Accident causation analysis is of great importance for accident prevention.In order to improve the aviation safety,a new analysis method of aviation accident causation based on complex network theory is proposed in th...Accident causation analysis is of great importance for accident prevention.In order to improve the aviation safety,a new analysis method of aviation accident causation based on complex network theory is proposed in this paper.Through selecting 257 accident investigation reports,45 causative factors and nine accident types are obtained by the three-level coding process of the grounded theory,and the interaction of these factors is analyzed based on the“2-4”model.Accordingly,the aviation accident causation network is constructed based on complex network theory which has scale-free characteristics and small-world properties,the characteristics of causative factors are analyzed by the topology of the network,and the key causative factors of the accidents are identified by the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)method.The comparison results show that the method proposed in this paper has the advantages of independent of expert experience,quantitative analysis of accident causative factors and statistical analysis of a lot of accident data,and it has better applicability and advancement.展开更多
In order to reduce the accident rate of consumer-grade unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs)in daily use scenarios,the accident causes are analyzed based on the accident cases of consumer-grade UAVs.By extracting accident ca...In order to reduce the accident rate of consumer-grade unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs)in daily use scenarios,the accident causes are analyzed based on the accident cases of consumer-grade UAVs.By extracting accident causing factors based on the Grounded theory,the relationship between these factors is analyzed.The Bayesian network for consumer-grade UAV accidents is constructed.With the Grounded theory-Bayesian network,the probability of four types of accidents is inferred:fall,air collision,disappearance,and personal injury.With the posterior probability of each factor being reversely reasoned,the causal chain with the maximum probability of each accident is obtained.After the sensitivity of each factor is analyzed,the key nodes in the network accordingly are inferred.Then the causing factors of consumer-grade UAV accidents are analyzed.The results show that the probability of fall accident is the highest,the fall accident is associated with the probabilistic maximum causal chain of personal injury,and the sensitivity analysis results of each type of accident as the result node are inconsistent.展开更多
基金supported by the Civil Aviation Joint Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.U1533112)。
文摘Accident causation analysis is of great importance for accident prevention.In order to improve the aviation safety,a new analysis method of aviation accident causation based on complex network theory is proposed in this paper.Through selecting 257 accident investigation reports,45 causative factors and nine accident types are obtained by the three-level coding process of the grounded theory,and the interaction of these factors is analyzed based on the“2-4”model.Accordingly,the aviation accident causation network is constructed based on complex network theory which has scale-free characteristics and small-world properties,the characteristics of causative factors are analyzed by the topology of the network,and the key causative factors of the accidents are identified by the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)method.The comparison results show that the method proposed in this paper has the advantages of independent of expert experience,quantitative analysis of accident causative factors and statistical analysis of a lot of accident data,and it has better applicability and advancement.
基金supported by the Fun⁃damental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.3122022103).
文摘In order to reduce the accident rate of consumer-grade unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs)in daily use scenarios,the accident causes are analyzed based on the accident cases of consumer-grade UAVs.By extracting accident causing factors based on the Grounded theory,the relationship between these factors is analyzed.The Bayesian network for consumer-grade UAV accidents is constructed.With the Grounded theory-Bayesian network,the probability of four types of accidents is inferred:fall,air collision,disappearance,and personal injury.With the posterior probability of each factor being reversely reasoned,the causal chain with the maximum probability of each accident is obtained.After the sensitivity of each factor is analyzed,the key nodes in the network accordingly are inferred.Then the causing factors of consumer-grade UAV accidents are analyzed.The results show that the probability of fall accident is the highest,the fall accident is associated with the probabilistic maximum causal chain of personal injury,and the sensitivity analysis results of each type of accident as the result node are inconsistent.
