“一带一路”区域气候变化事实、影响及可能风险

“一带一路”区域国家经济、政治发展极不平衡,随着全球气候变暖,区域内的自然环境、气候资源、水资源等都将面临着显著而复杂的变化,并且干旱、洪涝等多种气候灾害是“一带一路”区域可持续发展和重大基础设施建设面临的重大威胁之一。目前,“一带一路”倡议已经进入实质性建设阶段,沿线地区的气候变化及其灾害风险关乎“一带一路”倡议能否顺利实施及亚投行的投资安全。在此背景下,2016—2018年中国科学院地球科学学部实施了“‘一带一路’区域气候变化问题”咨询评议项目,项目针对该区域气候变化的事实、未来变化预估、气候变化的可能影响以及带来的潜在风险等问题进行了系统的调研,并开展了若干分析和研究。经过两年的努力,项目组完成了有关进展报告四份,包括一份总报告和三份分报告。本文扼要地概括和介绍了项目取得的主要成果。

中国西南地区地震-滑坡-泥石流灾害链风险防范措施框架研究

地震-地质灾害链是多灾种的常见表现形式之一,由原生灾害和次生灾害逐级传递,往往导致灾害损失延伸放大,因此灾害链风险防范应成为减灾应急管理的重要组成部分。从多灾种风险因果传递的角度突出灾害链风险防范特征,针对防灾减灾、备灾、响应和恢复重建为全过程的综合风险防范特点,聚焦中国西南地区典型地震-滑坡-泥石流灾害链,整编梳理地震与滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害风险的工程与非工程防范措施,解析识别灾害链各链节风险形成过程与防范关键节点路径,提出并构建了地震-滑坡-泥石流灾害链风险防范措施框架。该框架重点包括链节灾害传递阻断措施、承灾风险损失防控措施与减灾能力建设措施,以规避致灾因子危险性、降低承灾体暴露度与脆弱性、提升减灾能力为防范目标,针对关键节点路径,统筹工程与非工程措施,旨在分解区域灾害链因果传递风险。

基于土地利用及植被覆盖变化的黄河源区生境质量时空变化特征

位于青藏高原腹地的黄河源地区生态环境脆弱,面临生物多样性锐减、生态系统退化等问题,黄河源区生态系统保护及其高质量发展已成为国家的重点战略之一。土地利用与植被覆盖是影响生境质量的重要因素,定量化土地利用方式、强度及格局和植被覆盖格局对生态质量影响的研究越来越受到关注,但其对黄河源区生态质量的耦合效应尚不明确。基于2000年和2015年黄河源区土地利用类型及生长季归一化植被指数(NDVI),采用InVEST模型探究了不同时期黄河源区生境质量时空变化,并采用地理加权回归(GWR)模型揭示了生境质量对土地利用和植被覆盖变化的空间响应特征。结果表明,2000年与2015年土地利用类型变化主要为未利用土地向草地的转移。植被覆盖变化方面,源区生长季NDVI整体上升。从生境质量的空间分布来看,黄河源区生境质量总体呈现南高北低的空间格局,高值分布在南部及中部地区,低值分布在北部布青山、东北部高海拔区及黄河乡的黄河沿岸。相较于2000年,2015年黄河源区生境质量平均提高11.47%。草地面积和NDVI与生境质量均呈显著正相关关系,其中NDVI是提高黄河源区生境质量的重要驱动因子。研究结果突出了NDVI对提高黄河源区生境质量的主导作用,可为未来源区生态保护提供借鉴。

Climatic trends over the Tibetan Plateau during 1971-2000

Trends of annual and monthly temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and aridity index were analyzed to understand climate change during the period 1971-2000 over the Tibetan Plateau which is one of the most special regions sensitive to global climate change. FAO56-Penmen-Monteith model was modified to calculate potential evapotranspiration which integrated many climatic elements including maximum and minimum temperatures, solar radiation, relative humidity and wind speed. Results indicate generally warming trends of the annual averaged and monthly temperatures, increasing trends of precipitation except in April and September, decreasing trends of annual and monthly potential evapotranspiration, and increasing aridity index except in September. It is not the isolated climatic elements that are important to moisture conditions, but their integrated and simultaneous effect. Moreover, potential evapotranspiration often changes the effect of precipitation on moisture conditions. The climate trends suggest an important warm and humid tendency averaged over the southern plateau in annual period and in August. Moisture conditions would probably get drier at large area in the headwater region of the three rivers in annual average and months from April to November, and the northeast of the plateau from July to September. Complicated climatic trends over the Tibetan Plateau reveal that climatic factors have nonlinear relationships, and resulte in much uncertainty together with the scarcity of observation data. The results would enhance our understanding of the potential impact of climate change on environment in the Tibetan Plateau. Further research of the sensitivity and attribution of climate change to moisture conditions on the plateau is necessary.

