In order to explore the influence of anthropogenic land use on the climate system during the last mil- lennium, a set of experiments is performed with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity—— the McGill Pa...In order to explore the influence of anthropogenic land use on the climate system during the last mil- lennium, a set of experiments is performed with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity—— the McGill Paleoclimate Model (MPM-2). The present paper mainly focuses on biogeophysical effects of historical land cover changes. A dynamic scenario of deforestation is described based on changes in cropland fraction (RF99). The model simulates a decrease in global mean annual temperature in the range of 0.09-0.16℃, especially 0.14-0.22℃ in Northern Hemisphere during the last 300 years. The responses of climate system to GHGs concentration changes are also calculated for comparisons. Now, afforestation is becoming an important choice for the enhancement of terrestrial carbon sequestration and adjustment of regional climate. The results indicate that biogeophysical effects of land cover changes cannot be neglected in the assessments of climate change.展开更多
The MPM-2,an Earth system model of intermediate complexity,is employed to study the climate sys-tem response to natural forcings during the pre-industrial era (1000-1800 AD),with a special focus on the surface air tem...The MPM-2,an Earth system model of intermediate complexity,is employed to study the climate sys-tem response to natural forcings during the pre-industrial era (1000-1800 AD),with a special focus on the surface air temperature (SAT) evolution. Solar radiation and volcanism are the primary natural forcings during this period. In the MPM-2,the solar radiation forcing determines the long-term trend of the climate system change,and the volcanic forcing intensifies (weakens) this trend. Ultimately,the combination of solar and volcanic forcings dominates the long-term changes of the climate system. These results are in good agreement with other model data or temperature reconstructions. Natural forcings can well explain the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). At the large regional scale,the SAT response to natural forcings is almost coincident with that of the Northern Hemisphere. Based on MPM-2 model results,it is concluded that the global climate gradually became cold during the pre-industrial era. However,MPM-2 model results substantially correlate with recon-structed solar and volcanic forcings. Namely,to some great extent,these results strongly rely on the forcing series data we choose. Therefore,in order to accurately simulate the secular variation of the historical climate,it is very important to reconstruct well the solar radiation change and volcanic forc-ing data are well reconstructed for the past 10000 years,at least for the past 2000 years,in addition to the model improvements. The sensitivity study on the abrupt solar radiation change indicates that the increased solar radiation not only strengthens the nonlinear response of SAT,but intensifies the global hydrological cycle. At the same time,the biosphere is also affected obviously.展开更多
基金Supported by the Project of "Aridification over Northern China and Human Adapta-tion" (Grant No. 2006 CB400500)
文摘In order to explore the influence of anthropogenic land use on the climate system during the last mil- lennium, a set of experiments is performed with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity—— the McGill Paleoclimate Model (MPM-2). The present paper mainly focuses on biogeophysical effects of historical land cover changes. A dynamic scenario of deforestation is described based on changes in cropland fraction (RF99). The model simulates a decrease in global mean annual temperature in the range of 0.09-0.16℃, especially 0.14-0.22℃ in Northern Hemisphere during the last 300 years. The responses of climate system to GHGs concentration changes are also calculated for comparisons. Now, afforestation is becoming an important choice for the enhancement of terrestrial carbon sequestration and adjustment of regional climate. The results indicate that biogeophysical effects of land cover changes cannot be neglected in the assessments of climate change.
基金Supported by the Project of "Aridification over Northern China and Human Adapta-tion" (Grant No.2006 CB400500)
文摘The MPM-2,an Earth system model of intermediate complexity,is employed to study the climate sys-tem response to natural forcings during the pre-industrial era (1000-1800 AD),with a special focus on the surface air temperature (SAT) evolution. Solar radiation and volcanism are the primary natural forcings during this period. In the MPM-2,the solar radiation forcing determines the long-term trend of the climate system change,and the volcanic forcing intensifies (weakens) this trend. Ultimately,the combination of solar and volcanic forcings dominates the long-term changes of the climate system. These results are in good agreement with other model data or temperature reconstructions. Natural forcings can well explain the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). At the large regional scale,the SAT response to natural forcings is almost coincident with that of the Northern Hemisphere. Based on MPM-2 model results,it is concluded that the global climate gradually became cold during the pre-industrial era. However,MPM-2 model results substantially correlate with recon-structed solar and volcanic forcings. Namely,to some great extent,these results strongly rely on the forcing series data we choose. Therefore,in order to accurately simulate the secular variation of the historical climate,it is very important to reconstruct well the solar radiation change and volcanic forc-ing data are well reconstructed for the past 10000 years,at least for the past 2000 years,in addition to the model improvements. The sensitivity study on the abrupt solar radiation change indicates that the increased solar radiation not only strengthens the nonlinear response of SAT,but intensifies the global hydrological cycle. At the same time,the biosphere is also affected obviously.
