How likely is septic shock to develop in a patient with Fournier’s gangrene?A risk prediction model based on a 7-year retrospective study

Background Fournier’s gangrene(FG)is a rare life-threatening form of necrotizing fasciitis.The risk factors for septic shock in patients with FG are unclear.This study aimed to identify potential risk factors and develop a prediction model for septic shock in patients with FG.Methods This retrospective cohort study included patients who were treated for FG between May 2013 and May 2020 at the Sixth Affiliated Hospital,Sun Yat-sen University(Guangzhou,China).The patients were divided into a septic shock group and a non-septic shock group.An L1-penalized logistic regression model was used to detect the main effect of important factors and a penalized Quadratic Discriminant Analysis method was used to identify possible interaction effects between different factors.The selected main factors and interactions were used to obtain a logistic regression model based on the Bayesian information criterion.Results A total of 113 patients with FG were enrolled and allocated to the septic shock group(n=24)or non-septic shock group(n=89).The best model selected identified by backward logistic regression based on Bayesian information criterion selected temperature,platelets,total bilirubin(TBIL)level,and pneumatosis on pelvic computed tomography/magnetic resonance images as the main linear effect and Na^(+)×TBIL as the interaction effect.The area under the ROC curve of the probability of FG with septic shock by our model was 0.84(95%confidence interval,0.78–0.95).The Harrell’s concordance index for the nomogramwas 0.864(95%confidence interval,0.78–0.95).Conclusion We have developed a prediction model for evaluation of the risk of septic shock in patients with FG that could assist clinicians in identifying critically ill patients with FG and prevent them from reaching a crisis state.