Identification and Categorization of Climate Change Risks

The scientific evidence that climate is changing due to greenhouse gas emission is now incontestable, which may put many social, biological, and geophysical systems in the world at risk. In this paper, we first identified main risks induced from or aggravated by climate change. Then we categorized them applying a new risk categorization system brought forward by Renn in a framework of International Risk Governance Council. We proposed that ＂uncertainty＂ could be treated as the classification criteria. Based on this, we established a quantitative method with fuzzy set theory, in which ＂confidence＂ and ＂likelihood＂, the main quantitative terms for expressing uncertainties in IPCC, were used as the feature parameters to construct the fuzzy membership functions of four risk types. According to the maximum principle, most climate change risks identified were classified into the appropriate risk types. In the mean time, given that not all the quantitative terms are available, a qualitative approach was also adopted as a complementary classification method. Finally, we get the preliminary results of climate change risk categorization, which might iay the foundation for the future integrated risk management of climate change.

Eco-geographical Regionalization of China:An Approach Using the Rough Set Method

Eco-geographical regionalization involves dividing land into regions by considering both intra-regional consistency and interregional disparity and is based on the pattern of differentiation of eco-geographical elements.Owing to the complexity of the land surface,and the limitation of data and appropriate methods,regions in China have hitherto been mapped manually,meaning that the process of mapping was non-repeatable.To make the regionalization technique repeatable,this study aimed to extract and quantify the expert knowledge of regionalization using an automated method.The rough set method was adopted to extract rules of regionalization based on the existing eco-geographical regionalization map of China,as well as its corresponding meteorological and geological datasets.Then,the rules for regionalization were obtained hierarchically for each natural domain,each temperature zone,and each humidity region.Owing to differences in zonal differentiation,the rule extraction sequence for the eastern monsoon zone and Tibetan Alpine zone was temperature zone first followed by humidity region,with the reverse order being applied for the northwest arid/semi-arid zone.Results show that the extracted indicators were similar to those of the existing(expert-produced)regionalization scheme but more comprehensive.The primary indicator for defining temperature zones was the≥10℃ growing season,and the secondary indicators were the January and July mean temperatures.The primary and secondary indicators for identifying humid regions were aridity index and precipitation,respectively.Eco-geographical regions were mapped over China using these rules and the gridded indicators.Both the temperature zones and humidity regions mapped by the rules show≥85%consistency with the existing regionalization,which is higher than values for mapping by the commonly used simplified method that uses the classification of one indicator.This study demonstrates that the proposed rough set method can establish eco-geographical regionalization that is quantitative and repeatable and able to dynamically updated.

中国北方干湿过渡区生态系统生产力的气候变化风险评估

气候变化风险是人类社会发展面临的严峻挑战,评估识别对气候波动响应敏感且复杂的干湿过渡区生态系统所面临的气候变化风险是一个重要科学问题,对区域气候治理和风险管理具有科学意义。本文利用参与耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的多气候模式多情景数据,通过改进和验证Lund-Potsdam-Jena(LPJ)动态全球植被模型,辨识未来不同时段生态系统生产力的气候变化风险等级及其时空分布,明晰气候因子对净初级生产力(NPP)风险的作用特征。结果表明:未来中远期干湿过渡区生态系统生产力面临的气候变化风险面积将可能扩大,风险等级将可能提升,高排放情景下的风险更加严重,主要表现为NPP距平为负,且仍有继续下降的趋势。尤其是典型浓度路径(RCP8.5)情景下,81.85%的地区将可能面临气候变化风险,54.71%将达到高风险。2071—2099年,RCP8.5高风险区的NPP距平将达到(-96.00±46.95)gC m^(-2)a^(-1),NPP变化速率将达到(-3.56±3.40)gC m^(-2)a^(-1)。干湿过渡区东部平原和内蒙古东部草原区预估将可能成为风险主要集中区域,这些地区未来的植被生长将可能受到气候变化的不利影响,增温加剧和干旱程度加重可能是未来气候变化风险的重要驱动因素。

