Frequency and size change of ice–snow avalanches in the central Himalaya:A case from the Annapurna Ⅱ glacier

Glaciers have retreated and shrunk in High Mountain Asia since the mid-20th century because of global warming,leading to glacier instability and hazardous iceesnow avalanches.However,the complex relationship between iceesnow avalanches and factors such as climate and potential triggers are difficult to understand because of the lack of observational data.Here,we addressed iceesnow avalanches on the Annapurna Ⅱ glacier in Nepal,Central Himalaya.We constructed an iceesnow avalanche history using long-term multi-source remote sensing images(1988-2021)and mapped the velocity fields of glaciers using cross-correlation analysis on SAR and optical images.Then,we investigated the impact of climate change and earthquakes on the frequency and size of iceesnow avalanches.The results demonstrate that the frequency of iceesnow avalanches has increased from 10 in 1988 to 27 in 2020,but the average area of iceesnow avalanche deposits has decreased by approximately 70%,from 3.4×10^(5) m^(2) in 1988 to 1.2×10^(5) m^(2) in 2020.The evolutionary characteristic of ice avalanches is linked to the impact of glacier retreat(reduction in ice material supply)and increased activity under climate change.The glacier movement velocity controls the size of iceesnow avalanches and can be set as an indicator for iceesnow avalanche warnings.On the Annapurna Ⅱ glacier,an iceesnow avalanche occurred when the glacier velocities were greater than 1.5 m d^(-1).These results offer insights into iceesnow avalanche risk assessment and prediction in high-mountain areas,particularly in regions characterised by dense glacier distribution.

汛期地铁行车荷载作用下越江隧道离散元分析（英文）

目的:揭示汛期及常水位条件下地铁随机振动荷载作用下越江隧道管片及周边岩土体的动力响应及变形机制。创新点:建立越江地铁隧道二维离散元模型,并采用随机振动荷载模拟地铁行车荷载,揭示汛期和常水位条件下地铁行车荷载对越江隧道稳定性的影响。方法:采用离散元方法进行数值仿真。1.基于室内三轴试验和离散元数值拟合得到土层的各细观参数;2.采用不同接触模型对隧道内钢轨、轨枕、管片以及周边岩土体进行建模;3.将地铁随机振动荷载施加在钢轨上,对管片及周边岩土体不同区域内颗粒的受力及变形进行监测并分析。结论:1.位于隧道上半部分的周边岩土体颗粒振动偏大;2.随着距离的增大,振动波在周边岩土体内先放大后减小;3.汛期水位条件下地铁行车荷载对管片和周边岩土体的振动影响较小,但是对隧道变形影响较大。