infavoring the transportation of oceanic vapor but favoring the transportation of the inland vapor towards the glaciers appears. the δ 18O in precipitation increases. Among various SST and circulation factors influencing δi8O in the ice core, the mean SST anomalies in the region A5 of the Northern Pacific Current and the position of the north boundary of Subtropical high over the South China Ocean have the important impact on the δ 18O in Dasuopu Glacier during midwinter,the mean SST anomalies in the region B of the Northern Pacific Current, the center position of the arctic vortex over the Northern Hemisphere and the strength of the arctic vortex over the Pacific have the important impact on the δ 18O in the Dasuopu Glacier during midsummer. The variations of these factors restrict the magnitude of δ 18O in the ice core, and their influence all have the omen.展开更多
基于2011-2016年七一冰川的野外观测资料,结合气象站数据及1975-2015年的遥感影像,分析了冰川末端变化、物质平衡时空变化特征及其对气候变化的敏感性,结果表明:1975年以来,七一冰川末端持续退缩235 m,平均退缩速率为5.9 m/a,冰川面积减...基于2011-2016年七一冰川的野外观测资料,结合气象站数据及1975-2015年的遥感影像,分析了冰川末端变化、物质平衡时空变化特征及其对气候变化的敏感性,结果表明:1975年以来,七一冰川末端持续退缩235 m,平均退缩速率为5.9 m/a,冰川面积减少0.13 km^2(4.5%)。2011-2016年,七一冰川的平均物质平衡为-476 mm w.e.,平均ELA为4941 m a.s.l.,物质平衡梯度为2.9 mm/m。从季节变化看,受风吹雪和冰面升华影响,11月至次年3月冰川呈负平衡;4月和9月物质平衡受降水控制,随海拔变化呈现降水效应;强消融期(6-8月)物质平衡随海拔升高线性增加;消融期末由9月初延后至9月底。敏感性分析结果表明,物质平衡对气温变化的敏感性为-178.7 mm w.e.℃^-1a^-1,对降水变化的敏感性为+2.93 mm w.e.mm^-1a^-1。即61 mm的降水增加才能弥补暖季气温升高1℃引起的冰川净物质损失。展开更多
After the North and South Poles,the Third Pole is the highland core of Asia and includes the Hindu-Kush,Karakorum,Himalayas,Tibetan Plateau,and all the mountain ranges that surround it.This region provides water resou...After the North and South Poles,the Third Pole is the highland core of Asia and includes the Hindu-Kush,Karakorum,Himalayas,Tibetan Plateau,and all the mountain ranges that surround it.This region provides water resources and ecosystem services to billions of people in Asia.It is well accepted that the region has undergone climate warming that is larger than the means of the Northern Hemisphere and other regions at similar latitudes over the last decades.This resulted in some environmental changes,having huge implications for millions of people living in the Third Pole region and downstream areas.展开更多
基金funded by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(STEP,Grant No.2019QZKK0201)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41801034)+2 种基金the“Key Research Programs in Frontier Sciences”of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(QYZDY-SSW-DQC003)the Basic Research Program of Shanxi Province(202203021211258,20210302123248)the Open Research Fund of Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environmental Changes and Land Surface Processes,Chinese Academy of Sciences(TEL201801)。
文摘Understandinng how futurre climate chaange impacts glaciers is crrucial to suustainable water supplies aand water resource managements..A calibrated ddegree-day glaacier mass baalance model and a volume-aarea scaling approach wwere coupledd to quantitativeely assess thhe effect off future climate change onn the ice volume in thhe Beida RRiver catchment,Northeast TTibetan Plateeau.The ressults show that future mean mass loss off all glaciers will reach to 0.6628±0.058,00.676±0.058 aand 0.765±0.074×10^(8)m^(3)yr^(-1) under RCP 2.6,4.5 and 8.5,respectivvely,with 81%-996.2% ice voluume losses by the end off 21^(st) century.Fuuture mass balance tennds to be mmore negative unntil 2050 undder RCP 2.6,uuntil 2060 unnder RCP 4.5,annd until 21000 under RCPP 8.5.Glacierrs in the catchmment are likely experienciing or will soon experience the most inteense ice loss,,which may lead to negativee impact onn water resoources after the tipping poiint around 2015-2035.IIn the RCP 8.5 scenario,thhe summer mass balancee decreases with elevvation at the altitudinal beelt of 4650~55050 m a.s.l.duee to the variaation of elevaation structurre caused by acceelerating glaciers shrrinkage.Fuurther,the simulations aree sensitive tto the parammeterization scheme of glaccier area andd air tempeerature.The projjections havee the potentiaal to significanntly improve ourr understandiings of glacieer regime oveer data-poor regiions.
文摘A close correlation between δ 18O in the shallow ice core in Dasuopu Glacier of the Tibetan Plateau and large scale SST is found. The marked correlated regions are mainly distributed in the ocean currents of the Oceans. The SST in different sea regions influences the precipitation and vapor origin of Dasuopu Glacier by way of its actions on atmospheric circulation. When the circulation situation favoring the transportation of oceanic vapor towards the glaciers of the southern Plateau appears, the δ18O in precipitation decreases, when that infavoring the transportation of oceanic vapor but favoring the transportation of the inland vapor towards the glaciers appears. the δ 18O in precipitation increases. Among various SST and circulation factors influencing δi8O in the ice core, the mean SST anomalies in the region A5 of the Northern Pacific Current and the position of the north boundary of Subtropical high over the South China Ocean have the important impact on the δ 18O in Dasuopu Glacier during midwinter,the mean SST anomalies in the region B of the Northern Pacific Current, the center position of the arctic vortex over the Northern Hemisphere and the strength of the arctic vortex over the Pacific have the important impact on the δ 18O in the Dasuopu Glacier during midsummer. The variations of these factors restrict the magnitude of δ 18O in the ice core, and their influence all have the omen.
文摘基于2011-2016年七一冰川的野外观测资料,结合气象站数据及1975-2015年的遥感影像,分析了冰川末端变化、物质平衡时空变化特征及其对气候变化的敏感性,结果表明:1975年以来,七一冰川末端持续退缩235 m,平均退缩速率为5.9 m/a,冰川面积减少0.13 km^2(4.5%)。2011-2016年,七一冰川的平均物质平衡为-476 mm w.e.,平均ELA为4941 m a.s.l.,物质平衡梯度为2.9 mm/m。从季节变化看,受风吹雪和冰面升华影响,11月至次年3月冰川呈负平衡;4月和9月物质平衡受降水控制,随海拔变化呈现降水效应;强消融期(6-8月)物质平衡随海拔升高线性增加;消融期末由9月初延后至9月底。敏感性分析结果表明,物质平衡对气温变化的敏感性为-178.7 mm w.e.℃^-1a^-1,对降水变化的敏感性为+2.93 mm w.e.mm^-1a^-1。即61 mm的降水增加才能弥补暖季气温升高1℃引起的冰川净物质损失。
文摘After the North and South Poles,the Third Pole is the highland core of Asia and includes the Hindu-Kush,Karakorum,Himalayas,Tibetan Plateau,and all the mountain ranges that surround it.This region provides water resources and ecosystem services to billions of people in Asia.It is well accepted that the region has undergone climate warming that is larger than the means of the Northern Hemisphere and other regions at similar latitudes over the last decades.This resulted in some environmental changes,having huge implications for millions of people living in the Third Pole region and downstream areas.
