A comparative analysis of epidemiological characteristics of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 in Saudi Arabia

In this study,we determine and compare the incubation duration,serial interval,pre-symptomatic transmission,and case fatality rate of MERS-CoV and COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia based on contact tracing data we acquired in Saudi Arabia.The date of infection and infector-infectee pairings are deduced from travel history to Saudi Arabia or exposure to confirmed cases.The incubation times and serial intervals are estimated using parametric models accounting for exposure interval censoring.Our estimations show that MERS-CoV has a mean incubation time of 7.21(95%CI:6.59–7.85)days,whereas COVID-19(for the circulating strain in the study period)has a mean incubation period of 5.43(95%CI:4.81–6.11)days.MERS-CoV has an estimated serial interval of 14.13(95%CI:13.9–14.7)days,while COVID-19 has an estimated serial interval of 5.1(95%CI:5.0–5.5)days.The COVID-19 serial interval is found to be shorter than the incubation time,indicating that pre-symptomatic transmission may occur in a significant fraction of transmission events.We conclude that during the COVID-19 wave studied,at least 75%of transmission happened prior to the onset of symptoms.The CFR for MERS-CoV is estimated to be 38.1%(95%CI:36.8–39.5),while the CFR for COVID-191.67%(95%CI:1.63–1.71).This work is expected to help design future surveillance and intervention program targeted at specific respiratory virus outbreaks,and have implications for contingency planning for future coronavirus outbreaks.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions and their relevance in the COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Saudi Arabia and Arab Gulf countries

In the early stages of the pandemic,Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Arab Gulf region relied on non-pharmaceutical therapies to limit the effect of the pandemic,much like other nations across the world.In comparison to other nations in the area or globally,these interventions were successful at lowering the healthcare burden.This was accomplished via the deterioration of the economy,education,and a variety of other societal activities.By the end of 2020,the promise of effective vaccinations against SARS-CoV-2 have been realized,and vaccination programs have begun in developed countries,followed by the rest of the world.Despite this,there is still a long way to go in the fight against the disease.In order to explore disease transmission,vaccine rollout and prioritisation,as well as behavioural dynamics,we relied on an age-structured compartmental model.We examine how individual and social behaviour changes in response to the initiation of vaccination campaigns and the relaxation of non-pharmacological treatments.Overall,vaccination remains the most effective method of containing the disease and resuming normal life.Additionally,we evaluate several vaccination prioritisation schemes based on age group,behavioural responses,vaccine effectiveness,and vaccination rollout speed.We applied our model to four Arab Gulf nations(Saudi Arabia,Bahrain,the United Arab Emirates,and Oman),which were chosen for their low mortality rate compared to other countries in the region or worldwide,as well as their demographic and economic settings.We fitted the model using actual pandemic data in these countries.Our results suggest that vaccinations focused on the elderly and rapid vaccine distribution are critical for reducing disease resurgence.Our result also reinforces the cautious note that early relaxation of safety measures may compromise the vaccine's short-term advantages.