Because of the recent growth in ground-level ozone and increased emission of volatile organic compounds(VOCs),VOC emission control has become a major concern in China.In response,emission caps to control VOC have been...Because of the recent growth in ground-level ozone and increased emission of volatile organic compounds(VOCs),VOC emission control has become a major concern in China.In response,emission caps to control VOC have been stipulated in recent policies,but few of them were constrained by the co-control target of PM_(2.5)and ozone,and discussed the factor that influence the emission cap formulation.Herein,we proposed a framework for quantification of VOC emission caps constrained by targets for PM_(2.5)and ozone via a new response surface modeling(RSM)technique,achieving 50%computational cost savings of the quantification.In the Pearl River Delta(PRD)region,the VOC emission caps constrained by air quality targets varied greatly with the NOxemission reduction level.If control measures in the surrounding areas of the PRD region were not considered,there could be two feasible strategies for VOC emission caps to meet air quality targets(160μg/m^(3)for the maximum 8-hr-average 90th-percentile(MDA8-90%)ozone and 25μg/m^(3)for the annual average of PM_(2.5)):a moderate VOC emission cap with<20%NOxemission reductions or a notable VOC emission cap with>60%NOxemission reductions.If the ozone concentration target were reduced to 155μg/m^(3),deep NOxemission reductions is the only feasible ozone control measure in PRD.Optimization of seasonal VOC emission caps based on the Monte Carlo simulation could allow us to gain higher ozone benefits or greater VOC emission reductions.If VOC emissions were further reduced in autumn,MDA8-90%ozone could be lowered by 0.3-1.5μg/m^(3),equaling the ozone benefits of 10%VOC emission reduction measures.The method for VOC emission cap quantification and optimization proposed in this study could provide scientific guidance for coordinated control of regional PM_(2.5)and O_(3)pollution in China.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2018YFC0213905)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41805068)。
文摘Because of the recent growth in ground-level ozone and increased emission of volatile organic compounds(VOCs),VOC emission control has become a major concern in China.In response,emission caps to control VOC have been stipulated in recent policies,but few of them were constrained by the co-control target of PM_(2.5)and ozone,and discussed the factor that influence the emission cap formulation.Herein,we proposed a framework for quantification of VOC emission caps constrained by targets for PM_(2.5)and ozone via a new response surface modeling(RSM)technique,achieving 50%computational cost savings of the quantification.In the Pearl River Delta(PRD)region,the VOC emission caps constrained by air quality targets varied greatly with the NOxemission reduction level.If control measures in the surrounding areas of the PRD region were not considered,there could be two feasible strategies for VOC emission caps to meet air quality targets(160μg/m^(3)for the maximum 8-hr-average 90th-percentile(MDA8-90%)ozone and 25μg/m^(3)for the annual average of PM_(2.5)):a moderate VOC emission cap with<20%NOxemission reductions or a notable VOC emission cap with>60%NOxemission reductions.If the ozone concentration target were reduced to 155μg/m^(3),deep NOxemission reductions is the only feasible ozone control measure in PRD.Optimization of seasonal VOC emission caps based on the Monte Carlo simulation could allow us to gain higher ozone benefits or greater VOC emission reductions.If VOC emissions were further reduced in autumn,MDA8-90%ozone could be lowered by 0.3-1.5μg/m^(3),equaling the ozone benefits of 10%VOC emission reduction measures.The method for VOC emission cap quantification and optimization proposed in this study could provide scientific guidance for coordinated control of regional PM_(2.5)and O_(3)pollution in China.