1949—2019年中国自然地理学与生存环境应用研究进展

自然地理学是一门以基础研究见长的自然科学,其研究对象是与人类生存和发展密切相关的自然环境。中国的自然环境复杂多样,自然地理学家根据国家需求和区域发展在应用基础和应用研究方面同样取得显著成效,为国家重大经济建设、社会发展的规划,宏观生态系统与资源环境保护及区域可持续发展做出了重要贡献。本文总结了1949—2019年中国自然地理学在自然环境区域差异与自然区划、土地利用与覆被变化、自然灾害致灾因子和风险防控、荒漠化过程与防治、黄淮海中低产田改造、冻土区工程建设、地球化学元素异常和地方病防治、自然地理要素定位观测、地理空间分异性识别和地理探测器等方面的实践与应用,指出了未来自然地理学的应用研究方向。

中国干湿格局对未来高排放情景下气候变化响应的敏感性

气候变化影响下干湿状况的区域分异格局如何变化是一个重要科学问题。基于参与耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的5个全球气候模式(GCM),预估了RCP 8.5情景下未来百年中国干湿区面积的变化趋势,分析了干湿格局变化的敏感地区以及对气候变化响应的敏感性。结果表明:未来干湿格局变化以湿润区显著减少、干湿过渡区显著扩张为主要特征,特别是半湿润区面积在远期(2070-2099年)相对基准期(1981-2010年)增加了28.69%。升温2℃～4℃条件下,全国发生干湿类型转变的面积从10.17%增加至13.72%,尤其在淮河流域南部,这里主要受未来潜在蒸散增加的影响,湿润区向南明显退缩从而转变为半湿润区。总体上,随着未来升温加剧,中国干湿格局对气候变化响应的敏感性将可能增强。

汾沁地区蒸散模拟及其时空变化特征

蒸散是水循环和能量循环的重要过程,也是连接土壤-植被-大气系统的关键纽带。气候变化背景下,蒸散的时空分布研究可为地区水资源合理配置及应对气候变化提供科学基础。本文基于结合GRACE(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment)数据的水量平衡方法模拟黄土高原汾沁地区2003—2015年蒸散量,并分析其不同时间尺度的变化特征,结果表明:(1)结合水储量变化的水量平衡方法与忽略水储量变化的水量平衡方法模拟所得蒸散相比,前者时间序列上波动更平稳(变异系数、标准差、极端值分别减少0.12,5.50mm,3.20%),可更精确地反映汾沁地区实际蒸散在年和季节尺度上的变化规律;(2)研究区2003—2015年均蒸散量为530.19mm,空间分布上由北向南大致增加,年际波动较平稳(变异系数为0.08),其中2010年蒸散量最低(478.22mm),2011年蒸散量最高(614.57mm);(3)季节尺度上,夏季平均蒸散量最高(263.36mm),占全年蒸散量的49.67%,波动较平稳;冬季蒸散量最低(19.50mm),离散程度较大;(4)汾沁地区2003—2015年蒸散变化主要受温度、降水的影响,其年际波动主要与降水相关。

Northward-shift of temperature zones in China＇s eco-geographical study under future climate scenario

Despite the well-documented effects of global climate change on terrestrial species＇ ranges, eco-geographical regions as the regional scale of ecosystems have been poorly studied especially in China with diverse climate and ecosystems. Here we analyse the shift of temperature zones in eco-geographical study over China using projected future climate scenario. Projected climate data with high resolution during 1961-2080 were simulated using regional climate model of PRECIS. The number of days with mean daily temperature above 10℃ and the mean temperature of January are usually regarded as the principal criteria to indicate temperature zones, which are sensitive to climate change. Shifts due to future climate change were calculated by comparing the latitude of grid cells for the future borderline of one temperature zone with that for baseline period （1961-1990）. Results indicated that the ranges of Tropical, Subtropical, Warm Temperate and Plateau Temperate Zones would be enlarged and the ranges of Cold Temperate, Temperate and Plateau Sub-cold Zones would be reduced. Cold Temperate Zone would probably disappear at late this century. North bor- derlines of temperature zones would shift northward under projected future climate change, especially in East China. Farthest shifts of the north boundaries of Plateau Temperate, Subtropical and Warm Temperate Zones would be 3.1°, 5.3° and 6.6° latitude respectively. Moreover, northward shift would be more notably in northern China as future temperature increased.

