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基于监测曲线特征点分析的阶跃型滑坡预警方法
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作者 陈瑶 叶润青 +2 位作者 易庆林 俎全磊 吴震 《华南地质》 CAS 2023年第3期523-535,共13页
在三峡库区专业监测滑坡中,部分滑坡受到库水或者降雨等外界因素影响,其累计位移-时间曲线表现出明显的“阶跃型”特征。直接使用改进切线角对阶跃型滑坡位移监测曲线进行预警分析,其改进切线角预警值可能在变形曲线陡增阶段高于实际预... 在三峡库区专业监测滑坡中,部分滑坡受到库水或者降雨等外界因素影响,其累计位移-时间曲线表现出明显的“阶跃型”特征。直接使用改进切线角对阶跃型滑坡位移监测曲线进行预警分析,其改进切线角预警值可能在变形曲线陡增阶段高于实际预警级别,增加虚警率。为了准确判别阶跃型滑坡的变形阶段及发展趋势,本文以白家包滑坡和谭家湾滑坡为例,分析滑坡监测历史数据及其影响因素,采用斜率单变点分析法和AMPD法对“阶跃型”累计位移-时间曲线进行特征点提取,结合Hill函数形成特征点拟合曲线,在此基础上利用改进切线角对拟合曲线进行滑坡变形阶段划分及预警分析。结果表明,当前白家包滑坡总体上处于蠕滑变形阶段,预警级别为无预警;谭家湾滑坡处于中加速变形阶段,预警级别为橙色预警。研究表明,本文方法可以很好抑制变形曲线的阶跃特征对预警级别判定带来的影响,更准确地判定滑坡变形阶段。 展开更多
关键词 三峡库区 滑坡 阶跃型 曲线拟合 监测预警
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长江三峡库区木鱼包滑坡地表变形规律分析 被引量:29
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作者 邓茂林 易庆林 +3 位作者 韩蓓 周剑 李卓骏 张富灵 《岩土力学》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2019年第8期3145-3152,3166,共9页
三峡库区木鱼包滑坡自2006年实施专业监测以来,一直持续变形,对三峡大坝工程和长江航道造成巨大威胁。通过多次野外地质调查资料、长期现场巡查、人工GPS位移监测数据、近1年的全自动监测数据等,深入分析该滑坡在库水涨落及降雨条件下... 三峡库区木鱼包滑坡自2006年实施专业监测以来,一直持续变形,对三峡大坝工程和长江航道造成巨大威胁。通过多次野外地质调查资料、长期现场巡查、人工GPS位移监测数据、近1年的全自动监测数据等,深入分析该滑坡在库水涨落及降雨条件下的变形特征、演化规律及变形机制。结果表明,滑坡坡体结构、岩性及地质构造等地质因素控制了木鱼包滑坡的变形,库水位是主要的驱动因素。库水位上升过程中,库水位由145m升到155m左右,月位移量为最小值;动水压力向坡内,滑坡变形最小;库水位155m上升至175m期间,库水入渗前部坡体,对滑坡前部抗滑段形成浮托减重效应,变形有所增加。库水位由175m下降到170m左右,累积位移形成阶跃,坡受向坡外动水压力和浮托减重效应作用,月位移达最大值。库水位由170m降到145m期间,浮托减重效应作用减小,月位移量降低。目前,木鱼包滑坡变形趋势减小,产生大规模滑动的可能性较小,但须进一步加强监测和机制研究。 展开更多
关键词 木鱼包滑坡 位移阶跃 浮托减重效应 变形规律
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三峡库区靠椅状土质滑坡变形特征及机制分析 被引量:21
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作者 邓茂林 周剑 +3 位作者 易庆林 张富灵 韩蓓 李卓骏 《岩土工程学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2020年第7期1296-1303,共8页
自三峡库区蓄水以来,库区不少滑坡监测位移–时间曲线呈台阶状阶跃变化,靠椅状土质滑坡尤为明显,此现象加大了滑坡稳定状态的识别度,严重影响滑坡的预警预报。以白家包滑坡为例,通过多次野外地质调查、长期现场巡查、十多年的GPS位移监... 自三峡库区蓄水以来,库区不少滑坡监测位移–时间曲线呈台阶状阶跃变化,靠椅状土质滑坡尤为明显,此现象加大了滑坡稳定状态的识别度,严重影响滑坡的预警预报。以白家包滑坡为例,通过多次野外地质调查、长期现场巡查、十多年的GPS位移监测数据、1a多全自动监测数据及滑坡学相关理论等,较深入研究了在库水升降及降雨条件下该滑坡的变形演化规律。结果表明,在汛期及库水位升降时滑坡发生变形,库水位下降为诱发变形的主要因素,年位移量在35~250 mm,历年位移曲线呈"W"型波动,一次跃阶30~180 mm位移量集中在20~30 d完成。库水位下降25m水位高程为150m左右时,位移跃阶启动。库水位下降至145m后1周,跃阶日位移达最大值5~8mm/d。降雨只在库水位下降期间对滑坡的变形有一定的助推效果,在库水位上升期间,几乎没有影响。受靠椅状等坡体结构特征制约,在库水位升降作用下坡体会反复变形,但难以发生整体性大破坏。 展开更多
关键词 靠椅状土质滑坡 位移跃阶 白家包滑坡 变形机制 库水位
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大型岩质水库滑坡复活变形过程的影响因素分析 被引量:2
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作者 夏庄凡者 宋琨 +1 位作者 易庆林 刘艺梁 《水电能源科学》 北大核心 2020年第8期114-117,113,共5页
鉴于识别处于复杂环境下的滑坡体变形影响因素是目前滑坡变形机理研究的重点。以三峡库区木鱼包滑坡为例,基于监测数据识别出滑坡变形的阶跃段,统计得出阶跃段往往出现于高库水位阶段,约在175.0~165.0m之间波动。应用格兰杰因果检验得... 鉴于识别处于复杂环境下的滑坡体变形影响因素是目前滑坡变形机理研究的重点。以三峡库区木鱼包滑坡为例,基于监测数据识别出滑坡变形的阶跃段,统计得出阶跃段往往出现于高库水位阶段,约在175.0~165.0m之间波动。应用格兰杰因果检验得出库水位高程变化将导致滑坡阶跃段的出现,并进一步以Geo-Slope模拟实际库水位波动与不同库水位变化速率下滑坡稳定性的变化。结果表明,木鱼包滑坡的阶跃段出现与稳定系数下降段相对应,均处于库水位的高水位阶段,且库水位处于172~175m时滑坡稳定性系数将接近最小值,确定了滑坡复活变形的影响因素是高库水位阶段。研究成果对滑坡的复活变形机理研究及防灾预警均具有重要意义。 展开更多
关键词 木鱼包滑坡 库水位影响 变形规律 影响因素
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Deformation characteristics and thresholds of the Tanjiawan landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area,China 被引量:1
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作者 ZHANG Fu-ling DENG Mao-lin +4 位作者 yi qing-lin LU Shu-qiang ZHENG Wei-jun HUANG Hai-feng ZHU Xing 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2022年第5期1370-1385,共16页
