Development and validation of a nomogram model for predicting the risk of gallstone recurrence after gallbladder-preserving surgery

Background:The high incidence of gallstone recurrence was a major concern for laparoscopic gallbladderpreserving surgery.This study aimed to investigate the risk factors for gallstone recurrence after gallbladder-preserving surgery and to establish an individualized nomogram model to predict the risk of gallstone recurrence.Methods:The clinicopathological and follow-up data of 183 patients who were initially diagnosed with gallstones and treated with gallbladder-preserving surgery at our hospital from January 2012 to January 2019 were retrospectively collected.The independent predictive factors for gallstone recurrence following gallbladder-preserving surgery were identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis.A nomogram model for the prediction of gallstone recurrence was constructed based on the selected variables.The C-index,receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and calibration curve were used to evaluate the predictive power of the nomogram model for gallstone recurrence.Results:During the follow-up period,a total of 65 patients experienced gallstone recurrence,and the recurrence rate was 35.5%.Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the course of gallstones>2 years[odds ratio(OR)=2.567,95%confidence interval(CI):1.270-5.187,P=0.009],symptomatic gallstones(OR=2.589,95%CI:1.059-6.329,P=0.037),multiple gallstones(OR=2.436,95%CI:1.133-5.237,P=0.023),history of acute cholecystitis(OR=2.778,95%CI:1.178-6.549,P=0.020)and a greasy diet(OR=2.319,95%CI:1.186-4.535,P=0.014)were independent risk factors for gallstone recurrence after gallbladder-preserving surgery.A nomogram model for predicting the recurrence of gallstones was established based on the above five variables.The results showed that the C-index of the nomogram model was 0.692,suggesting it was valuable to predict gallstone recurrence.Moreover,the calibration curve showed good consistency between the predicted probability and actual probability.Conclusions:The nomogram model for the prediction of gallstone recurrence might help clinicians develop a proper treatment strategy for patients with gallstones.Gallbladder-preserving surgery should be cautiously considered for patients with high recurrence risks.

Impact of B-mode-ultrasound-guided transhepatic and transperitoneal cholecystostomy tube placement on laparoscopic cholecystectomy

BACKGROUND B-mode-ultrasound-guided percutaneous cholecystostomy(PC)may be performed by a transhepatic or transperitoneal approach,called percutaneous transhepatic gallbladder drainage(PHGD)and percutaneous transperitoneal gallbladder drainage(PPGD),respectively.We compared the impact of PC related to the route of catheter placement on subsequent laparoscopic cholecystectomy(LC).AIM To compare the impact of PC related to the route of catheter placement on subsequent LC.METHODS We retrospectively studied 103 patients with acute calculous cholecystitis who underwent scheduled LC after PC between January 2010 and January 2019.Group I included 58 patients who underwent scheduled LC after PHGD.Group II included 45 patients who underwent scheduled LC after PPGD.Clinical outcomes were analyzed according to each group.RESULTS Baseline demographic characteristics did not differ significantly between both groups(P>0.05).Both PHGD and PPGD were able to quickly resolve cholecystitis sepsis.Group I showed significantly higher efficacy than group II in terms of lower pain score during puncture(3.1 vs 4.5;P=0.001)and at 12 h follow-up(1.5 vs 2.2;P=0.001),lower rate of fever within 24 h after PC(13.8%vs 42.2%;P=0.001),shorted operation duration(118.3 vs 139.6 min;P=0.001),lower amount of intraoperative bleeding(72.1 vs 109.4 mL;P=0.001)and shorter length of hospital stay(14.3 d vs 18.0 d;P=0.001).However,group II had significantly lower rate of local bleeding at the PC site(2.2%vs 20.7%;P=0.005)and lower rate of severe adhesion(33.5%vs 55.2%;P=0.048).No significant differences were noted between both groups regarding the conversion rate to laparotomy,rate of subtotal cholecystectomy,complications and pathology.CONCLUSION B-mode-ultrasound-guided PHGD is superior to PPGD followed by LC for treatment of acute calculous cholecystitis,with shorter operating time,minimal amount of intraoperative bleeding and short length of hospital stay.