The distribution and variations of permafrost in the Xidatan region, the northern permafrost boundary of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, were examined and analyzed using ground penetrating radar(GPR), borehole drilling, an...The distribution and variations of permafrost in the Xidatan region, the northern permafrost boundary of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, were examined and analyzed using ground penetrating radar(GPR), borehole drilling, and thermal monitoring data. Results from GPR profiles together with borehole verification indicate that the lowest elevation limit of permafrost occurrence is 4369 m above sea level in 2012. Compared to previous studies, the maximal rise of permafrost limit is 28 m from 1975 to 2012. The total area of permafrost in the study region has been decreased by 13.8%. One of the two previously existed permafrost islands has disappeared and second one has reduced by 76% in area during the past ~40 years. In addition, the ground temperature in the Xidatan region has increased from 2012 to 2016, with a mean warming rate of ~0.004℃ a^(-1) and ~0.003℃ a^(-1) at the depths of 6 and 15 m, respectively. The rising of permafrost limit in the Xidatan region is mainly due to globalwarming. However, some non-climatic factors such as hydrologic processes and anthropic disturbances have also induced permafrost degradation. If the air temperature continues to increase, the northern permafrost boundary in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau may continue rising in the future.展开更多
Knowledge of the spatial distribution of permafrost and the effects of climate on ground temperature are important for land use and infrastructure development on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP). Different permafrost mo...Knowledge of the spatial distribution of permafrost and the effects of climate on ground temperature are important for land use and infrastructure development on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP). Different permafrost models have been developed to simulate the ground temperature and active layer thickness(ALT). In this study, Temperature at Top of Permafrost(TTOP) model, Kudryavtsev model and modified Stefan solution were evaluated against detailed field measurements at four distinct field sites in the Wudaoliang Basin to better understand the applicability of permafrost models. Field data from 2012 to 2014 showed that there were notable differences in observed ground temperatures and ALTs within and among the sites. The TTOP model is relatively simple, however, when driven by averaged input values, it produced more accurate permafrost surface temperature(Tps) than the Kudryavtsev model. The modified Stefan solution resulted in a satisfactory accuracy of 90%, which was better than the Kudryavtsev model for estimating ALTs. The modified Stefan solution had the potential of being applied to climate-change studies in the future. Furthermore, additional field investigations over longer periods focusing on hydrology, which has significant influence on permafrost thaw, are necessary. These efforts should employ advanced measurement techniques to obtain adequate and extensive local parameters that will help improve model accuracy.展开更多
Permafrost is an important part of the cryosphere,playing an integral role in the hydrologic cycle,ecology,and influencing human activity.Melting of ground ice can drastically change landscapes and associated thaw sub...Permafrost is an important part of the cryosphere,playing an integral role in the hydrologic cycle,ecology,and influencing human activity.Melting of ground ice can drastically change landscapes and associated thaw subsidence may induce instability of infrastructure.The terrain conditions on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are complex,and the spatial distribution of ground ice is highly variable,so knowledge of its abundance and variability is required for impact assessments relating to the degradation of permafrost.This study examined 55 permafrost samples from warm,ice-rich permafrost region in Beiluhe Basin,Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.The samples were examined using Computed Tomography scanning,and the ice content and cryostructure were determined.The results indicated that:1)variation in volumetric ice content was considerable(0%-70%),with a mean value of 17%;2)seven cryostructures were identified,including crustal,vein,lenticular,ataxitic,reticulate and layered cryostructure;3)volumetric ice content varied by cryostructure,with the highest associated with layered and ataxitic cryostructures.Volumetric ice contents were lowest for samples with pore and lenticular cryostructures.This work provides detailed ground ice content and will be helpful for assessing thaw subsidence and infrastructure stability on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.展开更多
The degradation of near-surface permafrost under ongoing climate change on the Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau (QTP) is of growing concern due to its impacts on geomorphological and ecological processes, as well as human activi...The degradation of near-surface permafrost under ongoing climate change on the Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau (QTP) is of growing concern due to its impacts on geomorphological and ecological processes, as well as human activities. There is an increased need for an in-depth understanding of the evolution of permafrost temperature (Ttop) and active-layer thickness (ALT) at a fine scale on the QTP under climate change. This study evaluated the permafrost thermal development over the QTP for the period 1980–2100 at a 1 km^(2) scale using a physically analytical model accounting for both climatic and local environmental factors based on multi-source data. The model results were validated against thermal borehole measurements and baseline maps. The modeled current (2001–2018) permafrost area (Ttop ≤ 0 ℃) covers 1.42 × 10^(6) km^(2) (ca. 56.1% of the QTP land area), 10.1% of which thawed over the historical period 1981–2000. To assess how the ground thermal regime could develop in the future, we utilized the multi-model ensemble mean of downscaled outputs from eight climate models under three Shared Socio-economic Pathways (i.e., SSP126, 245, and 585) in CMIP6 to force the permafrost model. Model results suggest that the current (2001–2018) permafrost extent is likely to dramatically contract in the future period (2021–2100), as indicated by consistent Ttop warming and ALT increasing due to climate changing. About 26.9%, 59.9%, 80.1% of the current permafrost is likely to disappear by the end of the 21st century under SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. The simulation results may further provide new opportunities to assess the future impacts of climate warming on environments and engineering development over the QTP.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant no. 41601069) the State Key Program of National Natural Science of China (Grant No. 41730640)the Independent Project of the State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soils Engineering (SKLFSEZT-32 and SKLFSE-ZQ-37)
文摘The distribution and variations of permafrost in the Xidatan region, the northern permafrost boundary of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, were examined and analyzed using ground penetrating radar(GPR), borehole drilling, and thermal monitoring data. Results from GPR profiles together with borehole verification indicate that the lowest elevation limit of permafrost occurrence is 4369 m above sea level in 2012. Compared to previous studies, the maximal rise of permafrost limit is 28 m from 1975 to 2012. The total area of permafrost in the study region has been decreased by 13.8%. One of the two previously existed permafrost islands has disappeared and second one has reduced by 76% in area during the past ~40 years. In addition, the ground temperature in the Xidatan region has increased from 2012 to 2016, with a mean warming rate of ~0.004℃ a^(-1) and ~0.003℃ a^(-1) at the depths of 6 and 15 m, respectively. The rising of permafrost limit in the Xidatan region is mainly due to globalwarming. However, some non-climatic factors such as hydrologic processes and anthropic disturbances have also induced permafrost degradation. If the air temperature continues to increase, the northern permafrost boundary in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau may continue rising in the future.