Since the first impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR)in China in 2003,more than 5000 landslides including potential landslides were identified.In this paper,a deep-seated active landslide in TGR area was anal... Since the first impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR)in China in 2003,more than 5000 landslides including potential landslides were identified.In this paper,a deep-seated active landslide in TGR area was analyzed.Fourteen years’monitoring data and field investigations from 2006 to 2020 were used to analyze the deformation characteristics,influencing factors,and meteohydrological thresholds.The landslide showed a none-overall periodic movement pattern featuring acceleration during long-duration rainfall and rapid transition to constant creep after rainfall events.Two secondary sliding masses,No.1 and No.2,were defined via field investigation.The reservoir has no impact on the deformation whereas long-duration-low-intensity rainfall is the main factor.At present,the cumulative displacements of the main sliding mass range from 0.9 to 3.2 m,and the deformation during the rainy season is gradually increasing.The boundary of this landslide was formed,and the boundary of No.2 sliding mass became obvious.The probability of the failure of sliding mass No.2 is very high under the conditions of continuous rainfall.The 15-day antecedent rainfall combined with 4-day cumulative rainfall could be the rainfall threshold which could be associated with the groundwater level S1 of 294 m above sea level for forecasting large deformation of Tanjiawan landslide. 展开更多
关键词 Three Gorges Reservoir Deformation characteristics Deep-seated landslide Rainfall threshold Groundwater threshold
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A new numerical model of ring shear tester for shear band soil considering friction-induced thermal pressurization
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作者 ZHAO Neng-hao SONG Kun +1 位作者 ZHANG Rong-tang yi qing-lin 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2022年第11期3302-3313,共12页
In this study,a new numerical model of ring shear tester for shear band soil of landslide was established.The special feature of this model is that it considers the mechanism of friction-induced thermal pressurization... In this study,a new numerical model of ring shear tester for shear band soil of landslide was established.The special feature of this model is that it considers the mechanism of friction-induced thermal pressurization,which is potentially an important cause of high-speed catastrophic landslides.The key to the construction of this numerical ring shear model is to realize the THM(thermo-hydro-mechanical)dynamic coupling of soil particles,which includes the processes of frictional heating,thermal pressurization,and strength softening during shearing of solid particles.All of these are completed by using discrete element method.Based on this new model,the characteristics of shear stress change with shear displacement,as well as the variation of temperature and pore pressure in the specimen,are studied at shear rates of 0.055 m/s,0.06 m/s,0.109 m/s and 1.09 m/s,respectively.The results show that the peak strength and residual strength of specimen are significantly reduced when the mechanism of frictioninduced thermal pressurization is considered.The greater the shear rate is,the higher the temperature as well as the pore pressure is.The effect of shear rate on the shear strength is bidirectional.The simulation results demonstrate that this model can effectively simulate the mechanism of friction-induced thermal pressurization of shear band soil during ring shear process,and the shear strength softening in the process.The new numerical ring shear model established in this study is of great significance for studying the dynamic mechanism of high-speed catastrophic landslides. 展开更多
关键词 Ring shear model Discrete element method THM coupling Frictional heating Thermal pressurization
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