Regional difference of aridity/humidity conditions change over China during the last thirty years

The meteorological data of 616 stations in China were used to calculate the potential evapotranspira-tion and aridity/humidity index by applying the modified FAO-Penman-Monteith model. Regional difference of trends in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and arid-ity/humidity index over China and their interdecadal varia-tions were analyzed from 1971 to 2000. The results show that all the four climatic factors trends have obvious regional difference and interdecadal variations. Annual precipitation during the 30-year period shows an increasing trend over most regions of China, with decreasing trends in potential evapotranspiration and aridity/humidity index. Most regions in China become more humid, especially significant in northern Xinjiang, eastern Tibet, western Sichuan, and northern Yunnan. The average value over China would mask the regional difference of climate change because of the com-plex environmental condition in China. Therefore regional difference should be analyzed to further understand climate change and its impacts. Both water supply and demand need to be considered when attempting to study regional arid-ity/humidity conditions.

Sensitivity of arid/humid patterns in China to future climate change under a high-emissions scenario

Changes in regional moisture patterns under the impact of climate change are an important focus for science. Based on the five global climate models (GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), this paper projects trends in the area of arid/humid climate regions of China over the next 100 years. It also identifies the regions of arid/humid patterns change and analyzes their temperature sensitivity of responses. Results show that future change will be characterized by a significant contraction in the humid region and an expansion of arid/humid transition zones. In particular, the sub-humid region will expand by 28.69% in the long term (2070-2099) relative to the baseline period (1981-2010). Under 2°C and 4°C warming, the area of the arid/humid transition zones is projected to increase from 10.17% to 13.72% of the total of China. The humid region south of the Huaihe River Basin, which is affected mainly by a future increase in evapotranspiration, will retreat southward and change to a sub-humid region. In general, the sensitivity of responses of arid/humid patterns to climate change in China will intensify with accelerating global warming.

Progress and prospects of applied research on physical geography and the living environment in China over the past 70 years (1949-2019)

Physical geography is a basic research subject of natural sciences. Its research object is the natural environment which is closely related to human living and development, and China’s natural environment is complex and diverse. According to national needs and regional development, physical geographers have achieved remarkable achievements in applied basis and applied research, which also has substantially contributed to the planning of national economic growth and social development, the protection of macro ecosystems and resources, and sustainable regional development. This study summarized the practice and application of physical geography in China over the past 70 years in the following fields: regional differences in natural environments and physical regionalization;land use and land cover changes;natural hazards and risk reduction;process and prevention of desertification;upgrading of medium-and low-yield fields in the Huang-Huai-Hai region;engineering construction in permafrost areas;geochemical element anomalies and the prevention and control of endemic diseases;positioning and observation of physical geographical elements;and identification of geospatial differentiation and geographical detectors. Furthermore, we have proposed the future direction of applied research in the field of physical geography.

Intensified risk to ecosystem productivity under climate change in the arid/humid transition zone in northern China

Assessing the climate change risk faced by the ecosystems in the arid/humid transition zone(AHTZ)in northern China holds scientific significance to climate change adaptation.We simulated the net primary productivity(NPP)for four representative concentration pathways(RCPs)using an improved Lund-Potsdam-Jena model.Then a method was established based on the NPP to identify the climate change risk level.From the midterm period(2041–2070)to the long-term period(2071–2099),the risks indicated by the negative anomaly and the downward trend of the NPP gradually extended and increased.The higher the scenario emissions,the more serious the risk.In particular,under the RCP8.5 scenario,during 2071–2099,the total risk area would be 81.85%,that of the high-risk area would reach 54.71%.In this high-risk area,the NPP anomaly would reach–96.00±46.95 gC·m-2·a-1,and the rate of change of the NPP would reach–3.56±3.40 gC·m-2·a-1.The eastern plain of the AHTZ and the eastern grasslands of Inner Mongolia are expected to become the main risk concentration areas.Our results indicated that the management of future climate change risks requires the consideration of the synergistic effects of warming and intensified drying on the ecosystem.

Design and analysis of an ONOFF variable structure controller for AQM routers supporting TCP flows

Active queue management （AQM） can maintain smaller queuing delay and higher throughput by purposefully dropping packets at intermediate nodes. Most of the existing AQM schemes follow the probability dropping mechanism originating from random early detection （RED）. This paper develops a novel packet dropping mechanism for AQM through designing an ONOFF controller applying the variable structure control theory. Because the binary ONOFF controller can considerably simplify the manipulation on the AQM router, it is helpful for implementing the high performance router. The design principles of ONOFF controller are discussed in detail. The guidelines towards parameter settings are presented. The performance is extensively evaluated and compared with other well-known controllers through simulations and theoretical analysis. The results demonstrate that the ONOFF controller is responsive and robust against external disturbances, and is insensitive to variances of the system parameters. Therefore, it is very suitable for the time- varying network system, and at the same time, it can also keep the instantaneous queue length at a desired level with rather small oscillations, which is conducive to achieving the technical objectives of AQM.