Ensemble Forecast for Tropical Cyclone Based on CNOP-P Method:A Case Study of WRF Model and Two Typhoons

In this paper,we set out to study the ensemble forecast for tropical cyclones.The case study is based on the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation related to Parameter(CNOP-P)method and the WRF model to improve the prediction accuracy for track and intensity,and two different typhoons are selected as cases for analysis.We first select perturbed parameters in the YSU and WSM6 schemes,and then solve CNOP-Ps with simulated annealing algorithm for single parameters as well as the combination of multiple parameters.Finally,perturbations are imposed on default parameter values to generate the ensemble members.The whole proposed procedures are referred to as the PerturbedParameter Ensemble(PPE).We also conduct two experiments,which are control forecast and ensemble forecast,termed Ctrl and perturbed-physics ensemble(PPhyE)respectively,to demonstrate the performance for contrast.In the article,we compare the effects of three experiments on tropical cyclones in aspects of track and intensity,respectively.For track,the prediction errors of PPE are smaller.The ensemble mean of PPE filters the unpredictable situation and retains the reasonably predictable components of the ensemble members.As for intensity,ensemble mean values of the central minimum sea-level pressure and the central maximum wind speed are closer to CMA data during most of the simulation time.The predicted values of the PPE ensemble members included the intensity of CMA data when the typhoon made landfall.The PPE also shows uncertainty in the forecast.Moreover,we also analyze the track and intensity from physical variable fields of PPE.Experiment results show PPE outperforms the other two benchmarks in track and intensity prediction.