The objective of this study was to examine the impacts of climate and land use changes on wateravailability and sediment loads for a water supply reservoir in northern Morocco using data-intensive simulation models in...The objective of this study was to examine the impacts of climate and land use changes on wateravailability and sediment loads for a water supply reservoir in northern Morocco using data-intensive simulation models in a data-scarce region. Impacts were assessed by comparing the simulated water and sediment entering the reservoir between the future period 2031-2050 and the 1983-2010 reference period. Three scenarios of land use change and two scenarios of climate change were developed in the Tleta watershed. Simulations under current and future conditions were performed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The simulations showed that climate change will lead to a sig-nificant decrease in the annual water supply to the reservoir (-16.9% and -27.5%) and in the annual volume of sediment entering the reservoir (-7.4% and -12.6%), depending on the climate change sce-narios tested. The three scenarios of land use change will lead to a moderate change in annual water inflow into the reservoir (between-6.7% and +6.2%), while causing a significant decrease in sediment entering the reservoir (-37%to-24%). The combined impacts of climate and land use changes will cause a reduction in annual water availability (-9.9%to-33.3%) and sediment supplies (-28.7%to-45.8%). As a result, the lifetime of the reservoir will be extended, but at the same time, the risk of water shortages will increase, especially from July to March. Therefore, alternative water resources must be considered.展开更多
The authors have agreed to credit Fabrice Vinatier authorship for this paper.The list of authors and affiliations should appear as follows:Fatiha Choukri a,Damien Raclot a,b.Mustapha Naimi a,Mohamed Chikhaoui a,Joao P...The authors have agreed to credit Fabrice Vinatier authorship for this paper.The list of authors and affiliations should appear as follows:Fatiha Choukri a,Damien Raclot a,b.Mustapha Naimi a,Mohamed Chikhaoui a,Joao Pedro Nunes c,Frederic Huard d,Cecile Herivaux e,Fabrice Vinatier b,Mohamed Sabir f,Yannick Pepin a,b a IAV Hassan II,Department of Natural Resources and Environment,Madinat Al Irfane,Rabat,Morocco b LISAH,Univ Montpellier,INRAE,IRD,Institut Agro,Montpellier,France c CE3C-Centre for Ecology,Evolution and Environmental Changes,Faculdade de Ciencias,Universidade de Lisboa,1749-016,Lisboa,Portugal d INRAE-AgroClim,228 Route de TAerodrome,CS 40509,84914,Avignon,Cedex 9,France e BRGM,Univ Montpellier,1039 Rue de Pinville,34000,Montpellier,France f ENFI,bd Moulay Youssef,Tabriquet,SALE,Morocco The authors would like to apologise for any inconvenience caused.展开更多
基金This work benefits from the financial support of JEAI“Vecteurs”funded by IRD institution,ALMIRA(ANR-12-TMED-0003 funded by ANR)MASCC(through ARIMNET2,an ERA-NET funded by the European Union’s Seventh Framework Program for research,technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no.618127)projects.J.P.Nunes was further supported by a research grant from the Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia(IF/00586/2015)
文摘The objective of this study was to examine the impacts of climate and land use changes on wateravailability and sediment loads for a water supply reservoir in northern Morocco using data-intensive simulation models in a data-scarce region. Impacts were assessed by comparing the simulated water and sediment entering the reservoir between the future period 2031-2050 and the 1983-2010 reference period. Three scenarios of land use change and two scenarios of climate change were developed in the Tleta watershed. Simulations under current and future conditions were performed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The simulations showed that climate change will lead to a sig-nificant decrease in the annual water supply to the reservoir (-16.9% and -27.5%) and in the annual volume of sediment entering the reservoir (-7.4% and -12.6%), depending on the climate change sce-narios tested. The three scenarios of land use change will lead to a moderate change in annual water inflow into the reservoir (between-6.7% and +6.2%), while causing a significant decrease in sediment entering the reservoir (-37%to-24%). The combined impacts of climate and land use changes will cause a reduction in annual water availability (-9.9%to-33.3%) and sediment supplies (-28.7%to-45.8%). As a result, the lifetime of the reservoir will be extended, but at the same time, the risk of water shortages will increase, especially from July to March. Therefore, alternative water resources must be considered.
文摘The authors have agreed to credit Fabrice Vinatier authorship for this paper.The list of authors and affiliations should appear as follows:Fatiha Choukri a,Damien Raclot a,b.Mustapha Naimi a,Mohamed Chikhaoui a,Joao Pedro Nunes c,Frederic Huard d,Cecile Herivaux e,Fabrice Vinatier b,Mohamed Sabir f,Yannick Pepin a,b a IAV Hassan II,Department of Natural Resources and Environment,Madinat Al Irfane,Rabat,Morocco b LISAH,Univ Montpellier,INRAE,IRD,Institut Agro,Montpellier,France c CE3C-Centre for Ecology,Evolution and Environmental Changes,Faculdade de Ciencias,Universidade de Lisboa,1749-016,Lisboa,Portugal d INRAE-AgroClim,228 Route de TAerodrome,CS 40509,84914,Avignon,Cedex 9,France e BRGM,Univ Montpellier,1039 Rue de Pinville,34000,Montpellier,France f ENFI,bd Moulay Youssef,Tabriquet,SALE,Morocco The authors would like to apologise for any inconvenience caused.
