中国温带草地物候对气候变化的响应及其对总初级生产力的贡献

气候变暖引起的植物物候变化影响了陆地生态系统功能和碳循环。目前研究着重关注温带和热带森林物候变化趋势、驱动因素,关于干旱半干旱地区草地物候变化及其对生态系统总初级生产力(gross primary productivity, GPP)影响仍知之甚少。因此,开展草地植物物候与生产力之间的关系研究对预测草地生态系统响应未来气候变化和区域碳循环至关重要。基于1982—2015年气象资料和GIMMS NDVI3g数据,分析了中国温带草原植被返青期(start of the growing season, SGS)和枯黄期(end of the growing season, EGS)变化及其对气候的响应,并借助一阶差分法量化物候对GPP动态变化的贡献。结果表明:(1)季前1—2个月的夜间温度增温会显著提前SGS,而当月至季前2个月的白天温度对SGS有着微弱的促进作用;季前3个月的累积降水对SGS提前作用最为强烈,累积太阳辐射在各个时期对SGS影响相对较弱。(2)不同季前时间尺度昼夜温度对草地EGS均表现出相反的作用,短期累积降水对EGS起到显著延迟的区域范围最大,太阳辐射随着季前时间的增加对草地枯黄期的延迟作用逐渐转变为提前作用。(3)EGS对草地GPP年际变化趋势的相对贡献率强于返青期。研究结果有助于深化陆地生态系统与气候变化、碳循环之间相互作用的认识,为草地适应未来气候变化和生态建设提供科学依据。

1982—2015年中国温带不同草地植被枯黄期对极端气候事件的响应

随着极端气候事件频率和强度的增加,植被物候正在发生深刻的变化。然而,植被枯黄期(EGS)对极端气候的响应机制目前尚未厘清,特别是对于干旱半干旱地区的草地而言。因此,聚焦我国温带草地,基于1982—2015年全球监测与模型研究工作组归一化植被指数(GIMMS NDVI3g)长时间序列数据提取草地物候参数,并分析其时空变化规律;运用随机森林模型等方法探究温带草地EGS对极端气候变化的响应特征。结果表明:(1)全区多年平均EGS主要发生于270—290儒略日(DOY),59.8%的区域呈延迟趋势,其中显著延迟(P<0.05)的区域分布在新疆天山、阿尔泰山一带和准噶尔盆地西部、黄土高原北部、呼伦贝尔高原的西部和东北小兴安岭。(2)EGS与极端气温暖极值(日最低气温的最大值、日最高气温的最大值、暖夜日数、暖昼日数)之间均以广泛的正相关关系为主;相比之下,极端降水事件与EGS之间的关系相对比较复杂,这与各草地类型自身的生理策略和所处环境密切相关。(3)整体而言,持续干旱日数、气温日较差和暖夜日数对全域草地EGS动态变化具有极大的重要性。就不同草地类型而言,温带草甸草原主要受到气温日较差的影响,温带山地草甸和温带沼泽化草甸EGS变化主要受日最高气温的最大值的影响,日最低气温的最大值和暖夜日数分别对温带草丛和温带荒漠草原的影响最大;持续湿润日数和持续干旱日数则分别对生长在水分限制地区的温带盐生草甸和温带典型草原的EGS产生强烈作用。

Economic Development Status of the Countries along the Belt and Road and Their Correlations with Population and Carbon Emissions

The construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road are important measures for allowing China to expand its opening up to the outside world under the background of economic globalization.Based on this consideration,and from the perspective of geo-economics,this study uses a variety of mathematical statistical methods to analyze the economic development status and differences among the 30 countries along the Belt and Road.In addition,the correlations between GDP,population and carbon emissions in these countries are also analyzed.The results show that the current economic development levels of the countries along the Belt and Road are quite variable;the gaps between the indicators of the economic development of the countries along the Belt and Road are convergent;the GDP,population,and carbon emissions of the countries along the Belt and Road each showed an overall upward trend during the study period,and the changes in these three values showed significant correlations.Across all countries,the correlation coefficients between GDP and population(0.989),between GDP and carbon emissions(0.995),and between population and carbon emissions(0.993),all indicate that the correlations between GDP,population and carbon emissions are very high.Among them,GDP has the highest correlation with carbon emissions,reaching 0.995.Regression analysis shows that the value of R^2 reached 0.995,indicating that the regression fitting effect is very good and the calculation result is highly reliable.Based on these results,this paper proposes the following two suggestions:(1)Promoting the Belt and Road initiative should handle the relationship between developing and developed countries;and(2)Promoting the Belt and Road initiative should also be linked to China’s domestic regional development strategy.