基金funded by the State Key Development Program of Basic Research of China(973 Plan,Grant No.2012CB026101)the National Science and Technology Support Plan(Grant Nos.2014BAG05B01,2014BAG05B05)
文摘Knowledge of the spatial distribution of permafrost and the effects of climate on ground temperature are important for land use and infrastructure development on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP). Different permafrost models have been developed to simulate the ground temperature and active layer thickness(ALT). In this study, Temperature at Top of Permafrost(TTOP) model, Kudryavtsev model and modified Stefan solution were evaluated against detailed field measurements at four distinct field sites in the Wudaoliang Basin to better understand the applicability of permafrost models. Field data from 2012 to 2014 showed that there were notable differences in observed ground temperatures and ALTs within and among the sites. The TTOP model is relatively simple, however, when driven by averaged input values, it produced more accurate permafrost surface temperature(Tps) than the Kudryavtsev model. The modified Stefan solution resulted in a satisfactory accuracy of 90%, which was better than the Kudryavtsev model for estimating ALTs. The modified Stefan solution had the potential of being applied to climate-change studies in the future. Furthermore, additional field investigations over longer periods focusing on hydrology, which has significant influence on permafrost thaw, are necessary. These efforts should employ advanced measurement techniques to obtain adequate and extensive local parameters that will help improve model accuracy.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development of China(2017YFA0603101)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant 41971089)。
文摘Permafrost is an important part of the cryosphere,playing an integral role in the hydrologic cycle,ecology,and influencing human activity.Melting of ground ice can drastically change landscapes and associated thaw subsidence may induce instability of infrastructure.The terrain conditions on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are complex,and the spatial distribution of ground ice is highly variable,so knowledge of its abundance and variability is required for impact assessments relating to the degradation of permafrost.This study examined 55 permafrost samples from warm,ice-rich permafrost region in Beiluhe Basin,Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.The samples were examined using Computed Tomography scanning,and the ice content and cryostructure were determined.The results indicated that:1)variation in volumetric ice content was considerable(0%-70%),with a mean value of 17%;2)seven cryostructures were identified,including crustal,vein,lenticular,ataxitic,reticulate and layered cryostructure;3)volumetric ice content varied by cryostructure,with the highest associated with layered and ataxitic cryostructures.Volumetric ice contents were lowest for samples with pore and lenticular cryostructures.This work provides detailed ground ice content and will be helpful for assessing thaw subsidence and infrastructure stability on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.
基金This work was supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA19070504)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41801037)CAS Light of West China Program.We thank the three anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions that helped to improve the manuscript.
文摘The degradation of near-surface permafrost under ongoing climate change on the Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau (QTP) is of growing concern due to its impacts on geomorphological and ecological processes, as well as human activities. There is an increased need for an in-depth understanding of the evolution of permafrost temperature (Ttop) and active-layer thickness (ALT) at a fine scale on the QTP under climate change. This study evaluated the permafrost thermal development over the QTP for the period 1980–2100 at a 1 km^(2) scale using a physically analytical model accounting for both climatic and local environmental factors based on multi-source data. The model results were validated against thermal borehole measurements and baseline maps. The modeled current (2001–2018) permafrost area (Ttop ≤ 0 ℃) covers 1.42 × 10^(6) km^(2) (ca. 56.1% of the QTP land area), 10.1% of which thawed over the historical period 1981–2000. To assess how the ground thermal regime could develop in the future, we utilized the multi-model ensemble mean of downscaled outputs from eight climate models under three Shared Socio-economic Pathways (i.e., SSP126, 245, and 585) in CMIP6 to force the permafrost model. Model results suggest that the current (2001–2018) permafrost extent is likely to dramatically contract in the future period (2021–2100), as indicated by consistent Ttop warming and ALT increasing due to climate changing. About 26.9%, 59.9%, 80.1% of the current permafrost is likely to disappear by the end of the 21st century under SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. The simulation results may further provide new opportunities to assess the future impacts of climate warming on environments and engineering development over the QTP.
