佳木斯市春季旱涝灾害统计特征及旱涝发生趋势预测

【目的】研究全球气候变化背景条件下佳木斯市旱涝灾害演变规律。【方法】以1951年以来佳木斯市春季逐日降水资料及国家气候中心74项环流指数实时资料为依据,用降水距平百分率Ri和Z指数法分析佳木斯市春季旱涝类型、出现频率及时空分布特点并建立春季降水预报方程。【结果】1961—2015年,佳木斯市所属县(市)出现大涝和大旱的频率在72%～96%,1996年以前出现大旱频率较高,而1996年以后出现大涝的概率更大;佳木斯市在年降水量减少的同时,春季3—5月降水变化呈上升趋势,在55年的线性变化趋势中,每10年增加约9.6%;从地域分布看,佳木斯西部地区比东部更易发生旱涝且转换更加频繁;佳木斯春季旱涝趋势主要受前一年春冬季大气环流的影响,以Minitab 16筛选的环流特征量为因子,建立春季降水量预报方程,其预测春季旱涝类型准确率为63.6%。【结论】研究结果可为佳木斯市春季旱涝灾害的短期气候预测提供参考依据。

Change Characteristics of Extreme Climate Events in Jiamusi City during 1951-2010

Based on the extreme climate index method issued by World Meteorological Organization,12 indices of Jiamusi during 1951-2010 were evaluated,and the extreme climate events and their variations were obtained. The results showed that in recent 60 years,summer days( SU),extremely minimum temperature( TNN),extremely maximum temperature( TXX),warm nights( TN90) and warm days( TX90) displayed a significantly increasing tendency,while frost days( FD),cold nights( TN10) and cold days( TX10) showed a decreasing tendency. Changing trends of the all precipitation indices were not significant. The extremely low temperature events and extreme strong precipitation were related with El Nino.